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Gold -- Sharefin, 17:56:21 03/25/02 Mon

Gold Mining Shares Hit 2-Yr Highs

Gold mining shares soared to two-year highs on Monday, as investors jilted blue chips and technology issues and diversified into a sector whose fortunes are tied to the improvement in gold bullion prices this year.

Investors have moved toward gold equities as a way to leverage rising gold prices and hedge portfolios against the perception of increased global risk -- from the U.S. war on terrorism to the worrisome condition of the Japanese economy and financial system.

At the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, the benchmark XAU North American Gold and Silver Mining Index rose 3.27 percent to 70.08 on Monday, reaching its highest since Feb. 7, 2000.

It outperformed the Dow Jones industrial average, which fell 146 points, and the Nasdaq index, which dropped 38 points.

"(Gold shares) are leading the gold price," said Caesar Bryan, manager of the Gabelli Gold fund. "If we don't get a rise in the gold price, obviously, just by definition these things will look a lot more expensive."

Spot gold bullion held firm around $298 an ounce on Monday after a sharp rise on Friday raised speculation that it could soon break back above the psychological $300 an ounce level and retest the high at $307.50 from Feb. 8.

That was gold's priciest since February 2000, when the metal still retained some of the shine from its stunning but short-lived rally from near 20-year lows at $252 to $340 an ounce in September and October 1999.

Because the market capitalization of the gold sector is small compared with the rest of the market, investors can get a lot of bang for their buck. Moves in gold company stocks tend to magnify gold's ups and downs.

The XAU index is up about 30 percent in 2002, compared with a 2.5 percent gain in the Dow and a 1.5 percent drop in the S&P 500 Index this year.

At the American Stock Exchange, the Gold Bugs Index of companies considered pure gold plays rose to its highest since October 1999 and is up 48 percent this year. The index includes producers that avoid hedging prices for unmined gold.

The gold industry is tempering the use of forward sales to lock in prices for reserves. While the practice allowed some to stay profitable as gold prices languished, many investors objected in the belief that gold mining companies should not stand in the way of bullion prices by selling too much.

"Most funds have actually been underweight in that industry for a long time," said Amaury Conti, an equity trader with U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio Texas.

"It is one of the best performing sectors year-to-date. We're going in to quarter-end here, people are realizing that they want to get a little bit of exposure."

"The other thing is Japan. During the fourth quarter we had huge physical demand out of Japan and of course their year-end is coming out."

Gold is seen as a store of value in uncertain times, and analysts have applauded rapid consolidation in the gold mining industry, resulting in the closing of inefficient mines in favor of high-grade, high-margin operations.

Tokyo gold futures are rallying and gold bars and coins are being snapped up by Japanese investors and the general public trying to protect wealth amid a severe banking crisis and the planned rollback of unlimited bank deposit insurance when the new financial year starts next week.

"Maybe people sense that all is not well with the world," said Harry Bingham, executive managing director at fund manager Van Eck Global, which runs a large gold fund.

"Gold shares in the past have found a way, sometimes but not always, of being ahead of gold," he said.


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:54:03 03/25/02 Mon

Bundesbank's gold marionette

Bundesbank president Ernst Welteke has once again sought out the media to blab about Germany selling its gold. Yet again, the sell call comes as gold lays within reach of $300 an ounce. But this time the capping ploy failed.

The conflicts of interest and potential for abuse are too hideous to contemplate. Does anyone believe that a central bank invested in the equities market is not going to use its inside track on interest rates and money supply to fine-tune its holdings appropriately? It is impossible to think that a member of the European Central Bank council considers this an appropriate message to send, especially to emerging markets that would latch onto any precedent allowing the market to be fiddled.

It's enough to make a conspiracist of anyone.

Whatever Welteke's real intent, he has spent his best ammunition and the market is threading its own path. Adding to the intrigue is evidence that the relationship between the dollar and gold continues to deteriorate. It started to break down in December and there is currently no reliable statistical connection between the two if you regress the data back to the start of the year.


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:51:50 03/25/02 Mon

What drives the prices of gold and gold stocks


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:50:05 03/25/02 Mon

Trading the Golden Bull


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:48:29 03/25/02 Mon

The Fed and Moral Hazard: have the nuts taken over the asylum?


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:47:10 03/25/02 Mon

The Progression of the Golden Bull


From Midas -- Sharefin, 17:44:41 03/25/02 Mon

On the club "Gold Trades As High As $312 in Dubai!

Volume was HUGE today on the Comex as The Gold Cartel desperately tries to keep gold from blowing through $300 again. Word on the floor has it that Goldman Sachs has a client that is long 2000 $300 OTC calls that expire tomorrow morning. Could be an interesting night and morning? Will this customer exercise these calls like someone did at $292.50 when time ran out? If you will remember, those calls were $2.50 out of the money too.

Stealth silver keeps creepin' up. All aboard the Silver Streak!

Nick Ferris, CEO of J-Pacific Gold, has a good number of connections in the Arab world. He informed me this morning that gold traded at one point as high as $312 today in Dubai. Last Friday he reported that the volume in Dubai had increased 4/5 fold.

Nick noted that this is reminiscent of what happened after the Washington Agreement was announced on September 26, 1999. Panic set in and the physical market traded at times as much as $50 higher than was quoted in London and on the Comex. The physical gold market is beginning to seize up just as the Middle East heats up!

What we have now in the Middle East could be a clue as to what is right around the corner in other physical gold centers. After all, there are 15,000 tonnes of shorts out there and they are trapped.

To add to the potential explosiveness, the back months in silver are now offered 30 cents higher than their quoted price. 30 cents!!! At certain times a few weeks ago, silver was offered 18 cents higher. My source thought that was outrageous. You cannot buy the back silver months in size AT ALL without being hosed, not even via spreads. The bottom line is that traders on the floor know a silver price explosion is coming and want no part of the short side down the road.


