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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac -- Sharefin, 17:10:35 02/05/02 Tue

White House Warns of Increase in Debt, Risk Threat at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

The Bush administration said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have funded their rapidly growing asset portfolios by increasing their debt outstanding and warned that the two companies may be taking on more risk with subprime loans.

The Bush budget said increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios "imply increased credit and interest-rate exposure." It said the two firms have tried to limit their exposure using various risk-management techniques. But these tools, the administration said, "do not eliminate all the risk associated with funding long-term, mostly fixed-rate assets that have uncertain payment streams."

"Furthermore," the budget added, "the hedging transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk into counterparty risk [the risk that the counterparty of a hedging transaction fails to honor the contract]. Thus, the GSEs' management of counterparty risk is of increasing importance."


Chris Thompson -- Sharefin, 16:49:05 02/05/02 Tue

Chris Thompson, Chairman, Gold Fields


Gold rally -- Sharefin, 16:46:31 02/05/02 Tue

Gold rally to 18-mth high buoys NY precious complex

COMEX gold on Tuesday broke above the safe-haven highs it hit after the Sept. 11 attacks, toying with the $300 an ounce psychological level in New York as investors diversified out of a nervous U.S. stock market.
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The April COMEX futures contract rallied to an 18-month high at $299.80 and spot bullion hit a two-year peak, catalyzed initially as so-called ``Enron-itus,'' -- Wall Street jitters about corporate earnings and accounting irregularities -- prompted a move into hard assets.

``It started off at the open with funds,'' said a floor broker. ``It's a combination of stock market jitters and the fact that mining companies won't be hedging so much any more. It keeps resistance out of the market.''

Commodity funds worked themselves into a bullish froth as they chased the benchmark gold contract up $9, or 3 percent, to a settlement of $299.10 an ounce.

It was its highest since its early days in late Aug. 2000. The gold contract that was active at the time of the attacks registered a high at $300 in the first panicky trading after the twin towers collapsed.

``I think the market is a little bit overdone on the upside after three strong rallies,'' said David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Salomon Smith Barney. ``I'm skeptical as far as the upside above $300 without some additional supportive news -- whether it's the equities dropping for whatever reason -- that could be an ingredient for higher gold prices.''

The Dow Jones industrial average closed off 1 point, steadying after dropping 220 points on Monday on fears that the collapse of Enron Corp. would open the door to more revelations about accounting malpractice at U.S. corporations.

Underlying gold's strength over the last week is mounting optimism that the gold mining industry is having a change of heart about the practice of hedging, or selling gold forward, which many investors believe was one reason for gold's dismal performance in recent years.

Spot gold closed at $298.00/75, its highest since fetching $301.50 on Feb. 24 2000, up from London's afternoon fix at at $291.95 and Monday's New York close at $289.10/60.

South African gold giant AngloGold Ltd said Monday it expects to reduce its hedge book by more than a third to about 10 million ounces in the next year, though it retained the ability to step up hedging if prices become attractive.

Rinehimer said that gold priced near $300 raised the specter of producer selling. ``You might have a different take of what producers are going to do at these prices.''

Hedging with forward sales and derivatives allows producers to lock in prices for reserves still in the ground and remain profitable when underlying gold prices fall. But it also can work against their interests because accelerating supply to the market makes it harder for gold to go up.


WGC Report -- Sharefin, 16:44:54 02/05/02 Tue

WGC Report - pdf file

Concerns over corporate integrity continue to blow
chill through the equity markets and the associated
weakness in the Dow and the dollar last night were
both supportive for gold, which once again
experienced mixed support in New York, with
professionals funds noted among the buyers. The
chart shows the ratio between gold and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average since the start of the year;
to date, gold has outperformed the Dow by 7.4%.


Goldenbar Report -- Sharefin, 16:38:46 02/05/02 Tue

Goldenbar Report - pdf format


AngloGold -- Sharefin, 16:32:29 02/05/02 Tue

AngloGold hedging cut rallies gold

South African gold giant AngloGold Ltd said on Monday it would trim its gold hedge book to about 10 million ounces in the next 12 months from about 16 million ounces, fuelling a rally in bullion prices.

"The general perception in the market is that hedge selling is drawing to a close," one trader said. Another trader said AngloGold's move was potentially more bullish for the metal.

AngloGold trimmed its hedge book by 3.5 million ounces in 2001 as it followed other mining companies seeking greater exposure to any upside that could occur in bullion markets.

This year, the company projects gold production of 5.8 million ounces at average cash cost of US$154 an ounce.

"In the past there has always been a gap between cash costs and the hedge price. That is now coming down and AngloGold is asking itself 'why hedge?" mining analyst Keith Goode of Eagle Research said.


Gold -- Sharefin, 16:30:05 02/05/02 Tue

Gold breaks weekend hoodoo

New York played the optimist on Monday and helped bid the price through the key $290 level. The primary short-term driver remains a shaky outlook for American equities where it is guaranteed that a thorough laundering of company balance sheets to rub out the spotty stains of "special purpose vehicles" - the off-balance-sheet partnerships that brought Enron low - will raise the number of Chapter 11 filings to breathtaking levels.

Special attention is being focused on banking giant JP Morgan Chase, which is thought to be suffering potentially mortal wounds from its exposure to a number of deals gone bad. Talk is that JP Morgan's active derivatives operation has magnified its exposure to the Argentina and Enron crises, among others, and that the true accounting for that will only be apparent in the weeks to come.


Enron -- Sharefin, 16:02:54 02/05/02 Tue

Post-Enron equity fears fuel 'flight from risk'

Equity markets in the US and Europe witnessed a "flight from risk" on Tuesday, with investors shunning any stocks that faced accounting or financial concerns.

Worries about the quality of corporate accounts in the wake of Enron's collapse were accompanied by fears that heavily indebted companies will either collapse or be forced to raise large amounts of equity to restore the health of their balance sheets.

The extent of investor concern was demonstrated when General Electric, the world's largest company, was forced to dismiss questions about the transparency of its accounting by again reaffirming its earnings growth targets.

The fall-out from the collapse of Enron has made investors far more cautious about the quality of corporate profits, particularly in the US, where accounting standards were previously assumed to be the best in the world.

Jay Pelosky, global strategist at Morgan Stanley, said: "The challenge to US accounting and regulatory standards could lead international investors to start to question the premium valuation they are currently paying for exposure to US assets in general and US stocks in particular."


Miners finally get Street's attention -- Sharefin, 15:58:38 02/05/02 Tue

Miners finally get Street's attention

Against a backdrop of fiscal devastation in Japan and ticking financial time bombs in the United States, long-forgotten gold mining stocks are attracting the attention of Wall Street money managers.

"I'm getting a lot more calls," says Pierre Lassonde, who later this month will become president of Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), soon to be the world's largest gold producer upon completion of a merger. "When I was in Europe last year, I saw more interest in gold stocks than I have in five years."

As the metal's spot price reached a two-year high of $299 an ounce Tuesday afternoon, new figures pointed to heavy share accumulation of the largest gold-mining companies. Weekly money flows into those companies are at their highest point in more than three years, technical analyst Clark Yingst at Joseph Gunnar & Co. in New York says.

"Clearly, investors are unsettled by reports of fiscal distress," says Yingst, who tracks cumulative money flows based on whether investors are paying progressively higher or lower prices for a stock. Japan's yen took a 1.5 percent fall against the dollar Tuesday, while that country's benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225, hit an 18-year low.

"The premium for safety is rising again," John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, said Tuesday from New York. "Enron, Japan, Argentina, Kmart, maybe a large bank soon, it's all there for investors to see."

The gold mining group, as measured by the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, could rise another 15 percent to 20 percent in coming weeks, technical analyst say. The index, along with gold-mining indexes in Canada, South Africa and Australia, is soaring as gold attempts to surpass the elusive $300 level.

The 11 stocks in the so-called XAU index have on average gained more than 15 percent in the past 10 trading days. Companies such as Newmont, which will merge into two other gold-mining companies later this month, are seeing their average trading activity swell to 2.5 times their three-month daily average.

"My phone is ringing, that's for sure," says Lassonde, a former Toronto fund manager and co-founder of Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining (CA:FN: news, chart, profile), one of the two companies merging with Newmont in a $2.5 billion transaction.

The $20 or so gain in the price of the metal in the past two weeks has fueled a frenzy of activity in mining circles. Lassonde Tuesday pointed to the $100 million-plus of Canadian financings late in January for three small gold companies. Once the three-way merger of Denver-based Newmont, Franco-Nevada and Australia's Normandy Mining is completed later this month, Lassonde hopes to sell some mines from a Battle Mountain Gold purchase and other assets, about $750 million worth, to an eager gold industry.

"Our timing, I think, is propitious," Lassonde said from Toronto. "Goldcorp. (GG: news, chart, profile) and Meridian (MDG: news, chart, profile), lots of gold companies, need to replace their reserves - they need assets." See more on the gold rush.

Wall Street and London-based money managers are showing up for mining companies' conference calls in greater numbers. On Monday's earnings conference call from Johannesburg, "close to 50" money managers listened to Gold Fields Ltd. Chairman and CEO Chris Thompson discuss the South African company's record-breaking $67 million of quarterly profit, according to Cheryl Martin, a Gold Fields (GOLD: news, chart, profile) vice president.

Meanwhile, attendance at next week's metals and mining conference in Capetown, South Africa, will be at least 30 percent greater than last year's gathering, organizer Sandy Lawrence said Tuesday. See the conference details.

"People forget how far gold stocks can move in a rally," says Adrian Day, president of $60 million Global Strategic Management in Maryland. "You go back to when the general stock market crashed in '73 and '74 and gold went to $180 or so from $110 in two years, and the major gold mining companies quadrupled and quintupled in price. Homestake went to $60 from $11, and the South African companies did the same thing." Homestake Mining is now part of Barrick Gold (ABX: news, chart, profile), a merger completed last year.

"The fact is, there are a limited number of gold mining companies, I think $50 billion worth of market capitalization if you were to add them all up, the majors and the juniors," says Day, who populates about a third of his clients' portfolios with gold stocks. In comparison, General Electric, the world's largest stock market company, is valued at more than $350 billion.

Technical analyst Yingst sees the XAU, now above 67, its highest point since February 2000, reaching 72. "But first I think we'll see some backing and filling," he said about investors who are likely to take profits in their gold mining stocks.

Lassonde: the case for cash flow

Investor interest in gold mining stocks comes in the thick of rising prices for the equities. "The last five days volume for Barrick Gold and Placer Dome (PDG: news, chart, profile) have seen average daily volume that has exceeded the one-month average daily volume of each company by 20 percent and 24 percent, respectively," Chris Johnson, senior quantitative analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, said Tuesday. "This has occurred while the price of the stocks have increased by 6.3 and 9.1 percent, a sign that investors have been accumulating theses shares."

The question for serious investors is whether gold-mining stocks can sustain their rally, which has boosted equity prices to 30 and in some cases 40 times their yearly pre-tax profits. Lassonde at Franco-Nevada/Newmont says he is frank about this question, which gets posed by fund managers scrambling to buy gold shares. Gold-mining stocks have made gold-based mutual funds the best performing sector for much of the past 14 months.

"Let's look at Newmont since I know that one best," says Lassonde, a former engineer who has been in the gold business for more than three decades. "If gold goes to $350 an ounce, (Newmont's) pre-tax cash flow would be about $1.6 billion, or $4 a share on a pro-forma basis." Given that major gold mining companies sell for about 12 times cash flow, "the stock would have to go to between $50 and $60," he said.