Giovanni -- Sharefin, 17:42:32 03/25/02 Mon

It's happening as we speak.

As for gold stocks - I'm a mug as I don't own one.
Just 100% in physicals.(:-))))


Gold share Mania- @sharefin -- Giovanni Dioro, 13:53:52 03/25/02 Mon

Nick,

Just to add, I think we may well be heading for a gold stock mania, especially if we can get gold and/or silver up +30% or so. That would add impetus to the on-going rally.

However, I feel that gold shares are not widely held by the public and therefore any possible mania hasn't yet begun.


Gold Shares Getting Ahead of Themselves - @sharefin -- Giovanni Dioro, 13:50:05 03/25/02 Mon

Nick,

It does seem that gold shares have been getting ahead of themselves. Perhaps that is a bullish sign in that gold and silver are moving higher in the near future. I hope so.

I don't own any pm shares, though I have about 20% of my portfolio in bullion. I might be tempted into the odd mining company, though I think like you said many of them are hyped without much substance behind them. Moreover, I wouldn't trust american mining companies for dodgy accounting.

I believe dividends are very important in this environment. A mining company with a good yield, who is in sound financial shape, and has honest management would be appealing. However with the run up in mining companies over the past year dividend yields have dropped markedly.

My advice would be to tread carefully in any investment in this precarious global environment, and obviously precious metals are safe, whereas mining shares are often very speculative and thus should not make up 100% of one's portfolio IMHO.


Gold -- Sharefin, 09:14:24 03/25/02 Mon

Newcrest up on takeover, asset sale talk


Gold -- Sharefin, 09:11:50 03/25/02 Mon

WGC Weekly Report pdf file

At a conference organised by the World Gold Council in New Delhi, Indian Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Reddy has
said that the Reserve Bank would favour any firm proposal for the establishment of a gold exchange in the country. An
RBI standing committee is already studying the feasibility of starting futures trading. He also confirmed that the RBI has
no intention of selling gold, of which the RBI holds 375.8 tonnes.
The latest report from the Swiss National Bank suggests that gold sales over the latest ten-day reporting period, to March
20 th , amounted to approximately 9.4 tonnes. This takes cumulative sales under the disposal programme, which is within the
auspices of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, to approximately 472.5t.
The ECB's latest weekly financial statement includes an increase in gold holdings of €103M. This is equivalent to almost
10 tonnes. The ECB has said that this reflects the expiry of a gold swap agreement of one of the ESCB central bank
members.
The very strong investor demand for physical gold in Japan generated a large increase in imports in February, to
19.54 tonnes. Although March is reportedly not as strong as February in terms of physical offtake, demand remains very
healthy and March will be a strong month also.


Giovanni -- Sharefin, 08:31:53 03/25/02 Mon

It now seems to be the season when the touters & shysters move into gold.
Like any mania I am sure many people will get rich by taking others money away from them.

Harry & Bill are doubling their prices and e-gold clones touting profits from thin air are springing up everywhere.

Lots of penny dreadfulls that swung over to dot coms to fleece the investors are now targeting back towards gold.

Many many innocent ignorant folk will hand their money over to others more crafty than they.

The essence of gold which makes it shine as a monetary backstop unfortunately draws all types and this mania will be no different.

We’ve just had the biggest bubble ever in stocks and have now embarked on the biggest bubble in gold.
Methinks this mania will smell as badly as the Nasdaq by the time it's over.

Such a shame to foul such a noble metal…………


Gold -- Sharefin, 08:13:28 03/25/02 Mon

Fed considered emergency measures to save economy

The US Federal Reserve in January considereda variety of "unconventional" emergency measures to be taken if cutting short-term interest rates failed to arrest a US recession and prevent Japanese-style deflation. One of those steps may have been a plan to buy US stocks.

The official, who asked not to be named, would not elaborate but mentioned "buying US equities" as an example of such possible measures, and later said the Fed "could theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system" including "state and local debt, real estate and gold mines - any asset".

-----
So the Feds have discussed buying goldmines to support the economy......hmmmmm.....


Harry Schultz on Gold -- Giovanni Dioro, 07:46:40 03/25/02 Mon

March 25, 2002

***Special golden Memo from Uncle Harry:

Most gold shares went wild this week, especially on Thurs / Fri, breaking out of consolidation patterns. Their action is so bullish, many have given buy signals despite the run-up & indeed because of it.

Why? Because the consolidation patterns (eg, Goldfields) can be seen now as a mid-leg flag action, which means there's a lot more to come in this leg.

FMU recommendations: buy on Monday: Goldfields Ltd (symbol: GOLD) at the open at mkt. Harmony (HGMCY) at mkt at open.
AgnicoEagle (AEM): try buy at 12.5.

For more stocks & details & selling targets, watch for GOLD CHARTS R Us on Wednesday, if U subscribe. If U don't subscribe, U better do so fast. The gold bull mkt is into its strongest (2nd) phase now. Our Gold Club charter membership is available at the charter member level for only a few more weeks, ie $50/mo vs $100/mo thereafter. It's your call. Anchors Away.

Uncle Harry
Harry Schultz Letter


Japs and Gold -- Giovanni Dioro, 07:42:35 03/25/02 Mon

***Nikkei Weekly, Tatsuya Inoue, March 18, 2002:

'Spooked savers spark modern-day gold rush'

"A modern-day gold rush is sweeping the nation. But instead of heading for the hills, a number of wealthy individuals are heading for local precious metal retailers to convert piles of cash into gold bars.

"As the date nears when the Japanese government ends its full guarantee of bank deposits, gold is regaining its luster in the eyes of the nation's individual investors.

"Many wealthy citizens are changing their asset allocations from bank deposits to other investment tools such as gold, and the move has steadily pushed up prices of the metal.

"Precious-metal retailers are thrilled by the bullish mood, but caution still prevails, because recent history teaches us that gold booms in Japan end up with individual investors suffering hidden losses.

"Osamu Ikeda, chief of the president's office at the nation's largest precious-metal dealer Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK, first noticed the sea change in investors' sentiment last summer, when the bullish buying by individuals started. Since then, Ikeda has seen a growing number of customers coming into its flagship store in Tokyo, and has convinced himself that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to market gold to Japanese consumers.

"Customers generally purchase 5-10kg of gold bars, valued at around 7-14 million yen ($54,300 to $108,500), but some have bought as much as 30-40kg of gold. The quantity of gold sold in February at Tanaka's 144 retail stores, including its agent stores nationwide, increased ninefold from the same month last year.

"Tanaka Kikinzoku is not alone. Ace Koeki Co., a major commodity futures broker, launched a sales campaign in its 14 stores nationwide for two months through last December, offering discounted commission fees of 5 yen per gram, in order to rekindle consumers' desire for gold. Ace Koeki sold a total of 700kg of gold bullion in the campaign. "We sold around 50kg of physical gold per month last year, so the total amount sold in the campaign jumped sevenfold," said Nobuyuki Kudo, assistant vice president of the general planning department of the company.

"Bullish buying boosted gold imports. Statistics released by the Finance Ministry found that gold imports tripled year on year to 8.17 metric tons in January. That figure is up 110% from last December.

"The total trading volume of gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) in February posted around 2.87 million shares, up 360.8% from a year earlier. "Some individual investors aggressively participate in the gold-futures market by shifting money from the stock market," said Norihiko Ishikawa, a spokesperson at TOCOM.

"Investment demand for gold in Japan has had an impact on the global gold market. "The topping at $300 per troy ounce early in February in the New York market was caused in part by Japan's growing demand for gold. I saw TOCOM prices for gold futures leading the global market for the first time in nearly 10 years," added Ishikawa. For around two years, gold prices on the New York market hovered below $300 per ounce due mainly to sluggish demand. But the bearish market sentiment turned bullish after Sept. 11. "In addition, the Japanese gold boom is playing a major role in pushing up the price of gold even further," said Koichiro Kamei, managing director at Market Strategy Institute.

"The price of gold on international markets has been in a downward trend since it reached $850 per troy ounce in 1980. In the meantime, Japan has experienced 10 gold booms, which were mainly sparked by dips in domestic gold prices accelerated by the appreciation of the yen against the dollar, according to gold analysts. But such booms faded soon after the market stabilized, leaving individual investors burned.

"However, the retailers insist that this time is different. "The current gold boom appeals to people's common sense, and industry people are aware of this," said Itsuo Toshima, regional director of Japan and South Korea at the World Gold Council, the London-based nonprofit association of gold producers worldwide.

"He listed four points that characterize the boom: "The boom has been long-lived, lasting more than half a year since last summer. A wide variety of people, of all ages, have played a major role in investment. Buyers want to stock the metal in their homes, rather than keep it in a bank deposit box. And individuals are buying the metal even in an upward trend of the gold market."

"Japanese have become more concerned about volatility of the currency and stock markets in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the U.S., the collapse of U.S. energy company Enron and the Argentine government's possible default on its samurai bonds. According to retailers, individual investors think that even if the gold price drops sharply, the value of gold will never disappear completely.

"Another factor behind the buying binge is that individuals want to cope with the new bank-deposit rules. From April 1 this year, the government will guarantee a maximum of 10 million yen plus accrued interest on time deposits."


Hyper-inflation @ shell -- Giovanni Dioro, 07:32:10 03/25/02 Mon

I realise in a usury-based monetary system there are expansions and contractions. When a person borrows money he must return the capital and the interest - the interest that heretofore did not exist, and trying to scramble for this extra money causes contractions.

However since our currencies are intrinsically worthless pieces of paper or entries into a ledger or computer, endless amounts of this currency can be created into existence.

For example, the Fed can print and buy whatever it wants. The govt can print T-bonds at will and give them to the Fed in exchange for endless amounts of currency with which it can buy whatever it wants.

There can nonetheless occur a contraction if the Fed stops printing, but that would throw the whole country into anarchy and would ruin this babylonian currency regime that has been so profitable to its owners.

I expect we will see stagflation as consumers and businesses are squeezed, but as the govt spends openly in ever growing largesse and as the Fed spends covertly.


Bundesbank -- Sharefin, 02:21:54 03/25/02 Mon

Bundesbank may sell some gold reserves

The Bundesbank is considering selling a small part of its vast gold reserves for shares, the German central bank's president Ernst Welteke said in a newspaper interview published on Monday.

"We must consider in the medium term if we can't convert some of our gold - small volume and without pressurising the market - into securities," Welteke told the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.


Trying to spook the markets again - shows their desperation -- Sharefin, 02:16:39 03/25/02 Mon

Welteke says Buba considering converting some gold reserves into shares

FRANKFURT (AFX) - Bundesbank president Ernst Welteke said the bank is considering converting a portion of its gold reserves to buy blue chip shares from 2004.

"We must consider if in the mid term if we could to a limited extent and without pressurising the (gold) market convert some of our gold into equities,"

Welteke told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in an interview.

He said the bank would most likely buy Euro Stoxx 50 listed shares, or other standard blue chip stocks.

The Bundesbank wants to manage its portfolio of gold and currency reserves more efficiently in the future, he said.

The agreement between the eurosystem's central banks not to sell more than 400 tons of gold each year expires in 2004.

According to the paper the Bundesbank holds some 3,500 tons of gold with a total value of 35 bln eur.

---------------
It's becoming so transparent that soon when the Bundesbank releases a negative comment, the traders will bid the price higher rather than sell.

And it won't be long before they run out of small excuses to dampen the POG and will have to bring out the big guns in an attempt to qwell the POG.

Their desperation will become so blatently obvious.......