Which brings the question: Can spot gold prices surpass $300 an ounce, a level not seen since February 2000? The price of spot gold, $299 on Tuesday afternoon, was more than $6 above what professional analysts call an area of major resistance. The most active gold futures contract, meanwhile, hit $299.80 Tuesday, then settled at $299.10, a gain of $9 for the day. See metals report.

"One of these times it's going to get through resistance," says Robert Bishop, longtime editor of Gold Mining Stock Report. "I think right now we are seeing speculation that one or more mining companies covering hedges." So-called hedges allow gold mining companies to lock in higher prices for their metal. The practice encourages lending of the metal by bullion and central banks, thus adding to price weakness.

Anglogold (AU: news, chart, profile), one of the world's largest miners and the industry's most prolific user of forward-sale hedging in times of weak prices, reduced the amount of gold it sells forward by 19 percent in 2001, or some 3.4 million ounces. Earlier in the week, Anglogold said it could unwind as many 4.5 million ounces this year. Newmont, Gold Fields and other large producers have sworn off the practice of hedging.

Caesar Bryan, manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX: news, chart, profile) in New York, says he will head to Japan next week. Japanese consumers have quadrupled the amount of gold they are buying ahead of new government rules that will limit bank guarantees on cash deposits, starting in May.

"Gold is the ultimate hard asset, and one day, sooner than later, it will go through $300 an ounce," says Bryan, whose $27 million fund is up 22 percent since Jan. 2. He expects shares of companies that reduce their hedge books to become more attractive to investors in coming months. But he still prefers totally unhedged producers. His fund's largest holdings are Newmont, South Africa's Harmony Mining (HGMCY: news, chart, profile) and Gold Fields, all of them known as straight-shooters in the industry.

"The whole idea that gold is a useless investment has become pervasive," Bryan says. "I think that's about to end."


Gold futures near $300 an ounce -- Sharefin, 15:55:34 02/05/02 Tue

Gold futures near $300 an ounce

"Continuing doubt regarding equities and nefarious accounting techniques has raised the specter of further bankruptcies in the U.S.," said Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com.

Gold has "crossed over the long-term trend line extending from the Feb. 9, 1996, high of $417," said Prescott Crocker, manager of the Evergreen Precious Metals Fund

"This price action kicks in the shorts to accelerate their covering process and accelerates the price move up in a short term spike," said Crocker, whose $58 million fund has gained 20 percent since Jan. 2. Crocker was referring to short-sellers who have bet against the metal in recent months.

Crocker expects gold's gains to last another two days and "possibly extend to $320, which should then be followed by a consolidation of price in the $295 to $320 level for some period of time."

Some analysts pointed to waning investor confidence in U.S. capital markets. "I would note that the political situation in Washington is becoming more and more anti-business, which is a negative for the U.S. financial markets and, by extension, the U.S. dollar," said Kenneth Landon, a currencies analyst with Deutsche Banc in Tokyo.


Vox: Gold stocks -- Sharefin, 15:50:42 02/05/02 Tue

Vox: Gold stocks

What is the fast-beating pulse of the gold-stocks market telling investors?

For conspiracy-minded gold bugs, it announces the day of reckoning, foretold by countless exotic theories (ranging from the absurd to the tantalizing) about how and why gold has languished in the dank cellar of investors' affection for two decades.

For more sober-minded enthusiasts, who settle for railing against hedgers and central bankers, it's dj vu all over again. Although the two camps are separated by the magnitude of their suspicions, they share a view: Gold prices have been manipulated for too long and recent trends suggest that manipulation will come to a quick end.

For the sober camp, the rigging of the bullion market comes in various forms, notably forward gold sales by producers and the efforts of central banks - the U.S. Federal Reserve Board mainly - to "stabilize" gold prices, the idea being that a fast-rising U.S. dollar gold price would suggest a lack of confidence in a mighty greenback, which the U.S. economic imperial engine relies upon.

Years of weak and falling gold prices have yielded predictable consequences: After rising almost relentlessly for 25 years, gold production will drop, slightly this year, then precipitously.

Gold mining firms, by failing to earn their costs of capital, have depleted their coffers and shut themselves off from new money. The casualty rate is high. Planned production is being mothballed, and growth now comes mainly from acquisitions, hence the rapid pace of consolidation in the industry. Gold mining is not truly economic at prices below $400 (U.S.) an ounce, so no new production will be contemplated any time soon. The lag time between contemplation and production, is years long.

The other side of this hopeful argument is that confidence in the U.S. dollar will wane along with a fall in asset prices and a rise in mistrust in the system.

Confidence in the dollar is easy to foster with a federal funds rate of, say, 7 per cent; it's a sight more challenging today, after 11 interest rate cuts.

The historic parallel is the 1970s. After a lengthy period of low gold prices (depressed, some say, by central bank interference), production fell, confidence in the U.S. dollar deteriorated, and gold soared to more than $600 an ounce from $35

There are variations to these arguments (the spectrum of which investors can behold at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com and other sites). But in general, they don't seem easily dismissible, even after years of unrequited gold-bug enthusiasm. Investors who like these arguments, however, should not rush out and blindly buy gold stocks. TSE-listed gold companies are hardly bargains, with enterprise values that, in some cases, exceed the value of reserves by a factor of two.

This is not to say that they won't rise. A premium to the undiscounted net asset value isn't unusual, although it offends the value investor.


Enron -- Sharefin, 15:47:41 02/05/02 Tue

'Enron factor' lifts gold to four-month high

Rhona O'Connell at the World Gold Council said that the "Enron factor" seemed to be fuelling demand for gold as concern about accounting practices and a string of fourth-quarter results from US blue-chip companies had brought "bouts of fragility" to the financial markets.


It Might Be Dirty....... -- AuNuggets, 15:39:25 02/05/02 Tue

It might be dirty, but it sure is pretty!






Good Post from Hambone -- Delta.au, 13:08:29 02/05/02 Tue


Date: Tue Feb 05 2002 08:40
Hambone (Where we are.) ID#353300:
Copyright © 2002 Hambone/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In a bull market for bullion and PMs.

The last few days have seen geometric rises in many gold stocks and no doubt many bugs are wondering what comes next. Correction? Higher? Crash? To da Moon? Most of us ( I include myself ) handle losses much better than we do profits. So the question here comes to "what do I do?'.

The way I see it, the major strategies are these:
1. Do nothing.
2. Sell everything and take profits.
3. Sell part and hold part.
4. Buy more now.
5. Hold what you have and buy more on a dip.
6. Ignore the gold bull and trade.

Actually, #1 isn't as bad a strategy as you think, particularly if you're out of cash for 4 and 5. It's a bull market, and bull markets always bail you out. You cannot lose ( long term ) by holding. #2 is foolish. The worst mistake you can make is being out in a bull market. #3 is a strategy followed by many bugs on the board, who hold core positions and trade with a percentage of capital. Good if you're nimble and know what you're doing. However, you will make mistakes - the most costly of which will be selling too soon. #4 is really #1 for those with cash not invested. #5 is good - if you're sure a dip is coming. #6 is for the uptick's of this world. Good enought to call every turn? Have at it.

This move has been so fast and sharp, many bugs are scared - scared not to take profits and scared to do so. Remember, this bull is going to be a long one. Volitility is going to increase, so you ain't seen nothin' yet. Corrections will be sharp and painful. Rises will be glorious. Be anything but out of this market.


George Ure -- Sharefin, 07:36:12 02/05/02 Tue

Weekly report


The Gap -- Deadly Dennis Wheeler, 07:34:48 02/05/02 Tue

There is a gap on the April gold chart that was just about filled this morning. The gap occurred in October when the Sep-Oct runup was over. This would be a natural stopping point for gold -- short term, as it is now up for the sixth day in a row.

DD Wheeler


Enron -- Sharefin, 07:33:50 02/05/02 Tue

'Enronitis' sweeps through Wall Street


Top of the Gold Market? (Goldbrick & Sharefin) -- Olehickok, 07:08:21 02/05/02 Tue

Talking about top of gold market? he he he ... i love it. Are you guys serious? A chart would be XAU, when it hits around 150, but then i think we're going to go past 200 on it this time. :-)
Better indicator would be when everybody and their brother is talking about PM and POG and and buying mining stocks. Your barber, the cab driver, grocery clerks, politicians, used car salesmen, secretaries, and Casey talking about grim reaper coming to ruin the party. But you guys already know all this.


NEM going to $120 & Eldorado going to $15 C -- olehickok, 06:35:23 02/05/02 Tue

This humble goldbug's been waiting for this for 6 years. XAU to 90-100 by May, slight pullback thru the summer then to 200 by March '03. Get on board before it's too late.


Dow Vs Gold -- Slowman, 05:09:24 02/05/02 Tue

It appears the general accepted accounting practice for corporations ,especially large ones, is not being used. The rumor is they are using pro forma. This should bring the house of cards down and insure the bankruptcy of J.P.Morgan, BUT , I do not believe the U.S. govt. will let them go under. All of this should help the nice gold advance we have recently had and scare the public into investing into the precious metals sector as they try to PRESERVE WEALTH. This should last for at least the next 5 years. However, its kinda hard to buy silver stocks now when silver is so cheap. I myself am trying to get my FRIENDS to purchase coin or .999 silver but take physical delivery. GOOD LUCK TO ALL111111


Sharefin, it is good to see some civility. -- thomas v. privette, 22:45:08 02/04/02 Mon

Here's to your forum! It is great to be a goldbug. Though it is said we are crazy, at least we are richer for it.


Japanese yen is fixed to silver -- G-san, 22:40:30 02/04/02 Mon

http://www.tanaka.co.jp/soba/index2.html

Check out the url for tanaka kikinzoku in Japan. The yen price of silver has been virtually unchanged for the last two and a half years. Always in a trading range of sell 21 yen per gram and buy 18.With most days having 0% change. Silver also follows this trend as well as fluctuations in the yen the price remains the same. Despite what the chart says the price remains the same in yen per gram. Go back day after day and the silver price will be unchange. By the way silver is on the far right at the top of the price list


From Mining Web -- Delta.au, 22:21:45 02/04/02 Mon


Fridays have been awkward for gold. If the metal is up in London morning trade, you can be sure it will be down in New York afternoon trade. If New York can't damp the fire on Friday, it is satisfied to lay over until Monday when enough metal or negative sentiment is poured into the market to restore the downtrend.
Things have changed since May when the weekend hoodoo asserted itself time and again.

New York played the optimist on Monday and helped bid the price through the key $290 level. The primary short-term driver remains a shaky outlook for American equities where it is guaranteed that a thorough laundering of company balance sheets to rub out the spotty stains of "special purpose vehicles" - the off balance sheet partnerships that brought Enron low - will raise the number of Chapter 11 filings to breathtaking levels.

Special attention is being focused on banking giant JP Morgan Chase which is thought to be suffering potentially mortal wounds from its exposure to a number of deals gone bad. Talk is that JP Morgan's active derivatives operation has magnified its exposure to the Argentina and Enron crises, among others, and that the true accounting for that will only be apparent in the weeks to come.

There is reason to agree, but equal reason to be skeptical. As the Economist noted recently, a surprising result of Enron's collapse is how quickly and easily the credit derivatives market digested it. The point is forceful when you consider the sheer weight on the market given the string of collapses. By now, according to doomsayers, the entire banking structure would have collapsed.