Anglogold -- Sharefin, 02:10:33 03/25/02 Mon

Anglo in new takeover speculation

Anglogold has emerged as a potential suitor for Newcrest Mining Ltd as speculation hardens that the Australian gold major is ripe for takeover or is planning a major asset sale to fund growth.

Newcrest gained seven percent on Monday on takeover speculation.


Gold -- Sharefin, 02:08:51 03/25/02 Mon

Anglogold Annual Report

Anglogold Review of gold market




Gold -- Sharefin, 02:06:14 03/25/02 Mon

Hedgers, non-hedgers in sync

Hedgers and non-hedgers were singing from the same hymn sheet last week as both camps gave similarly bullish forecasts for the year ahead in the gold market. The message from both sides of the increasingly polarised gold producing sector was clear, hedgers are scaling back their forward positions and a wealth of high cost production is being shut down; also helping the metal along is the fact that uncertainty in some of the world's largest economies is signalling a return to gold's safe haven qualities for the broader investment community.
While Gold Fields chief executive designate Ian Cockerill was preaching the anti-hedging gospel to the gold industry in Perth, compatriot and arch-hedger AngloGold used the launch of its 2001 annual report to paint a bullish outlook for the gold market this year.

AngloGold bullish on gold

AngloGold marketing director Kelvin Williams said new mine supply would decline materially over the next five years, which would add impetus to an improving supply-side picture for bullion. "A further positive impact on the supply side is already being experienced in the absence of significant new hedging of future production by gold mining companies," said Williams. In his overview of the gold market, Williams said the pull back of producer hedging was occurring in tandem with an increasing number of gold producers running down their hedges by delivering gold into existing contracts, instead of selling it into spot market.

"One final element in favour of the market has been a net decrease in the physical disinvestment of gold, particularly from European holders of the metal, but also in respect of the post 1999 flow-back of coins in the US market," said Williams.

Hedge underwater

AngloGold also used the opportunity to remind investors that it had wound up 3.4 million ounces of its hedge book last year and would continue reducing its rand-priced forward cover by restructuring its hedge.

AngloGold's hedge book still has 14.5 million ounces sold forward until 2011; that covers 21.2 percent of its reserves of 68 million ounces and 4.18 percent of its resource base of 346.8 million ounces. This year, AngloGold's hedge position covers 60 percent of its expected production of 5.8 million ounces.


Robert Chapman - Gold Commentary -- Sharefin, 00:36:21 03/25/02 Mon

JP Morgan will scale back some of its credit commitments to highly rated clients. They say it is perception, we say they have some serious problems, particularly in gold derivatives. They want to start by capping credit lines.
------
Turkish gold imports continued to the upside two weeks ago at 4.2 tons. Physical demand at this level means many believe war is coming to the Middle East.
Day after day TOCOM volume in gold continues to be higher than the COMEX. Those who believe that this will come to an end on 3/31/02 are sadly mistaken. Fear has taken hold in Japan. There could be $500 to $700 billion in buying over the next year. How does the criminal cartel like those apples?
We believe that India’s official gold imports will exceed 670 tons in 2002 up from 594 tons in 2001.
Eleven gold timing newsletters recommended gold market exposure at 54.7% as of 3/08/02 up from 37.5 the previous week. Except for traders short-term gold market machinations are not important. What is important is long-term fundamentals. The optimistic goal for exposure is 80.6% and 54.7% is a long ways away. Gold has been in a bull market since last June and probably a year before that. The important thing is staying the course and looking at the longer term. There are only $35 billion worth of gold shares out there and once the investing public rediscovers gold and gold shares there just won’t be enough to go around thus the upside will be phenomenal. We have had a stealth gold and silver bull market so far and that’s good. It allows the introspective and diligent to cash in on their homework. Soon the dollar will fall, foreigners will sell dollar assets and gold and silver will move higher. The 22-year bear market will be history and all that pent up demand will spring forward. We see the levels of $512.50 to $525, $670 to $680 an ounce being easily breached. Then the attack on the old high of $820 to $850 an ounce. Many will make fortunes as 95% of investors stand by and watch, as they believe the lies of our government and Wall Street. Remember there are more Enron’s out there and like Enron they won’t be single issue scandals but interlocking scandals, each outrageous in its own right. Lies, false accounting, gimmicks, deception and the buying of political influence have been going on for years and will now be exposed. The coming financial catastrophe, which only gold and silver will survive, will shake the world to its very foundations.

--------
SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION
Robert Chapman
email


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:53:18 03/24/02 Sun

NY gold vaults $295/oz, consolidation ends bullish

COMEX gold muscled past resistance at $295 an ounce Friday, ending more than two-weeks of range trading on a bullish note, even as traders wondered where the overbought market would find new buyers.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:46:06 03/24/02 Sun