Clearly, gold buyers are less optimistic. Recent defaults, whether sovereign or corporate, are taking on the appearance of an accelerating trend that can be traced to the Asian contagion of 1997. When those dominoes fell, they were effectively mopped up save for another outbreak in 1998. Now there has been a succession of failures that are more difficult to isolate and contain.

Simply tot up the write-downs, losses and inventory destocking reported worldwide in the past 15 months and it is obvious that the system is under severe strain. You cannot erase that quantum of wealth, no matter how widely dispersed, and expect the key US and European economies to resume the 1990s style growth. Gluttony has its consequences - Japan is living proof and, ironically, its citizens continue to convert yen into gold at a furious pace.

Also encouraging is the fact that gold buying was strong despite significant long liquidation. The World Gold Council reports that according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report gold longs cut their positions by 49 tonnes (1.6moz) to 90.3 tonnes (2.9moz) while shorts bought a meager 7 tonnes (0.23moz) leaving them with 51.7 tonnes (1.7moz). The next few days will be critical in determining whether the shorts can defend stops above $290 an ounce.

UBS Warburg notes a notable absence of "professional" selling into the higher price which is particularly encouraging. By traditional measures, $287 an ounce would have brought on a flood of selling driven by producer forward selling. But the hedging game has turned around with producers closing hedges rather than opening or maintaining them. AngloGold has announced that it will reduce its hedge book significantly, but the reduction will take most of a year.

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B5700020532?OpenDocument


Sharefin -- Cyclist, 22:12:25 02/04/02 Mon

I have been taking 50% off the table today and tomorrow
the rest.The gains have been spectacular and will wait
for a pullback.With any bullmarket the pullback is usually vicious and fast.Different indicators are flashing a pullback, with one particular reliable cycle giving a top
today and tomorrow.
Today the gold stocks were running a bit to fast ahead of the gold price as well.The bullmarket has a long way to go yet..:)


Cyclist -- Sharefin, 19:51:48 02/04/02 Mon

I don't watch goldstocks to close but I would wonder about a short term top on Tuesday.

The GOX & HUI have only just broken clear of their prior highs classifing this as a breakout and the XAU is about to do the same.

Likewise with the POG breaking clear - VIP.
Also I think that gold & goldstocks will surprise to the upside through coming rallies not due to their own merrits but rather because of general equities slumping.

There's an exodus from most all stocks across the globe at the moment and one of the few sectors to shine is gold.
Of late there's been plenty of reminders as to the gold sector doing well last year and by now the concept of gold & goldstocks being a profitable refugee status is clear too a large percentage of investors as say opposed to a year or even two ago.

So currently there's a wealth of money seeking a few stocks and so therefore the momentum should be strong.

Also of notice is the volumes in the gold stocks this last week and the way it's expanding as the prior highs in the XAU/HUI/GOX are taken out.

Here's the charts of the three indices breaking out.
XAU


HUI


GOX



Goldbrick -- Sharefin, 19:30:18 02/04/02 Mon

I would guess that the Dow/Gold ratio will print the top out in gold pretty well as what we are seeing is a flight from stocks to gold as a refugee status whilst paper is burning.

But this would be like standing way back from the trees and observing the whole forrest.
A very broad observation.

As to trying to guage the top with a closer perspective I would be watching the gold indices/gold for when they show the turning points.
Gold Indices vs Gold


gold/intered should be gold/interest -- GoldBrick, 18:37:54 02/04/02 Mon

correction


When we get to the top -- GoldBrick, 18:35:46 02/04/02 Mon

Is there a graph or graphs in your collection that you consider one of the better indicators of a top? Gold/intereds, gold/cpi, gold/dow? Other that everyone talking about it and wanting to get in, how might you get out of PM stocks.


Tick-by-tick charts -- Sharefin, 18:29:24 02/04/02 Mon

Here's the latest tick-by-tick charts.
Please note that I've changed the links above where it says Gold Chart & Silver Chart to link into these tick-by-tick charts.
I'll update them daily or whenever they appear interesting & stop posting them into the body of this forum.

Gold - 60 minutes


Silver - 60 minutes



Press masks world's fiscal distress -- Sharefin, 18:24:42 02/04/02 Mon

Press masks world's fiscal distress

Banker, who also edits LDC Bond Watch, told me Monday he sees "bankruptcies ahead galore -- a mountain of debt is weighing on corparates globally, not just the U.S.A., and banks like JPM Chase and Deutsche Bank are being weighed down. Watch JP Morgan Chase," he says ominously.

---------
Note that the two companies mentioned above carry the greatest weight in gold derivatives.


Gold futures top $290, shares up -- Sharefin, 18:21:09 02/04/02 Mon

Gold futures top $290, shares up


GE engulfed in 'Enron ripple' -- Sharefin, 18:19:00 02/04/02 Mon

GE engulfed in 'Enron ripple'


GATA -- Sharefin, 18:16:43 02/04/02 Mon

Former Patriot Wide Receiver Invites Washington Press to GATA PATRIOT GOLD Luncheon


Silver NEXT? -- Cobra, 18:04:12 02/04/02 Mon

I think so....It Should catch on Very shortly, the Silver Stocks May be the next to move good. PASS,SIL,SSRI,HL,AEM too...These bear watching the next few days...If they begin to move......AG will too.....Posted Monday---9pm 02-04
An Opinion ONLY. Don't do it because I said so. Due your own Due Diligence.


BOE Gold Auctions-a plausible, probable raison d'être -- FOG, 10:52:27 02/04/02 Mon

For a number of reasons, not the least of which the method of payment [in USDs, deposited at the New York Fed] one subscribed to the notion that the BOE's sale of gold was about something other than demonetization of gold, and questioned whether the gold sold was UK or US.

However, in the interests of accurate reportage, one is compelled to share ANOTHER plausible, indeed probable, explanation.


"On March 6, 1957, the Secretary of the Treasury signed an agreement extending to the British government a line of credit, "The Government of the United States will extend to the Government of the United Kingdom a line of credit of $3,750,000,000 which may be drawn upon at any time between the effective date of this Agreement" [COMMENT: This was a handsome sum of money in those days.]

Provision for deferment of annual installments:

"i) In any calendar year after December 31, 1956, in which the Government of the United Kingdom advises the Government of the United States that it finds that a deferment is necessary in view of the present and prospective conditions of international exchange and the level of its gold and foreign exchange reserves, the Government of the United Kingdom may defer the payment of the annual installment for that year of principal repayment and interest specified under Section 4.

***The first of any such deferred installments shall be paid on December 31, 2001, and the others shall be paid annually thereafter, in order.***

(iv) Payment of deferred installments may be accelerated, in whole or in part, at the option of the Government of the United Kingdom."
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/22/286l.notes.html


Gold serving a historical role, clearing debt.


intermediary cycle top -- Cyclist, 07:29:59 02/04/02 Mon

Tuesday for gold.


Tyco -- Sharefin, 07:05:36 02/04/02 Mon

$8 billion in Tyco deals not disclosed


Bush Seeks To Restrict Hill Probes Of Sept. 11 -- Sharefin, 04:45:50 02/04/02 Mon

Bush Seeks To Restrict Hill Probes Of Sept. 11

President Bush asked House and Senate leaders yesterday to allow only two congressional committees to investigate the government's response to the events of Sept. 11, officials said.

The president said the inquiry should be limited to the House and Senate intelligence committees, whose proceedings are generally secret. Senate Democratic leaders want a broader investigation, involving some committees that would be free to air their findings. The focus of the committee probes is likely to center on intelligence failures preceding the terrorist attacks that killed about 3,100 people.


Nikkei -- Sharefin, 04:29:32 02/04/02 Mon

Tokyo stocks end down on NEC woes, reform doubts

Tokyo stocks fell sharply for a second straight session on Monday, with NEC Corp leading a broad-based decline amid fading hopes for a speedy recovery in the tech sector and worries over Japan's structural reforms.

The tech-sensitive Nikkei average shed 1.63 percent or 159.50 points to 9,631.93, while the capital-weighted TOPIX index dropped 1.33 percent to a 17-year low of 943.51.

The Nikkei, which fell 2.06 percent in the previous session, ended numerically below the U.S. blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average for a second day .

It ended Friday trade below the Dow Jones's last closing level for the first time since August 6, 1957


Gympie Gold -- Sharefin, 04:13:58 02/04/02 Mon

Gympie Gold Beats Production Records in First Quarter With AIM Listing

Nice gold - shame about the hedges.
Specimen in quartz:

The finished product:



Hedging Programmes -- Sharefin, 03:56:10 02/04/02 Mon

Auditors Should Monitor Hedging Programmes And Ensure Shareholders Are Fully Informed

The debacle over Enron which threatens to bring down Arthur Andersen, one of the big five accountants, raises the question of just how close such advisers get to client companies and how stringent are their health checks on them, their advice and their follow-ups. Everyone is human, even accountants, and they want to hear the vote at the annual general meeting which gives them the audit job for another year.

In the case of mining companies this supervisory/advisory role is particularly pertinent in the case of hedging. How was it , for instance, that Mark Keatley, the finance director at Ashanti, managed to convince his fellow shareholders and the company's auditors , that he was a genius and should be allowed to keep the full details of Ashanti's hedging programme to himself? Apparently all the documentation was kept in a locked room to which only he had access on the grounds that it was all just too clever and complicated for anyone else to understand.

His counterparts at the banks involved in these hedges must have known what was going on and auditors pride themselves on their efficient intelligence so it is amazing that they heard nothing and took no action. At the time Leo Kaplan, the chief bullion dealer at LFG Bullion Services in Chicago, apparently reckoned that the banks were short no less than 10 million ounces of gold. And this was just on forward sales based on the bear market in gold which had been in process for a number of years. Presumably there were puts and calls in size to flesh out Mr Keatley's grandiose scheme.

The time has now come, however, when gold is not going steadily downwards and the hedgers'chickens may becoming home to roost. The South African gold producer Avgold, for instance, has not participated in the effective boom in the price of gold that has resulted from the fast depreciating rand. Unlike the non-hedgers such as Harmony and Gold Fields, it has hedged around 1.23 million ounces of gold. As a result its shareholders had minimal exposure to the spot rand gold price which rose by 23 per cent between the September and December quarters.

The banks bear a large responsibility for this as they automatically trot out a hedging programme whenever they lend money to producers, either to develop a new mine or expand an existing one. They want belt and braces so that they know the funds are in place to pay off loans and interest even before the gold is produced. It is of no interest to them that the companies and their shareholders do not get the benefit of any subsequent rise in the price of gold. This begs two questions. First, how would the mark-to-market positions of such producers stand if analyst Andy Smith is right and the gold price averages US$315/oz this year? And what contingency plans have auditors in place to notify shareholders of any major changes?

In Australia there is a deal of speculation that Newcrest may be the next target for one of the big boys. On the face of it Newcrest looks a plum with annual production rising to just under 2 million ozs if Ridgeway, Telfer and Boddington all perform up to scratch. But its hedge book has problems and a negative mark-to-market value of A$594 million may deter acquisitors. Even some analysts appear perplexed by the complications of its US dollar currency hedges and its Australian denominated forward sales, so how are shareholders expected to understand?