NY Precious Metals Review: Gold Hits Stops

Precious metals prices settled higher Friday as gold bid farewell to the doldrums and spiked up toward the $300 level on vigorous fund and stop-loss buying, participants said.
"It started out with fund buying. The weaker yen sure didn't hurt the market, that's for sure. After (buy-)stops were hit at $295.00-$295.50, I noted a little trade buying," said Dave Meger, senior metals analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, naming the trading division of a major U.S. investment bank.
The trade buying in turn encouraged a continuation of fund buying all the way through to the peak at $297.80 an ounce, basis April gold on Comex, he added. He said he would have expected trade selling into the gains, but instead they were pushing it higher.
The April contract finally settled $4.50 higher at $297.60 a troy ounce, holding fast the top of its range Friday.Gold has done a good job of rebounding from downside pressure of late to build on a base above $290, which has been reflected in a bullish technical chart pattern. But the weaker yen against the dollar and an apparent procrastinating stance toward fighting deflation by Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi have again rattled investor confidence in the banking system and spurred demand for gold, market analyst Rhona O'Connell at the World Gold Council said.
"The Japanese (factor) is the only thing people are chatting about. You've got to have a reason (for the rally). I think it's a reason, but I'm not sure it's THE reason," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill.
"The predominant influence was stop-loss buying," he explained. "There were too many shorts and they all had their stops in the same place ($294-$296), and we ran through it. It's not surprising."
Prudential Securities senior vice president George Gero said he was encouraged by the fact that speculative funds were willing to pay almost full carry (the premium on forward prices over the nearby contract) to roll their April positions into June.
"Normally there's been liquidation as you get closer to delivery, but you have more of a rollover this time," he said.
Open interest for April gold was down to 59,916 contracts, while June's open interest had risen to 36,210 contracts by the end of trading Friday.
Kaplan said the rally stopped where it had to stop, just short of major resistance at $298. He expected it to test the bottom end of its new trading channel - $294-$298 - on Monday before it can continue higher. Support is now seen at the failed resistance level of $295 an ounce.
Silver's jump to $4.575 seemed to precede gold's move but it failed to attract follow-through buying from funds and sank back to end at $4.54 an ounce, a 3.2-cent gain on the day.
Alaron's Meger speculated it was only local floor brokers behind the spike, but said he was somewhat surprised it didn't have the momentum to pop up through the $4.58 resistance level. He added that he's been waiting for the market to fill a technical gap up to $4.66 for weeks.
April platinum had already bounced off its new low of $506 on locals scrambling to cover short positions when gold made its big move. But it was able to nose above resistance between $513 and $515 an ounce on the back of gold, where it had previously failed. The contract ended $5.70 higher at $515.00.
June palladium also got a boost, finally breaking above $380 after numerous frustrated attempts earlier this week.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:42:50 03/24/02 Sun

Gold Glitters In Tepid Session

"Frankly, the only place we saw any action today was in gold shares," said Barry Hurwitz, ADR trader at ING Barings.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:32:39 03/24/02 Sun

Gold at the Crossroads


Platinum -- Sharefin, 19:23:36 03/24/02 Sun

Commodities Corner -- Platinum Spikes


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:15:39 03/24/02 Sun

Gold Rises on Expectations of Higher Investor Demand in Japan

Gold futures had their biggest gain in three weeks on expectations that investors in Japan will seek alternatives to a tumbling stock market.

Japanese manufacturers and investors bought 32.5 metric tons of gold in the fourth quarter, making Japan the seventh-largest gold consumer, according to a report last month from the World Gold Council, a London-based industry group. Investors bought 21.5 tons, or about two-thirds of total purchases.

``There has been something of a gold rush in Japan, and demand has continued very strongly into this quarter,'' Katherine Pulvermacher, investment research manager at the World Gold Council, said yesterday.


Gold takes centre stage -- Sharefin, 19:14:10 03/24/02 Sun

Gold takes centre stage

Analysts said most interest appeared to be in gold stocks, on the back of a rise in the price of gold by $US4.50 to $US297.60 an ounce in New York on Friday and a perception that the Japanese were buying.


hyperinflation/gianni -- shell, 19:12:42 03/24/02 Sun

i should have mentioned the key role of a massive bond market like ours
should'nt say 'ludicrous'-it locks you out of chance of learning something new---should say,'puzzling'


Lenny's Commentary -- Sharefin, 18:58:31 03/24/02 Sun

GENERAL COMMENTS

The average Japanese investor is looking for a "safe haven" OUTSIDE of the normal financial channels, and only gold answers their needs at present.


Gold -- Sharefin, 18:54:05 03/24/02 Sun

Gold COT Commentary


Hyper-inflation -- Giovanni Dioro, 11:50:14 03/24/02 Sun

Of Course hyper-inflation is possible because "our" monetary system is based on printing press money and credit that can and is created at will.

All it takes is for the people to start running out of the currency and into another asset.

Look at Argentina for example. The people started running from Pesos and started frantically selling them for dollars. Argentina was on the verge of hyper-inflation when the govt stepped in and froze/confiscated bank accounts and prohibited money transfers.

To say the same thing couldn't happen in north america, europe, or Japan is ludicrous.


cant happen to US$!,-- bearclaw -- shell, 08:47:59 03/24/02 Sun

NO NO NO!!!!!--you cant get german-style hyperinflation in our type of CREDIT system--at about 20% inflation it comes tumbling down, into DEFLATION
its only possible in a CASH economy


cant happen to US$!,-- bearclaw -- shell, 08:43:32 03/24/02 Sun

NO NO NO!!!!!--you cant get german-style hyperinflation in our type of CREDIT system--at about 20% inflation it comes tumbling down, into DEFLATION
its only possible in a CASH economy


Silver -- Sharefin, 16:37:43 03/23/02 Sat

The Coming Silver Explosion


XAU Index -- Sharefin, 16:35:56 03/23/02 Sat




GOX at two year highs -- Sharefin, 16:34:52 03/23/02 Sat




Gold -- Sharefin, 16:33:02 03/23/02 Sat

HUI - Gold Bugs Index at 2-year high

A rise in shares of several metals companies Thursday prompted the Amex Gold Bugs Index to close at its highest level in over two years.

Other metals indexes climbed throughout most of the session before pulling back near the close of trading. Gold futures settled slightly higher within a recent price range.

"The stocks are clearly moving independently ahead of the metal, which has moved sideways for five trading days while the XAU index is up 8 percent," said Prescott Crocker, a fund manager for the Evergreen Precious Metals Fund

Crocker believes the move is in response to commodity price strength as well as some speculation on the likelihood of re-inflation with the bond market moving down and the Fed changing its policy characteristics.

Over on the futures front, "the Japanese situation is still the focal point of gold," David Meger, senior metals analyst at Alaron.com in Chicago, said in a note to clients.




Gold -- Sharefin, 15:47:18 03/23/02 Sat

NY gold vaults $295/oz, consolidation ends bullish

``There are a number of different things that seem to be causing a tidal shift, aside from what we saw today, although I think today is one of those minor ripples within that tidal shift,'' said a metals specialist at a major broker dealer.