Closer to home Navan Mining, the disaster of London's AIM market, was ordered by Deutsche Bank to close off its base metal hedges in November. This action is generally though to have hastened its demise the following month. But were shareholders informed of this unilateral action? Not on your nellie. Questions to the finance director Chris Neal by Minews as to whether or not this was price sensitive and deserved to be announced met with an embarrassed silence interspersed with huffs and puffs. Surely the company's auditors would have to be informed of such a change in policy, and if so, it would be interesting to know why shareholders were left out.

Post- Enron, auditors will know that the eyes of the investment world are on them. In the case of gold producers they will be expected to monitor hedging programmes on an ongoing basis. Shareholders in some companies are going to be in for nasty shocks if Andy Smith's forecast comes true. Better they should understand the position now rather than later..


sro -- Sharefin, 03:52:51 02/04/02 Mon

Thanks for the article.
Gold: The Sovereign Power of the Veto


Live prices & live prices - spot the difference. -- Sharefin, 03:41:16 02/04/02 Mon

Here's three separate charts all coming from different feeds showing the 24 hour live gold price.

First there's the tick-by-tick chart.
This chart cleary shows the recent two tops with the last one higher than the first and the price topping at $287.10


Then there's the UK feed which only shows the last peak but it shows the peak topping at $287.30


Then there's the Kitco feed which shows the two peaks but here it shows the second peak as the same as the first and also it looks like the price stopped at approx $286.80
It doesn't show the price as going over $287 at all.


The first chart looks bullish, the second one more so but the last one almost looks bearish.

A similar story to the price of silver when it topped a few weeks ago.
Hmmmmmm!!!!!


Gold: The Sovereign Power of the Veto -- sro, 01:23:07 02/04/02 Mon

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north82.html


Thanks Dan & Kevin -- Sharefin, 00:09:39 02/04/02 Mon

Your comments are appreciated along with a lot of others offering support.

Needless to say there's plenty of fine folk who appreciate this new forum.


XGO -- Sharefin, 00:02:46 02/04/02 Mon

Australian Gold Index Rises to Highest in Five Years

Australia's index of gold stocks rose to its highest in almost five years, led by Normandy Mining Ltd. and Goldfields Ltd., after bullion prices rose to a two-week high.

The precious metal rose 2.4 percent last week to $286.250 Friday, its highest closing price since Jan. 16, partly on expectations repurchasing of the metal by companies changing their hedging strategy will reduce available supply.


Gold Fields -- Sharefin, 00:00:31 02/04/02 Mon

Gold Fields Limited Reports Record Earnings for Second Quarter F2002

- Earnings tripled up from R203 to R640 million
(US$24 million to US$67 million)

- Operating profit doubled up from R498 million to R1,064 million
(US$59 million to US$110 million)

- Attributable gold output up 11% from 886,000 ounces to 984,000 ounces

- Cash costs down 16% from US$200/oz to US$169/oz

- Rand gold price up 24% from R73,646/kg to R91,627/kg

- Acquisition of St Ives, Agnew and Damang completed will increase attributable gold production to more than 4.5 million ounces per annum


Thank you -- Kevin Thomson, 23:41:28 02/03/02 Sun

I have been reading the Kitco, Gold Eagle and other Sites for at least 18 months. I very rarely post messages as I do not wish to be pulled apart on a website forum.

I think the concept of this Website is great and I wish to thank you for creating the forum. It saves time and avoids all the off topic stuff. The only observation I would make is that even gold/silver will not run forever and intermarket analysis is valuable

I have been charting with Metastock for over 10 years however the reassurance that high quality opinions can provide helps me retain confidence in my positions.

Once again thank you and I intend to read the articles you post daily.

Regards

Kevin Thomson
Wellington,
New Zealand


World Gold Council -- Sharefin, 23:40:25 02/03/02 Sun

World Gold Council Siezing Golden Opportunity In Japan

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Japanese are quickly running out of safe places to stash their hard earned yen. Stock prices have slumped to levels not seen in almost two decades, several money-management funds have sunk below par value due to their exposure to Enron Corp. (ENE) and this April the government will pull the plug on its blanket guarantee for bank deposits in the event of a bank failure.

Recognizing a golden opportunity when they see one, the World Gold Council has launched an all-out media blitz to convince the Japanese that gold could be the prudent alternative to simply stuffing more money under their futons - and these efforts are starting to pay off.

"In recent months the Japanese have been showing tremendous interest in gold as an investment vehicle," said Itsuo Toshima, Japan's regional director for the World Gold Council. "I don't think we have seen this level of interest since the heyday of Japan's bubble economy in the late 1980s."

In fact, the council estimates that Japan's investment demand for gold in the third quarter of 2001 soared 91% to 22 tons from the same period a year earlier.

Toshima pointed out that Japanese investors have lost their appetite for risk taking due to the nation's prolonged economic downturn punctuated by a series of high-profile corporate bankruptcies.


Media Blitz Shifting Into High Gear


For the past few months, the council has been running a series of full-page advertisements to plead gold's case to Japanese investors.

"The first stage of our campaign was to build opinion and stir up interest in gold. Now we are entering the second stage where we want to channel this interest into actual purchases. We want to tell investors where they can buy gold and what gold investment products are available," explained Toshima.

To this end the council plans to run more advertisements and is working with the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's leading business daily, to set up a Web site dedicated to gold investing. There are also plans to establish a toll-free call center to offer investors advice on buying gold.

The council is also planing a series of nationwide seminars to promote gold that will feature a well-known politician and an economics professor from one of Japan's top universities.


Pension Funds Take A Shine To Gold


Toshima said that the events of Sept. 11 have overturned the conventional philosophies used by the Japanese in managing pension funds.

"There used to be the idea that you could diversify a pension fund by simply investing in Japanese, European and American stocks. If the U.S. stocks fell, then this would likely be covered by a rise in Japanese stocks. But stocks all around the world tumbled after September 11 and this resulted in Japanese pension funds taking big hits," said Toshima. "Japanese pension funds fell 9% on average just last year alone, and so fund mangers are really warming up to the idea of including gold as an alternative investment."

Toshima said the council has been arranging one-to-one meetings with pension fund managers to offer advice on the selection of gold products and purchasing methods. The council has even tapped global consultancy firm Watson Wyatt, a leading pension consultant, to assist in these efforts.

Toshima feels that corporate bankruptcies, the falling stock market and rapidly depreciating yen will keep the Japanese very anxious about their nation's economic health well into next year - which would likely keep gold in the investment spotlight.

"As a Japanese citizen, the economic realities are a little depressing," said Toshima. "But as a promoter of gold, these sure are some exciting times in Japan."


Gold Production -- Sharefin, 23:31:24 02/03/02 Sun

Amur Gold Producers Appeal To Government For Help

Delegates at a conference of gold industry bosses in Russia's Far Eastern Amur region have appealed to the government for help in connection with a possible sharp reduction in gold production.
The Amur region produced a record 13 tonnes of gold in the 2001 season, Nikolai Starkov, head of the region's natural resources committee, told Interfax. This earned 495 million rubles for budgets at all levels of government. The region's gold producers received just over 18 million rubles in loans.

But placer gold reserves in the region are becoming depleted, and the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources has been slow to issue licenses to explore new deposits.

"If geological exploration is not permitted very soon, gold production will fall significantly in as little as two years," Starkov said.


Argentina -- Sharefin, 23:07:52 02/03/02 Sun

Argentina Loan Conversion Plan May Wreck Banks, Analysts Say

Argentina's decision to convert all dollar deposits and loans into pesos at below-market exchange rates will saddle banks with billions of dollars of losses and may lead to their collapse, analysts said.

President Eduardo Duhalde yesterday ordered lenders to turn dollar loans into pesos at a rate of one-to-one and dollar deposits at 1.4, below the 1.95 per dollar rate at private exchange houses on Friday. The government will also eliminate a dual exchange rate system that fixed the peso at 1.4 per dollar for trade while allowing it to float freely elsewhere.

"They are passing through the complete burden of the devaluation to the banking sector," said Siobhan Manning, a sovereign debt strategist with Caboto USA, which has managed the sale of Argentine bonds. "They don't recognize the fact that banking system is on the verge of collapse."


Why this forum is currently moderated -- Sharefin, 23:03:51 02/03/02 Sun

There are some people who believe it is their right to rant & rave and that all others should listen & believe them.
To those people I say get a life and go and find another forum.

After seeing the abuse I received after stopping some posters venting their diatribe here it's no wonder I have gone to the bother of removing them.

To those who think it patriotic & their right to post freely whatever they will - go ahead & do it elsewhere.
This moderation has little to do with restricting voices but rather in removing the rubbish.

The purpose of this forum is to bring news & information about gold & the sharemarkets to the internet in such a way that one doesn't have to wade through a mile of inane posts and blather about who thinks what & why it must be so.
It's got nothing to do with frustrated egos who seek to disrupt and pontificate.

To all who don't like the current format you are more than welcome to move on & to do what you do best elsewhere.

If you wish to contribute then please do so in a friendly & constructive manner.
This forum is not for public abuse.

This is a private forum for the benefit of interested goldbugs.
In no shape or form will it be allowed to take on the abuses which exist elsewhere.

To those who are so pathetic to send me abusive emails (with false email addresses) because I won't let you abuse this forum - grow up and move along.

Enuff said and back to gold.


Gold rising -- Sharefin, 22:37:55 02/03/02 Sun




When Money Dies -- Sharefin, 17:42:35 02/03/02 Sun

When Money Dies - part 3


Nikkei - Dow -- Sharefin, 16:53:24 02/03/02 Sun




Japan -- Sharefin, 16:32:20 02/03/02 Sun

How low will the Nikkei go?
And how much gold will the Japanese buy on the way there?

From WaveResearch




Tick-by-tick charts -- Sharefin, 16:22:15 02/03/02 Sun

Gold - 60 minutes


Silver - 60 minutes



The Cheating of America -- Sharefin, 16:07:23 02/03/02 Sun

The Cheating of America

Think Enron and Arthur Andersen Are Exceptions? Think Again.
"Taxes are what we pay for civilized society," said former Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. Most Americans probably agree. No one loves the IRS, but we do our duty as citizens and pay our taxes.
But not everyone.
As the Enron-Arthur Andersen scandal shows, avoiding taxes is a big and lucrative business. Enron paid no income taxes in four of the past five years -- it was able to transfer its assets among 881 subsidiaries that were set up abroad in tax-sheltered countries. And Enron is just one example. In 1995, thousands of the biggest corporations -- those with assets over $250 million -- reported no net income and paid no income taxes.
For a deeper look at the shady world of tax evasion, read The Cheating of America, by Charles Lewis, Bill Allison and the Center for Public Integrity (Harperperennial Library).
The book details how major accounting companies, law firms, and Wall Street brokerages - often with a wink and nod from Washington -- help affluent individuals and corporations avoid paying their fair share of taxes. Among the book's findings:


In 1996, over 16,000 of the richest Americans -- those making $200,000 or more - enjoyed an effective tax rate under 10 percent, lower than a middle-class family. Over 1,000 of these Americans, including 101 millionaires, paid no income taxes.
The rest of us must pay more to cover for the tax dodgers: $195 billion annually, or $1,600 per taxpayer.
In the face of a tax-shirking epidemic, the IRS is decreasing enforcement and prosecution.
"Federal officials at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue would be shocked, SHOCKED, at any suggestion that they do not fully enforce the tax laws," says Charles Lewis. "But actions speak louder than words, and bluntly stated, those laws are not being fully enforced."
Think Enron and Arthur Andersen are exceptions? Think again. They got caught, but the cheating of America is business as usual.




The Struggle For The Legal Tender -- Sharefin, 16:03:31 02/03/02 Sun

The Struggle For The Legal Tender


Gold Could Be Whispering Something -- Sharefin, 16:00:18 02/03/02 Sun

Gold Could Be Whispering Something

As I titled Tuesday’s summary (“Something Is Different”), there are some peculiar things happening in the market right now, Tuesday’s sudden and brutal selloff ahead of the Fed meeting being the first. It was as if someone was saying, “I know something.” Copper is beginning to act bullishly as well, as it moved up to an 8 month high today after successfully retesting its 1999 low back in November. Short rates have begun moving higher in the last few weeks even as equities have declined (let’s all remember that the Fed FOLLOWS the market and doesn’t lead it.) The gold shares are going bananas and are far outpacing the gains that we are seeing in the metal. I’m not sure what it all means, but the market clearly smells something coming. And I don’t think it’s a massive economic recovery. It could be related to the war effort and Iraq, but I would think that oil and oil shares would be moving more in that case. It could also simply be misplaced optimism that the economy turning around, but it doesn’t appear that way. The moves in these gold shares are not a short-term phenomena. We’ll have to wait and see if we get more clues next week, but it could all be pointing to trouble coming for the dollar.

There’s a G7 meeting coming up on the 8th and 9th in Canada where all the central bankers will be present, and meetings like this have been known to have surprise announcements (look no further than the Washington Agreement of 1999.) Currencies are so managed these days that big G7 moves never seem to happen through pure market forces. Judging by the way the market acts, we could be in for a devaluation of the dollar (something that American manufacturers have been complaining to the White House about quite vocally of late.) We’ll have to wait until we get more data in the form of how the dollar, gold, bonds, and equities all trade next week going into the meeting, but something appears to be afoot. Should the dollar be devalued, this would obviously be bullish for gold, bearish for bonds, and (due to the run that equities have already had) bearish for stocks as well. With valuations as high as they are, a push up in long-term interest rates combined with foreign liquidation of US stocks would cause stock prices to move lower on such an event despite the obvious inflationary bounce in the economy that you might get from exporting with a weaker currency. It’s hard to say how everything would net out on a move like that, but I don’t think it would have the bullish effects that policy makers might intend. Every action has consequences, and a lower dollar means higher interest rates and higher commodity prices in the US, which a “priced for perfection” stock market that’s 130% of GDP simply cannot stomach even if earnings bounce a bit from the pickup in export activity. That all goes back to the valuation issue that I keep harping on in these tech stocks that are all discounting a rebound in growth that simply isn’t going to happen. Uncle Al has been slashing interest rates and exploding the money supply (MZM is up 20 percent year over year.) He’s trying his best to inflate his way out of the debacle we find ourselves in, but the currency is not cooperating as the dollar continues to strengthen. Maybe the powers that be have finally decided to give it a helping hand?

But let’s not get carried away. We’ll have to revisit this next week and see how things are setting up before we can come to any firm conclusions. A drop in the dollar will be the absolute worst thing imaginable for US financial markets. There’s really no good option to take once you are in a predicament such as we currently find ourselves, but a lower dollar is one of the steps back to rebalancing the US economy as well as the globe after the biggest bubble in history. So, it’s going to occur at some point, but like a drug addict recovering from years of drug use, the road back is not easy and often quite painful.

Let’s see what happens next week…


Bankruptcy candidates for 2002 -- Sharefin, 15:53:10 02/03/02 Sun

Bankruptcy candidates for 2002

After years of denial and complacency, Americans are finally starting to realize that the U.S. financial system is one megalithic house of cards on the brink of collapse. Enron has been the headline rage of late and derivatives were its undoing. Now that consumers are starting to find out just how big the derivative problem is, it's only a matter of time before widespread panic sets in and things really start getting out of hand.

We are compelled to offer our thoughts and forecasts on what the coming year might unfold in the way of bankruptcies, panics and (debt) collapses. At no other time in recent history have so many candidates for collapse crowded the field.


Gold gain points to currency risk -- Sharefin, 15:49:24 02/03/02 Sun

Gold gain points to currency risk

As the world's economic leaders meet in New York, professionals wonder whether gold's steady price rise this week is the first crack in the global currencies dam.

UBS Warburg's precious metals team Friday said, "Gold remains strangely supported despite the strength in the U.S. dollar. Although there has been news of good buying out of bank-distressed Japan, the reported quantities are not enough to explain the precious metal's recent resilience. We suspect that one or more large buying programs have been executed since the start of the year."

Landon's report is making the rounds in Asia. His view is one that may come to haunt investors in coming weeks. "The rising price of gold in all the major currencies indicates that investors have been losing confidence in the monetary policies of Japan, Europe and the U.S., in that order of concern," he says.

The UBS Warburg folks, meanwhile, are pragmatic. "The lack of selling ... confirms that the risks in gold remain heavily weighted towards a move higher," they said Friday.

"We're a long way from a runaway bull market, but it could not be any clearer that there is a significant amount of money now willing to bet that the gold price is going to continue its advance," Bishop said Friday.


Pedal to the Metal -- Sharefin, 15:46:08 02/03/02 Sun

Pedal to the Metal


Gold @ $350 -- Sharefin, 04:00:33 02/03/02 Sun

Newmont Mining CEO - $350/Oz Gold Likely In 2-3 Years

Newmont's three-way merger has already been approved by Franco-Nevada shareholders.

Murdy said in an interview that he expects Normandy's shareholders to tender at least 90% of the Australian company.

"Then we'll be able to merge the company," Murdy said.

The chief executive said Newmont will begin to "rationalize" the assets of the combined company once the merger is completed. He said that Newmont will raise between $250 million and $300 million in the first year through asset sales, including some of Normandy's smaller operations outside Australia.

Murdy said that the merger would give Newmont a much more conservative balance sheet. "We're looking to reduce our debt-to-capitalization ratio from a 40% to 24%," he said, adding that the company expects that ratio to fall below 20% through the sale of smaller assets within a year. "Our long-term goal is to have a debt-to-capitalization ratio of about 10%."

He said that the combined company will maintain its current yearly production of 8 million ounces until gold prices improve.

"As long as gold prices stay at these levels, we're happy just maintaining production and improving the quality of the assets we have," Murdy said."But if we saw a sustainable level of $300 to $350 (an ounce), then we would start looking at new projects."

The benchmark gold future contracts on Comex closed at $286.80 Friday.

"We see in the next two or three years, a good case for the price of gold to go to $350," Murdy said.

Newmont will continue to provide shareholders with a "pure play" investment in gold, the executive said. Newmont, unlike other gold producers, doesn't use forward contracts as a hedge against changes in the price of gold. While that leaves it exposed to declines in gold prices, it also means the company benefits fully if gold becomes more expensive.

"As the company is configured right now, each $25 increase in the price of gold results in a pretax free-cash-flow increase of $162 million," Murdy said. "And once we close out the Normandy hedge book, will get almost $200 million per $25 increase."


Anglogold -- Sharefin, 03:58:47 02/03/02 Sun

Anglogold on the acquisition path


Toronto stock close higher as golds add glitter -- Sharefin, 03:57:44 02/03/02 Sun

Toronto stock close higher as golds add glitter

"Expectations of higher bullion prices will carry these gold stocks higher," said John Ing, president at Maison Placements Canada.
"There's no question that looking ahead at all the uncertainty in the stock market that gold is a good thing to have."


Harmony -- Sharefin, 03:55:56 02/03/02 Sun

Harmony Facing Higher Price Tag To Buy AngloGold Mines


Chile gold & copper project -- Sharefin, 03:54:03 02/03/02 Sun

Chile OKs study on $1.43 bln gold and copper project

The project, located at an altitude of 4,000 meters in the Andean mountains in northern Chile, would eventually produce 900,000 ounces gold annually as well as 128,000 tonnes copper and 1.8 million ounces silver.


Platinum -- Sharefin, 03:52:53 02/03/02 Sun

Fuel-cells: driving platinum into the future


Barrick Gold -- Sharefin, 03:51:24 02/03/02 Sun

Barrick Gold 2001 production of 6.1 million ounces of gold at $162 per ounce


Godsell spurns value-diluting deals -- Sharefin, 03:49:37 02/03/02 Sun

Godsell spurns value-diluting deals


Enron -- Sharefin, 03:43:44 02/03/02 Sun

Enron Metals' Joe Gold Moves To Barclays Capital


Gold pulls up anchor and stocks, funds set sail -- Sharefin, 03:42:05 02/03/02 Sun

Gold pulls up anchor and stocks, funds set sail


Commitments Of Traders -- Sharefin, 03:38:26 02/03/02 Sun

Commitments Of Traders: Bullish Gold, Silver Still Vulnerable

Gold fund managers were seen getting ready for this week's rally by paring down their net long positions, according to analysis of the Commitments of Traders report released Friday, which showed their exposure to be half what it was a week ago. The risk of long liquidation is therefore greatly reduced from last week.
The CFTC report showed that, as of Jan. 29, large speculators held 29,044 long positions and 16,610 short positions in gold, slashing their net long exposure to 12,434 contracts from the 25,929 longs in the previous report.
Citing the 36,638-contract extreme from late September, analyst Tim Evans at Pegasus Econometrics saw room for fresh buying of anywhere from 15,000 to 20,000 contracts before a longer-term top was in sight.
"Of course, there is never a guarantee that fund managers will fully commit themselves and even the current report shows some potential for long liquidation instead," he said.
The funds that have clung to their longs since the last runup will probably be looking to take profits just a few dollars above where April gold on Comex closed Friday, at $286.80 an ounce, according to Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill.
Broker John Tyree at Rosenthal Collins Group in New York expressed more confidence in funds' commitments to the long side, saying they were in the market for a much bigger run than the $4 spike seen Friday, holding out for at least another $6 to $8 to the upside.
But Evans at Pegasus expected the market to match the double bottom establish at $278.40 in the last week with a double top, probably ahead of the $289.50 downtrend resistance or the $290.50 peak from Jan. 16. Penetration above there would target the $297.50 high from September.
On the downside, failed resistance at $284.30 will serve as initial support, with scale down buying likely to emerge at $282 and $280 before a retest of $278.40 can occur.
"We'd look for a few sessions of consolidation to develop before looking to sell short on breaks," Evans advised.
In silver, large noncommercials also whittled down their long exposure, with 32,428 longs and 3,833 shorts bringing the total long exposure to 28,595 contracts, down from 33,036 a week earlier.
"The break to a new low Thursday may have resulted in a further reduction, but we think the market is still somewhat top-heavy with length," Evans said.
Though he saw room for roughly 8,000 contracts' worth in fresh buying before the 36,208-contract peak was matched, he predicted funds would look to further reduce their longs into any price strength.
As for prices, a double top of $4.335 in March silver two Fridays running establishes that as fairly formidable resistance, with any break above there likely to draw people's attention and warrant covering shorts. Further resistance between $4.40 and $4.56 will hinder a recovery attempt, "limiting it to an upward correction within what may still be a bear market," Evans warned.
In the other direction, a breach of support of the $4.21 low from Thursday will invite a retest of the $4.05 low from November or the declining channel support at $3.97, he said.