James Dines on video -- Sharefin, 21:39:47 03/22/02 Fri

James Dines bullish on gold


Carl Swenlin on Gold -- Sharefin, 21:29:29 03/22/02 Fri

OUTLOOK FOR GOLD

I began to get long-term bullish on gold at the 1999 breakout. At the time there was extreme pessimism by most analysts, a default position that had been rewarded for many years. When I saw the long-term double bottom and breakout in 2001, I became very bullish, and I will stay that way unless the rising trend from the 2001 bottom is violated.

I will personally not be trying to trade it on the way up. Gold is subject to quite explosive advances, so I'm holding my BUY Signal in the belief that I am more likely to catch one of the big up moves than I am to be stopped out by another retest of 20-year lows.

The real test, it seems to me, will come at the resistance at 325. Upside target is 500.

--Carl Swenlin




Gold -- Sharefin, 21:13:41 03/22/02 Fri

'Hedging coming home to roost' - Cockerill

A looming supply-side squeeze amid a broad-based revival of demand for gold could leave hedged gold producers and bullion banks alike, struggling to cover their short positions. Ian Cockerill, the chief executive designate of South Africa's largest unhedged producer Gold Fields, said today a confluence of demand and supply side factors were flagging an imminent bull run for gold which could spell trouble for some of the industry's most prolific hedgers.
Ironically, its is the sustained weakness in the gold market over more than a decade may have sewn the seeds for the industry's own recovery and indeed, its long term sustainability. And it is this recovery in the gold market which may spell disaster for some members of the hedging community.

As gold producers have spent the past decade trying to come to grips with the market's new price reality, exploration dollars have all but dried up and reserves have been high graded to give producers' operating margins some respectability. Cockerill says between 75 million and 85 million ounces of gold are mined each year but are not replaced. Even at this rate, demand for gold is outstripping new mine supply be 1000 tons a year.

"(It) is clear that over the next few years there is going to be a rapid and substantial decline in new mine supply of gold at current prices," said Cockerill. He said at best, the world's ten top new gold projects would bring another five million ounces of production on line, which was "not remotely enough to fill the gap".

"In order to (fill the gap) we need a gold price moving into the mid-$300 an ounce range for a significant period of time, on top of which we need at least two years to construct the new projects," said Cockerill. The problem though, is that a consistently stronger gold price at the level required to stimulate supply, could spell disaster a large portion of the industry's hedging community.

Cockerill on hedging

"One of the most important facts about hedging that one needs to understand is that in a declining market, hedging is a source of supply onto the market. Conversely, in a rising gold market, hedging rapidly turns into a source of demand for gold as producers scramble to cover their positions," said Cockerill.

"I propose to you that in this one year-old rising market, hedging has the potential to become a potentially explosive contributor to gold demand as companies close out their hedges," he said.

"At a gold price of $312 an ounce and at current exchange rates, the non-US gold book goes under water. This is exacerbated for some producers by currency hedges that are also under water…the hedging of prevoious years is now coming home to roost and companies who have pawned the family gold, may have to face serious challenges and tough questions from shareholders," said Cockerill. He added that the fall out from a protracted run in the bullion price extend to all hedging counter-parties, including bullion banks.


Japan -- Sharefin, 21:06:12 03/22/02 Fri

Japan's choices: 'Crash landing, hard landing'

Dr. Fukao points out however that the U.S. government of Franklin D. Roosevelt waded heavily into the economy during the Depression in the 1930s. In addition to massive government labour programs and expansionary monetary policy, it introduced a price support system and devalued the dollar against gold.

"They experimented with everything," Dr. Fukao said.

Dr. Fukao said wading into the stock market should not be viewed as much different than buying or selling gold to manipulate inflation as governments have done in the past. The stock market is the modern day capital equivalent of gold.

The measures Dr. Fukao suggest may produce a hard landing but its preferable to the crash landing that could eventually ensue.

If the government does not take tough measures Dr. Fukao envisages an eventual run on the banks as domestic investors finally lose confidence and scurry to gold, foreign currency and real estate.


From the Far Side -- Sharefin, 21:02:45 03/22/02 Fri

Heres a little taste of what could happen to the $USD

(Bearclaw) Mar 22, 21:54
Hyper-Inflation, and the German Mark
Date ......Number of German Marks to buy one ounce of gold
Jan 1919 .......170.00
Sept 1919 ......499.00
Jan 1920 .......1,340.00
Sept 1920...... 1,201.00
Jan 1921 .......1,349.00
Sept 1921...... 2,175.00
Jan 1922 .......3,976.00
Sept 1922...... 30,381.00
Jan 1923 .......372,477.00
Sept 1923...... 269,439,000.00
Oct 2, 1923.... 6,631,749,000.00
Oct 9, 1923..... 24,868,950,000.00
Oct 16, 1923.... 84,969,072,000.00
Oct 23, 1923 ...1,160,552,882,000.00
Oct 30, 1923... 1,347,070,000,000.00
Nov 5, 1923 ...8,700,000,000,000.00
Nov 30, 1923... 87,000,000,000,000.00


Blips & ticks -- Sharefin, 20:51:29 03/22/02 Fri

The pop in gold shows up quite differently on these three charts.

The first chart shows the Kicto 24 hour chart where the jump looks to have started from the base of the run at just under $295 and rose up to just under $300 before settling back to just over $296 with this move looking to have taken 30 odd minutes.

The second chart shows the Kitco New York chart where the move up is separate from the spike which occured about 10 minutes later. In this case the blip appears to be about 7 minutes in duration.

The third chart shows the gold price tick-by-tick as each trade occurs. On this chart it is quite clear that gold traded (or was it a data error) for only one trade at this price.
It appears as almost an illusion traded to take on the appearance of a price spike when it is moreso a data error.

Who is playing who, as the POG works it's way higher???