Moderators comment -- Sharefin, 03:06:53 02/03/02 Sun

Due to the nature of some recent off-beat posts I've put this forum back on to the moderated format for some time.

Please feel free to post gold or sharemarket related posts.


Recovery or Illusion? -- Sharefin, 19:44:02 02/02/02 Sat

Recovery or Illusion?


The Globalizer Who Came In From the Cold -- Sharefin, 19:42:07 02/02/02 Sat

World Bank Insider Speaks Out

The World Bank’s former Chief Economist’s accusations are eye-popping - including how the IMF and US Treasury fixed the Russian elections


Enron -- Sharefin, 19:37:48 02/02/02 Sat

Britain's Prince Charles Linked to Enron Execs


Enron -- Sharefin, 19:33:28 02/02/02 Sat

Enron was, in layman's terms, a nest of dirtballs


Argentina -- Sharefin, 19:23:07 02/02/02 Sat

Argentina 'on brink of anarchy'


Chapman -- Sharefin, 19:22:07 02/02/02 Sat

Gold & Silver Potpourri

Snipped from Robert's IF:
Word is that Barrick was long Enron bonds and lost several million dollars, and the IRS is looking at their offshore hedge book. Being good corporate citizens they avoid taxes like the plague. Barrick is in bed with JP Morgan Chase and JP Morgan Chase was a bed partner of Enron. It stands to reason Enron was financing its pyramid via JP Morgan Chase and gold leasing. If this is true with Enron bankrupt who is going to cover the Enron gold short? The natural legal responsibility lies with JP Morgan Chase, but JP Morgan Chase is the vassal of government. Will Morgan pay or will you and I via our corrupted government? This could be the biggest story of our new century and the collapse of Morgan. We may be on the cusp of a major setback for the elitists due to their unbounded greed.

(Remember the initial rumours of Enron being short 50 million ounces of silver - no rumours since)

"Elektra sales of silver coins HAVE EXHAUSTED THE STOCK OF BANK OF MEXICO! Elektra is expecting new deliveries of newly minted "Libertad" one-ounce coins, this week. Central Bank of Mexico is quite surprised. Some stores, in the meantime, are out of stock."


Eldorado and Bema to the Moon! -- olehickok, 09:53:06 02/02/02 Sat

Great forum!! Just found it after wasting to much time on Kitco's.
i'm just a humble goldbug but i predict XAU to 90-100 by May. POG back to $400-$500 by December 2002.(thus XAU could be 150+ by then)
Eldorado and BGO heating up, and we'll be talking about folds in these and not just %'s. e.g., 5 fold, 10 fold, 20 fold, not just 20% up, 80% up, 138% up. Get in now and beat the crowd. Katie Kork and Fan Blather will be buying from us after we've 10 folded. Politicians and lawyers will be buying from us after we've 20-30 folded.
Have a great day, thanks to moderator of this for having us.


auspec -- Sharefin, 23:23:09 02/01/02 Fri

Going on the past history there should be approx 3 years between lows & highs, so with one year almost gone we don't have long to wait.


More on Citigroup -- Sharefin, 23:15:30 02/01/02 Fri

I think that this article is of major importance.
Citicorp dupes customers

“The brokers were calling our clients telling them that this was a wonderful opportunity to buy these instruments,” says Joe Cotchett, a lawyer representing Silvercreek. “They were giving our client a sell job.”
Citigroup, Goldman and Banc of America declined to comment.
The suit is one of the first to put the blame for Enron squarely on Wall Street’s role in facilitating Enron’s deception. “Enron’s investment bankers sold the securities which propped up the pyramid,” the suit alleges. “In the process, these firms earned $214 million in underwriting fees alone, and much more for lending, derivatives trading and merger advice.”


When the major market makers take to knowingly rip their clients faces off and expect to get paid for it, is the time that market players decide it's time to exit these markets.

All global markets are built on confidence & trust and when it's revealed that the biggest players are not playing by the books how does it relate to their customers who now must question past deals and the value thereof.

Who will be next wanting to purchase from them - especially in this climate.

This has the potential to snowball into something monstrous.
All the hot air holding the lofty valuations sky high has just heard a pin prick.

Now we should see a flight to gold, because we've just seen one of the majors caught selling hot air (paper) to a trusting client.

Watch the exits as the players have a look at what they're holding - paper - and contemplate about it's true value.

These markets are built on confidence and confidence is what holds them together.
Lose that confidence and basically all you're left holding is paper.
And in today's markets all this paper is greatly over-valued.

The bubble has been pricked and confidence is rapidly waning.
All across America & the rest of the globe, managers & market makers must be reviewing the paper they have and the value thereof.

Now who will be the first to say let me out of this game & give me my collateral back?
Who now is cashing in their paper and getting into gold early?

Once the rush starts it will be too late.
Already the damage has been done.
We just have to hear more of it.

The internals of these global markets built on trust have turned rotten.
Greed has ruined them to the core.
Profits & greed were sought as ethics were thrown to the winds.

Confidence now shaken remains to be shattered and then the panic begins as the players rush to cash in and get out before what they are holding is worthless.

Gold is in play & demand is rapidly building....^o-o^.....


Sharefin.....OK wit Me -- auspec, 23:09:14 02/01/02 Fri

The 1976 part of that chart really appeals to my greedy inner self. Politicos will be skrewd sooner, sooner, sooner, or later!
Shhhhhhhhhh? Let's not let any other potential gold buyers in on this one.


And the walls come tumbling down -- Sharefin, 22:55:08 02/01/02 Fri

Beijing banker sacked after $1bn disappears


auspec -- Sharefin, 22:53:02 02/01/02 Fri

Shhsssssshhhh!!!!!

I'll let you in on a little secret.




New webpage on Gold Indices - very bullish -- Sharefin, 22:40:24 02/01/02 Fri

Global Gold Stock Indices


Charts -- auspec, 22:34:40 02/01/02 Fri

Fundamentals?
Technicals?
Politicals?
I really do love and appreciate the charts, but we must recognize that, at this point in time, POLITICS is the major determining factor with gold. Am I wrong? When the charts strongly dictate that gold will soar is exactly when the manipulators do their manipulations, as recent history clearly spells out. Technicals TRUMPED by fraud. Fraud loses in the long run every time, but we must wait for the long run {patiently]! Manipulators understand technicals every bit as well as we do, and they fight the batle accordingly. NOW is, again, their time to pull 3 rabbits, 6 snakes, and 8 alligators out of their hinderparts. Give credit where credit is due. These sphincters are worthy of Guinness WBR {not stout}. "A" for effort, but "F" for choosing a loosing battle, govt. folly at its worst/best.
Finnie.......Thanks for this new Forum!


Topgun -- Sharefin, 19:29:22 02/01/02 Fri

You & me both, plus probably a lot of others.

My intent is to not let happen to this place what has happened there and that is why I posted what I did.

You are more than welcome to post here but please make it informative rather than a disgruntled rave.
Leave all your grievances elsewhere.

If you intend to convert sheep then you are on the wrong forum.
If you intend to perceive this forum's viewers as sheep then you are definitely on the wrong forum.

I have the ability & privilege to veto & delete any post that I believe doesn't fit in with the mettle of this place.
I can also ban ISPs if the need arises.

Ennuf said & back to gold.


NICK....................... -- topgun, 19:10:00 02/01/02 Fri

I'm here because KITCO has no substance. Maybe
I'm upset because of all the misinformation
on the boards. I'm tired of being burned and
hussled. Please show some compassion. I have
lost alot of friends because of my wealth.
I have lots to offer this board if the sheep
will listen. Suit yourself.


The Bottom Line -- Sharefin, 18:51:07 02/01/02 Fri

Waiting for the next shoe to drop

The disturbing question on everyone's mind these days has a frighteningly simple answer. Will there be another Enron? Yes, of course, there will be.

The more tantalizing questions: Who will be next to crack, and when will we find out? The identity of the next Enron is tough to know. Short sellers will speculate, of course. But disasters like Enron tend to explode like bombshells, meaning that everyone but insiders will be surprised when the cataclysm occurs.

The "when" is easier to discern. In coming weeks, as companies begin to file their 10-K annual reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the next wave of revelations will hit the market. It stands to be ugly. The reason lies in what auditors will force their clients to disclose in return for signing off on their annual reports.

"The interplay of the relationship between issuers (of stock) and auditors for every public company this year will occur under the cloud of Enron," says Boris Feldman, a litigator with the Silicon Valley law firm of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Roasati. "Every auditor in America is having a near-death experience," he says.


Topgun - moderators comment -- Sharefin, 18:44:30 02/01/02 Fri

Please could you post your views as they are, on the Kitco forum & not here.

I would prefer that this forum is for gold related news rather than rants or raves.

There are plenty of forums where you can vent to your hearts content.

If you've some informative news on gold then please feel free to post them here.

If you want to bitch & complain then please take your views elsewhere.

If you don't like what I say then please don't complain here but take it elsewhere.

This is a private forum and I am seeking to not let it go the way of the other forums.

All are welcome to post here but in a civilised way.
Regards Nick


POSTERS ON KITCO COULDN'T FIGHT THEIR WAY OUT OF A PAPER BAG -- topgun, 18:21:04 02/01/02 Fri

The nut case SKI poster has everyone brainwashed like
he has a sacred system. You sheep don't get it. It
doesn't work and you still want to believe in chasing
rainbows in the sky. Then there's FACT and SURFER who
continually post junk and are always wrong. We have
alot of stupid people in this world and 98% are on
KITCO. I don't have to go to chat sites to see all
you sheep. I see plenty of you in the stores and
many who can't even drive a automobile. I have alot
of assets and I'm sick of sicko's trying to grab free
hand outs so they can piss way money with their non
existant set of values. I love to help people in real
need but I'm sick of sicko's. If your out there I'm
letting you know now and I think I speak for those
that invested and saved their money as well. I repeat
none of you pricks will get my hard earned money when
the house of cards collapses. I'm referring to those
people with no values and who want everything through
selfishness. The gates of hell will swing wide open
for you selfish greedy people who only have their own
agendas on their mind. This world will also be destroyed
by the likes of man of this caliber. Judgement day is
coming you pricks.


gold at $1000 by June/2002 -- topgun, 17:51:01 02/01/02 Fri

Why ???? The herd/public has been out of gold
for many years and the stampede is about to begin.
The metals have been completely sold off by the public
for many years now placing the proceeds into paper assets.
What do you think is going to happen ? How many sheep
are on this board ??? How many of you like the public
are brain dead ? How many of you need to consult with
other people before investing ??? For those that can't
see their own nose in front of their face you need not
listen to sheep. As I drive my car on the roads and
shop in the stores I have never seen so many confused
herds of people that can't function. America's time is
up as the people are starting to look like real zombies.
The cost of living is going to wipe out pay checks as it
soars to Uranus. The only problem is 90% of the public
is counting on a pay check to pay ther bills. Lets see
now can you sheep spell "DEVALUATION". Coming soon to
a theater near you. Baa Baaaaa

Sheeeep...............selling to early too will be your
own demise. Hate to burst all your bubbles on taking
profits. All of you will be horsewhipped out of the
market. I'll be back in a few months to see how all
you gready people did trying to time the market. So
far most of you can't make a dime. Hang it up sheep
trading is for suckers. Got to stay in to win and be
willing to go down with the ship. Or are you still
out to lunch. You will be when gold slices through
a $1000 and your not in. I can't believe the gold
boards and how many people think they can time the
market. How the sheep never learn !!!!!


Enron -- Sharefin, 15:52:51 02/01/02 Fri

Citigroup’s Enron sales draw lawsuit

Would you trust your gold to these merchants?


TSE Canadian Gold Index -- Sharefin, 15:07:12 02/01/02 Fri




ASX Gold Index -- Sharefin, 15:03:54 02/01/02 Fri




Gold climbs $5 to touch two-week high -- Sharefin, 14:47:49 02/01/02 Fri

Gold climbs $5 to touch two-week high

Gold gain points to currency risk

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - As the world's economic leaders meet in New York, professionals wonder whether gold's steady price rise this week is the first crack in the global currencies dam.

UBS Warburg's precious metals team Friday said, "Gold remains strangely supported despite the strength in the U.S. dollar. Although there has been news of good buying out of bank-distressed Japan, the reported quantities are not enough to explain the precious metal's recent resilience. We suspect that one or more large buying programs have been executed since the start of the year."


Gold's climb to almost $288 an ounce Friday may not seem so hot to stock-market investors. Yet the gain from $278.50 just five days ago has brought gold-mining shares in North America to their highest point in eight months, as measured by both the HSBC North American Gold Index and the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index. Both indexes on Friday continued to rise. See HSBC gold share chart.

The metal's gain also is boosting mining shares in Australia, Canada and South Africa, where ailing currencies against the dollar are magnifying companies' operating profit margins. The gains have been strongest in Australia, where takeover fever is sweeping small and large mining companies. See Australia gold mine index. In Toronto, the stock market's gold mining companies as a group have risen more than 50 percent in the past 12 months. See Toronto Stock Exchange gold share chart.

As for bullion itself, the gains in the metal during a time of dollar strength, usually a downer for gold, prompt the question of who is buying -- and why.

Ken Landon, a Deutsche Banc analyst in Tokyo, explains a rising gold price almost always indicates depreciating currencies, regardless of exchange rates. In the past 12 months, the yen, he says in a report, has fallen 21 percent against gold. The euro has lost 15 percent of its value against gold. The dollar is off by 6 percent.

Landon's report is making the rounds in Asia. His view is one that may come to haunt investors in coming weeks. "The rising price of gold in all the major currencies indicates that investors have been losing confidence in the monetary policies of Japan, Europe and the U.S., in that order of concern," he says.

A foreign exchange analyst, Landon says the Federal Reserve, whose policies are increasingly inconsequential to consumers and investors, and American lawmakers are to blame, on this side of the globe, anyway.

"It was the Fed's rate hikes that caused an inverted yield curve, which was an infallible signal of the subsequent recession," Landon says about the central bankers' series of interest rate hikes that totaled 175 basis-points. The rising rates came to an end in mid-2000 as Federal Reserve governors tried to put the brakes on a surging stock market. The interest-rate hikes were followed by 13 interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve.

The Deutsche Banc analyst also points to the Justice Department's campaign against Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile) and the U.S. Senate's majority of "anti-free market Democrats" as red flags for investors, Finally, "Enron became a political issue in Washington, which increases the chance that the government will mount a new regulatory assault against business." Landon says gold is the only refuge for investors who seek to avoid currencies that are attached to economic and witch-hunt policies.

Gold rush in Japan

Reports that Japanese consumers are rushing to buy gold, first reported here more than a week ago, might explain part of gold's recent gains. Japanese investors bought about 10 tons of gold bars and coins in January, or double the monthly average from last year, according to the World Gold Council. The Japanese, who have a history of hoarding metals such as platinum and gold, are wary of an end later this year to full government guarantees on Japanese bank deposits. See more on this gold story.

Some precious metals analysts say that's no reason for gold's resilience. Such buying by consumers, they say, is a mere blip in the daily flows of gold, which is also lent out by central banks and bullion banks eager to earn a tiny interest rate on their holdings.

Andy Smith, a Mitsui Global Precious Metals analyst in London, tells me Friday it is almost always the mining companies who are responsible for large purchases and sales of gold. Many gold mining companies hedge their books by selling some of their production forward to lock in slightly higher prices, thus creating a need to buy gold in the futures markets.

"The finger in the air should normally point to miners," says Smith, whose price-range forecast for gold this year is $265 to $355 an ounce. See more on Smith. Smith said in the fourth quarter of last year alone, net buying by just two large gold miners, South Africa's Anglogold Ltd. (AU: news, chart, profile) and Australia's Normandy Mining (AU:NDY: news, chart, profile), amounted to more than 90 tons.

Smith is curious, like everyone else, about gold's stiff upper lip this past week. The UBS Warburg folks, meanwhile, are pragmatic. "The lack of selling ... confirms that the risks in gold remain heavily weighted towards a move higher," they said Friday.

As for the companies that pull metal from the ground, things are very good these days.

Anglogold, the world's largest miner until Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), Normandy and Canada's Franco-Nevada agreed to combine their companies in January, just reported a 16 percent quarterly increase in net income to $88 million. In rand, which is near an all-time low against the dollar, Anglogold's profits rose 45 percent for the December quarter.

On Monday, South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. (GOLD: news, chart, profile) will unveil quarterly profits. Gold mining companies across the entire continent of Africa are enjoying swollen profits, thanks in large part to their weak local currencies. Gold is largely denominated in dollars, and when exchanged for rand and other ailing currencies, mining companies' income statements are looking golden. The Financial Times Africa Gold Mines Index has gained more than 60 percent the past 12 months. See chart.

Robert Bishop, the longtime editor of Gold Mining Stock Report, says he just returned this week from two Canada mining and exploration conferences. Based in California, Bishop points to a spate of financings for lesser-known gold miners, including a $20 million (Canadian) cash infusion for Eldorado Gold Corp. (CA:ELD: news, chart, profile) and a $27 million (Canadian) one for Kinross Gold Corp. (CA:K: news, chart, profile).

"We're a long way from a runaway bull market, but it could not be any clearer that there is a significant amount of money now willing to bet that the gold price is going to continue its advance," Bishop said Friday.

As for the mood of the gold industry, Bishop says most mining executives, whether pushing paper in skyscrapers or scraping rock in dusty pits, still remember the spectacular failure of Canada's Bre-X in 1997. Bre-X's fraud brought steep losses, and heartbreak, to many investors and cast a cloud over the mining business. "That was the year Bre-X's John Felderhof won Prospector of the Year, and his associate, Michael de Guzman, spent most of the week (at a March 1997 mining conference) in Toronto strip joints," Bishop recalls.

"Felderhof had to return his award a few months later, and de Guzman, within 10 days of his visit to Toronto, took flight from a helicopter over the Indonesian jungle," Bishop says, in a report to his clients. In the wake of de Guzman's apparent suicide and Bre-X's collapse, "things haven't been quite the same since," Bishop says.


How many Enrons? -- Sharefin, 14:24:46 02/01/02 Fri

Two, Three, Many?


Snipped from John Maudlin's e-letter:
I read today where Enron owes $30 billion to its unsecured creditors and another $10 billion to its secured creditors. Good luck, guys. You can kiss the unsecured debt goodbye, and probably most of the secured.

John Meyers writes that the adjusted monetary base was about $500 billion in 1998. Today it is pushing $640. That is a huge growth of $140 billion. He argues that is inflationary and will eventually make gold rise. I am not convinced.

Enron wiped out $40 billion in one fell swoop. How much has been lost to Global Crossing, that star crossed company which only a few years ago George Gilder was hailing as among the best and brightest?

These two examples are a tip of the iceberg. Estimates are $25 billion to the US for Argentina and another $45 billion to Europe. Moody's has raised its estimates of global debt default in high yield bonds to 12%, an almost 20% rise. Credit card and other consumer debt defaults are near all-time highs. Mortgage defaults are similarly at high levels.

In the old days, you paid off the farm and celebrated by burning the mortgage. Today, banks and lenders are participating in another type of debt burning, as they burn the paper of those who are left with bankruptcy as their only choice.

This global paper burning is deflationary, pure and simple. Greenspan prints money and Ken Lay, Gary Winnick and their ilk burn it, except for what they manage to put in their pockets.

While I do think inflation could come back some day, my view (stated last week) that gold could finally get up off the mat (in 2003) is related to my concern about the dollar coming under pressure due to the likelihood that the trade deficit will be the highest in history, and will probably be responsible for bringing the dollar down (see last week's issue for a full analysis).


GUILTY FOR 9-11: BUSH, RUMSFELD, MYERS -- Sharefin, 14:17:42 02/01/02 Fri

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4


China -- Sharefin, 14:14:00 02/01/02 Fri

Bank Of China's Mounting Problems


Bubblemania -- Sharefin, 14:01:05 02/01/02 Fri

House of Cards - The Second to Last Bubble


Bond Defaults -- Sharefin, 13:57:58 02/01/02 Fri

Record Corp. Bond Defaults in Jan - S& P

In a fresh sign that the credit woes of companies worldwide have not abated, Standard & Poor's said on Thursday that 41 issuers defaulted on $31.3 billion of rated bonds in January. Both totals set records for a single month.


Opps I forgot the "<a"; sorry.. -- thmann, 13:39:51 02/01/02 Fri

Corrected Link

There that should do it.

:-)


Opps I forgot the "<a"; sorry.. -- thmann, 13:37:46 02/01/02 Fri



There that should do it.

:-)


SILVER SUPERNOVA! (without "WWW") -- thmann, 13:20:08 02/01/02 Fri

For those (like me) that are getting a "404 file not found" error.

href="http://silver-investor.com/nova.htm"

Well worth a read.


Open letter to George W. Bush from Michael Moore -- Shadowfax, 11:11:21 02/01/02 Fri

Well worth a read..

Open letter to George W. Bush from Michael Moore


Oil -- Sharefin, 22:38:08 01/31/02 Thu

Kuwaiti field explodes into inferno


Silver bulls -- Sharefin, 22:25:42 01/31/02 Thu

Silver Could Replace Toxic Chemicals in Wood, Preservatives and Marine Paints

Over 100 million ounces annually of silver could be used in biocides for the wood preservation industry and for marine antifouling coatings if further testing shows them to be technically and financially superior to current chemical-based biocides that are falling out of favor - some are being banned - because of their toxicity.


auspec -- Sharefin, 22:23:37 01/31/02 Thu

I'm amazed. That was pure coincidence.
I've not been able to log on here for the last couple of hours and had been sent the link earlier.
I never noticed your post untill afterwards.
Crazy huh......

Don't you like poetic license.(:-)))


Sharefin -- auspec, 21:50:53 01/31/02 Thu

Thanks for bailing me out on that silver link, back to the drawing board.


From Solari -- Sharefin, 21:49:46 01/31/02 Thu

Rumors --- and hard evidence-- swirl that the US Treasury, the NY Fed member banks and large corporations are cooking the books and trillions of dollars, gold and inventory are missing from the federal government. Something does not make sense. Sounds like financial hijackers have hijacked the financial system.


SILVER SUPERNOVA! -- Sharefin, 21:48:24 01/31/02 Thu

The Impending Silver Crisis

As the year 2001 came to a close the world has witnessed the last full year of low silver prices. Thanks to the general media blackout of what can only be reasonably called conspiracies in silver and gold markets, the public at large has absolutely no inkling of the approaching catastrophe. As usual, distractions from urgent matters are offered to the public in the form of professional sports and TV gossip shows, both of which have slight importance yet mesmerize attention. The silver story is one of the strangest in financial history. Crucial aspects have been detailed for several years by Butler. For silver investors, this is an opportunity which would not exist, except for the fact of long-term obstruction of free market forces. The obscene situation of a long-term short corner on the market, so-called regulators allowing it and press ignoring it---culminating in a price explosion, shortages and rationing, is among the most outrageous manipulations in business history.