Lifted from the far side -- Shadowfax, 20:35:20 03/22/02 Fri

Heres a little taste of what could happen to the $USD


Hyper-Inflation, and the German Mark Date Number of German Marks
to buy one ounce of gold
Jan 1919 .......170.00
Sept 1919 ......499.00
Jan 1920 .......1,340.00
Sept 1920...... 1,201.00
Jan 1921 .......1,349.00
Sept 1921...... 2,175.00
Jan 1922 .......3,976.00
Sept 1922...... 30,381.00
Jan 1923 .......372,477.00
Sept 1923...... 269,439,000.00
Oct 2, 1923.... 6,631,749,000.00
Oct 9, 1923..... 24,868,950,000.00
Oct 16, 1923.... 84,969,072,000.00
Oct 23, 1923 ...1,160,552,882,000.00
Oct 30, 1923... 1,347,070,000,000.00
Nov 5, 1923 ...8,700,000,000,000.00
Nov 30, 1923... 87,000,000,000,000.00


James Dines on Nightly Business Report -- Shadowfax, 19:43:34 03/22/02 Fri

3/22/02: Market Monitor-James Dines, Editor of "The Dines Letter,"




PAUL KANGAS: My market monitor guest this week is James Dines, Editor of "The Dines Letter," based in Belvedere, California. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Jim.

JAMES DINES, EDITOR, "THE DINES LETTER": Hi, Paul.

KANGAS: During your last visit with us on October 19 of last year, you said we should be expecting the father of all bear markets. Well, the Dow Industrial average then was 9,200 and now it's about 13 percent higher and the Nasdaq Composite is 12 percent higher. Where's the bear?

DINES: We're only three months into the year. We still feel that it's going to come down very hard in the first half of the year. If you remember, the last time I was on your show, everybody was very pessimistic. We were looking for a sharp year end rally. We got that and our forecast issue said we're going to come down hard into April or May. And that still stands. And second of all, 13 percent means nothing to me. I mean I don't want no stinking 13 percent. I'm in this for blood. I want to double or triple my money.

KANGAS: Well, I have to say that the only stocks you liked back then were the golds and they have done exceedingly well. As a matter of fact, the gold group, I believe, is the best performing group since then, is that not true?

DINES: That's the truth. They, Lipper (ph) says that they're the best performing group in January and February so far.

KANGAS: Well, let me recall for our viewers the stocks you recommended, three of them. Franko Nevada Gold at $22. It was taken over by Newmont (NEM) at $30 a share. That's a very good percentage move. Anglogold (AU) was $15. It's now in the mid 20s. That's a move of about 60 percent. And Adkniko Gold (ph) was $9. It's now about $12.50, $13. That's about a 40 percent move. So those were great recommendations and I compliment you.

DINES: Thank you. Thank you.

KANGAS: Is it time to take money off the table in those stocks?

DINES: Oh, no. I'm not in this for 50 -- I don't want no stinking 15, 50 percent. I'm looking for, I'm really looking for doubles and triples on these. I think we're in for a huge bull market in the golds and silvers.

KANGAS: OK.

DINES: And the fact that so few people agree with me confirms it in my mind. They're strong. They are in up trends. And, you know, this reminds me, Paul, of 1995. I was on your show talking about Internet stocks. Most people didn't know what the Internet was and people have written to me after that. They said they had made millions on the Internet stocks in subsequent years. We got out in the year 2000. We shifted from the mother of all bull markets to what I now call the father of all bear markets. But the only advice you'll ever get more specific than buying gold and silver will be a margin call. So make sure you buy them.

KANGAS: All right, now, the thing is this will be just the gold and the silvers and everything else is headed lower?

DINES: I think so. I think we're in a major bear market and I'd be very -- I think a year from now when I come on your annual show, I think you're going to see a lower market and higher gold and silver.

KANGAS: Why? What makes you so bearish?

DINES: We're in an international currency crisis. I've been warning for years about this. And you see it in Venezuela and bolivar, the Argentine peso, the Japanese yen, the South African rand, in Europe. All the currencies are breaking down. You notice in Japan there's a stampede by the citizens there to buy gold coins because they're terrified. This is a bull market driven by mass fear.

KANGAS: OK...

DINES: I talked about this in my book, the mass psychology book. Mass greed is one, is the usual kin of bull market. Golds and silvers are the mass fear driven, and they're much more intense.

KANGAS: All right, give us some ideas as to what you would buy in that, in those groups?

DINES: Above all Newmont. This is the world's largest gold mine, blue chip on the New York Stock Exchange. It should be in every portfolio.

KANGAS: OK.

DINES: Second, Placer Dome Gold, PDG. The only major gold that hasn't moved yet. I'd jump on that one. Third, I'd buy the largest silver mine in the world, Dustele Espanoles, $1.70 a share. If you need buying it, I'll put, have my staff put something on the Web site, Dinesletter.com, and I'll tell you how to buy it.

KANGAS: OK.

DINES: And finally deCODE Genetics (DCGN), DCGM. They have a monopoly on Iceland's population going back to the 10th century.

KANGAS: OK. Jim, all right, four stocks you like. And we have about 10, 15 seconds left. Any final thoughts?

DINES: Yes. You can quote me on this, Paul. Whether you're rich or poor, it's good to have a lot of cash.

KANGAS: OK. All right, so you're prepared, but what percentage of your total assets in gold?

DINES: That varies between individuals depending on their risk proclivities. But I would make it substantial. I think gold -- and silver.

KANGAS: OK. All right, we've got to run. Thanks very much, Jim.

DINES: Always.

KANGAS: James Dines of "The Dines Letter."


Harry Schultz Seems to be getting Bullisher and Bullisher -- Giovanni Dioro, 13:54:56 03/22/02 Fri

In the latest Harry Schultz Letter, Harry seems to be getting even more bullish. He seems always to be bullish to some degree.