When the crisis in silver and gold erupts and the foundations of banking giants shake, the public will demand to know why didnít someone tell them this was coming!


Cyclist/Silver Article -- auspec, 21:47:13 01/31/02 Thu

Yes, Cyclist, it is hard to believe that SWG is selling at current low FRN price, this one is the premier explorer, using OPM, and giving many multiple chances of success. Will be a $20 stock in the not too distant future, imho only. Surprised to see it going down while many Jrs/explorers are heading north.

SILVER ARTICLE! This is a good one by Charles Savoie:

Silver Supernova

OK, Sharefin, let's see if I'm now ready for prime time wit the above link.


Skolnick -- Sharefin, 17:49:04 01/31/02 Thu

THE ENRON BLACK MAGIC

===Federal Reserve Commissar Alan Redspan [that is what we call the Dictator] siphoned off hundreds of millions of secret Enron partnership funds, multiplied through fractional reserves and derivatives hocus-pucus, to temporarily support the Dow Jones 30 Industrials. Thus for the moment saving Bush from having to deal with a financial meltdown which he most likely could not effectively deal with. Old-timers say Bush was in danger of being "Hoover-ized", referring to President Herbert Hoover, 1930-31, falsely stating "prosperity is just around the corner". The September 11 events effectively prevented for the moment Bush having to deal with a gold stampede which would tend to discredit the Federal Reserve's hot-air paper money masquerading as the "U.S. Dollar". [See part two of this Enron website series.]

THE ENRON BLACK MAGIC Part 1
THE ENRON BLACK MAGIC Part 2
THE ENRON BLACK MAGIC Part 3
THE ENRON BLACK MAGIC Part 4


SWC -- Cyclist, 15:12:52 01/31/02 Thu

SWC got sold off,yesterday and early this morning,heavily
by an institution.
The supply dried up around the previous low.
This was "the" buying opportunity.
I think with a change of management the stock could quadruple in no time.
Just a great day


Interesting site -- Prometheus, 13:21:33 01/31/02 Thu

Here's a site, fairly new, which may become another good source of info. It's called Depression2.tv and has the motto that second great depression will not be televised. Michael Nystrom, the editor, hopes to fill in some blanks.
http://www.depression2.tv/week/index.html


record corp. bond defaults -- kiwi, 11:40:33 01/31/02 Thu

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020131/business_economy_defaults_sp_dc_1.html


Elliott Wave Count---Thursday-1-31-02 -- Cobra, 08:22:35 01/31/02 Thu

The XAU ran into very stiff resistance yesterday at the 61.19 area right where I thought it would. This mornings pullback and low so far at 59.93 might be as low as it goes before we see XAU resume its Upward advance. Above 62.00 and I think we will see expanded trading ranges in all the precious metals. I think we have entered a 3rd wave to the Upside and any pullbacks will be shallow and brief. Most of the Gold stock charts have very favorable patterns, both on daily and weekly charts. The next move will be Up again. We commenced the 3rd of the 3rd on this last monday, we are in another minor two here I believe. This is NOT meant as investment advice and is a Personal observation Only. Due your own due diligence as to trading decisions.


Deflation -- Sharefin, 06:37:02 01/31/02 Thu

Japanese-Made Chip Equipment Orders Plunge 84% in December

Global sales slid 70 percent to $983 million in November from a year ago, the industry group said.


Breakdown -- Sharefin, 06:33:12 01/31/02 Thu

Greed, Complexity, Conflicts of Interest and The Moral Hazard

In a broader sense, the whole financial system has been infected with conflicts of interest. The argument of the complexity of today’s modern corporation can account for only a part of the problem. Greed and avarice account for many of the other problems we see. The desire to gain wealth has come into conflict with moral responsibility. This emphasis on gaining wealth has invariably produced conflicts of interest that rationalize certain human action. Today's directors and executives who run corporations are more concerned about the performance of the price of the stock than the performance of the enterprise.


IDT -- Sharefin, 06:21:36 01/31/02 Thu

It's in the mail.


Lenny's corner -- Sharefin, 06:20:26 01/31/02 Thu

METALS ANALYST COMMENT: Leonard Kaplan

Precious metals have remained quite firm during the last two days as volatility has captivated both the equities and currency markets, Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management said.
"The stock markets in the U.S. have been wild, first falling considerably on Tuesday as concerns about fraudulent financial reporting and accounting standards shook investor confidence, and then rallying out of a deep decline Wednesday as the U.S. Fed, again, accommodated the market by doing exactly what most expected - nothing at all," Kaplan said.
Gold has surpassed the $280 per ounce resistance level and appears very strong, Kaplan said, with an immediate target at the technical resistance level of $285 in mind.
Kaplan said that silver, after successfully testing support in the low $4.20's basis the March contract, is trying to get enough "steam" to break through the $4.32-$4.33 level.
"Even platinum and palladium are looking firm here and I would expect a bit of a rally," he added.


Barrick -- Sharefin, 06:17:39 01/31/02 Thu

Barrick 2001 gold production at 6.1 mln ounces


Real Money -- Sharefin, 06:11:36 01/31/02 Thu

Bangladesh move on gold imports hailed


Hedging -- Sharefin, 06:09:08 01/31/02 Thu

Collapse of rand forces AngloGold to revise hedging

Analysts said the positive effect of the collapse of the rand outweighed its negative impact on AngloGold's hedging profits. But the company said, "The dislocation of the rand during this quarter required active management of the portion of the hedge book priced in rands", and the company has restructured the book to substantially reduce the rand-denominated portion of its forward contracts. The overall hedge position has also been trimmed by some 3.5m ounces over the year.


Kaiser Aluminum says it will default on interest payments due -- Donald, 05:53:25 01/31/02 Thu

click here


Mexican Central Bank says an inflation bubble is growing -- Donald, 05:41:32 01/31/02 Thu

click here


Why I am happy with my Aussie Gold Shares ... -- Delta.au, 04:03:14 01/31/02 Thu


http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^HUI&d=c&k=c1&c=au,lihry,nem,gld.ax&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=l


Anglogold Results ... -- Delta.au, 03:50:34 01/31/02 Thu

AngloGold doubles quarterly profits

By Hilton Shone

AngloGold Ltd, the world's biggest gold producer, on Thursday reported a net profit of R895-million for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2001.

This is an increase of 104% on the R439-million in the September quarter. Headline earnings, which strip out exceptional items and their tax effects, came in at R971-million rand against R491-million.

Gold output for the three months to end-December was 36,012 kilograms (1,158,000 ounces) versus 37,254 kg (1,197,000 ounces). For the 12 months to December, AngloGold posted a net profit of R2.18-billion, up 95% on the R1.12-billion in the prior year.

Full-year headline profit was R2.48-billion an increase of 40% year-on-year. In the 12 months gold production amounted to 147,250 kg (4,734,000 ounces) down 13% on the previous year, as the group sold its Elandsrand and Deelkraal operations to Harmony Gold.

AngloGold will pay a full-year dividend of 18 rand per share, up 29% on the 14 rand per share paid in 2000.

http://www.suntimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimes/business/business1012460236.asp


Sharefin -- IDT, 21:59:30 01/30/02 Wed

Do you have a data set on gold that I could use for some analyses? I'm looking for something that would date back to the late 60s early 70s daily or monthly high low close on Comex or London Fix. Will settle though for monthly close on either Comex or London. Thanks in advance.


We Have Arrived!! -- auspec, 19:46:25 01/30/02 Wed

WE have now gone prime time wit the gold issue! I just finished watching West Wing and they portrayed what the yellow metal is all about in prime time, nekked, for ALL to see. Hollywood has spoken, quite clearly. You see, this scripted guy is trying to leverage his way into the Presidential circles with his 2 great concerns. Yes, he's a touch geeky looking, as well as quirky, but he does speak the King's English and is representing ALL of US. OK, so he's not just 'geeky' looking, he's a wild eyed wacko, but it's still 'GOLD' on national TV! The other issue is really not that important having something to do with Roswell New Mexico and possible alien creatures, let's just overlook that part. He clearly mentioned that 'Ft. Knox' is supposed to have 8,500 Metric tons of gold and has not been inspected by presidents since Roosevelt and Truman, so far so good. It does get a bit entangled as the two causes intertwine: "alien bodies at the bullion depository at Ft. Knox", but we must look beyond the obvious, no? I'm serious, these Hollydead script writers put the alien issue together with GOLD!!!! Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ho!!
Maybe those that like to tell people howe to think are getting somewhat desperate? You know that "nothing is official until it is officially denied"? Well, it has just been officially denied, HollyWooden is our officialdom, right? Most sheeple will be SHAMED into the 'correctness' of avoiding gold and for sure avoiding aliens, forever the 2 shall be linked.
Party time, folks, we have arrived! Ridicule is an exponential step ahead of simply being ignored, please continue fighting us. Uh, what's the last part of Ghandi's little saying? Something like "we win"? This was so blatantly obvious tonight it's hard to see hau the cameraman could function with all the laughter going on. But, howe did the sheeple see it?
Personally, I take it personally, and will personally, tomorrow, head for Roswell!!!

PS My GFather had a ranch near Roswell and he said little about cattle mutations, probably trying to spare me


Newmont -- Sharefin, 19:21:32 01/30/02 Wed

Newmont Plans to Sell as Much as 10% of Normandy's Holdings


Gold industry taking time to digest consolidation -- Sharefin, 19:19:06 01/30/02 Wed

Gold industry taking time to digest consolidation


Trimtabs -- Sharefin, 19:01:24 01/30/02 Wed

TrimTabs Liquidity News

Corporate liquidity remains bearish. The two key corporate liquidity indicators - newly announced cash takeovers and new offerings - both are as negative as possible. There have been less than $300 million as the cash portion of new takeovers over the past five weeks - a record low for any four or five weeks. Similarly the $15 billion of new offerings sold the first three weeks of January are also the most ever.

Regardless, equity fund flows so far this January are well below the pace of every other January. If the market sells off this week, then flows should turn negative for the month. If that happens, then this will be the first negative flow January since 1990.

BOTTOM LINE: WE REMAIN BEARISH. IF CORPORATE LIQUIDITY STAYS POOR AND FLOWS DON'T IMPROVE, THEN STOCKS IN TROUBLE.

We remain bearish. Our model portfolio, unchanged so far this year, is up 4.9% since 12/28/01. Unless Friday's rally lasts, then stock prices could drop below the December lows and proceed to retest the September bottom. At the same time as corporate investors remain decidedly bearish, the VIX has dropped to 21, one of the lowest reading in quite some time.

Last week there were a few big completed cash takeovers adding liquidity, the new offering calendar took some time to get going and several mutual funds did get inflows. That could have helped rally the market late last week. If new offerings keep coming at a $1+billion or higher daily rate going forward from here and there are no new cash takeovers; then it won't matter how big the equity fund inflows.


John Myers - WHY GOLD IS SET TO SOAR -- Sharefin, 17:01:35 01/30/02 Wed

WHY GOLD IS SET TO SOAR

A decade ago I was 14,000-feet deep in a South African gold mine, sweating bullets an