From memory he says that gold may pull back into support areas in the mid 280's. However he thinks gold could very well make a big move shortly. He says a 2 day close over $305 would be a signal Gold is going higher perhaps towards $354.


CYCLIST -- HOLDEN, 13:08:02 03/22/02 Fri

Cyclist just plain missed it.


Gold Rally -- Gld Fvr, 12:56:49 03/22/02 Fri

Gold rallied today finishing strongly above the key
resistance level at 295.00, furthermore, CNBC reported
that Gold Stocks were the leading sector both yesterday
and today. This is a modern day miracle in the making.
Hats off of course to Maria Bartiromo! You Gold Bugs
gotta be hating yourselves now.


gold -- Sharefin, 06:33:54 03/22/02 Fri

Bracing for the gold boom - Gold Fields

Chief executive designate of Gold Fields, Ian Cockerill, today threw his weight behind the growing momentum in the gold market, with an unashamedly bullish speech touting gold's return to the heady bull market of twenty years ago. Cockerill said increasing numbers of investors across the spectrum were taking defensive positions in gold stocks, proving bullion's safe haven status remained intact despite two decades of relative peace and prosperity.
He stopped short of predicting a price for gold, but said the "new highs and concomitantly higher lows" the metal had recorded over recent months had created a new trading channel. "In my opinion, this is a systemic response to the increasing risk profile of the world. Over this period we have seen an upsurge in interest in gold from retail investors, especially in Japan and Germany, as well as institutional investors world-wide," said Cockerill.

"To me this signals that more and more investors are taking defensive positions in gold - the so-called and much-maligned flight to quality. Which brings us back to the original question: has gold lost its status as a reserve asset? My answer to that is an unequivocal no. Gold was an insurance asset, in fact for much of (2000 years) the only insurance asset. Two thousand years of history is not wiped out in two decades," he said.

Cockerill said a marked rise in global political tension and a simultaneous rise in economic uncertainty in some of the world's major economies, would be the catalyst needed to kick-start a long-awaited bull run in the gold market.

Speaking at the Paydirt Gold conference in Perth, Cockerill said the 12 year era of peace and prosperity which had buoyed world markets - framed by the fall of the Berlin Wall on September 11 1989 and the terror attack on the World Trade Centre on the same date last year - had come to an abrupt end. The death-knell for the unprecedented years of synchronised growth and low inflation, he said, was a signal gold was headed into bull territory.

"This was the era of the peace dividend, the era during which the mighty dollar ruled supreme against all other currencies, including gold. During this period we saw a sustained period of economic growth…unique in that it took place in the absence of significant inflationary pressures," said Cockerill. It was hardly surprising, he said, that gold's status as a reserve asset had declined during this period.

But according to Cockerill, the tables have begun to turn. Cockerill focussed on global economic uncertainty which reared its head in Asia in the late 1990s, followed by calamitous state of the economies of Mexico, Argentina and Japan. Instability in the Middle East, China's relentless ascent to rival the US as a superpower and the increasingly pervasive threat of mass-terrorism, were all bad news for global harmony - but good news for gold.


gold -- Sharefin, 06:31:27 03/22/02 Fri

Gold Set To Be Costlier As World Economy Turns Bullish

International gold prices are expected to rise in the coming months owing to several favourable factors including a pick-up in the world economy, good monsoons, rising inflation rate and a decision by the Bank of England to stop gold auctions. According to the World Gold Council, the international atmosphere was favouring the gold market and it predicted an increase in prices from the present level of about $280-$290 per troy ounce.


gold -- Sharefin, 06:29:46 03/22/02 Fri

Gold Fields boosts JSE

SG Securities analyst Nick Goodwin attributed Gold Fields' gains to reports that Ian Cockerill had said in Australia that a bull run in gold was imminent.

But Goodwin warned: "Gold shares are very high. They are in dangerous territory. If gold doesn't go through $300 an ounce soon, there's big downside risk of 20%."


Japanese Demand For Gold -- Sharefin, 02:18:10 03/22/02 Fri

Strong Japanese Gold Demand To Continue This Year

Japanese investors' appetite for gold will grow even bigger this year, particularly after April 1 when the Japanese government will pull the plug on its blanket guarantee for bank deposits, a senior official of the World Gold Council told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.
Following an astronomical surge in the country's February gold imports, the WGC projects that Japanese demand to be stronger in April and May. Indeed, he projects that imports to continue to remain high this year.
Key behind the strong demand is the "psychological nervousness" amongst Japanese investors and the spectre of more bank failures as the Japanese banking system remains fragile, Itsuo Toshima, Japan's regional director for the World Gold Council, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Friday.
Japanese investors' deposits are currently insulated from any bank failures. But that will change starting April 1, when the government's guarantee is extended only up to Y10 million deposits. Any money over this amount will be lost in the event of a bank failure.
"So far, the Japanese deposits are protected, but only after April will they feel the pain, so the impact on investors will be more severe," said Toshima.
Japan's Ministry of Finance's latest figures show an astronomical 662% rise in February's gold imports to around 19.8 metric tons from a year ago. The huge jump in February showed "the severity of the economic crisis," he said.
Toshima declined to provide a forecast of how much gold Japan would import in April.
Japanese investors are drawn to gold because it is a tangible asset that is all the more valuable in the prevailing doom surrounding the Japanese economy and banking system, Toshima said.
A gold buying boom by Japanese in January and February was responsible for leading the spot market to leap to a two-year high of US$307.80 a troy ounce on Feb. 8. Industry participants continue to monitor Japanese activity when trading gold.

More Gold Buying Likely Ahead Of April 2003

While Japanese investors still have other investment options, such as investing in the U.S. dollar itself or depositing with foreign banks, they still prefer gold, which Toshima described as "nobody's liability."
If they bought the U.S. dollar, they would be exposed to credit risk as they have to deposit it in a bank and take on the bank's liability, he explained.
Which is why, in spite of the risk of theft, Japanese investors prefer to take their gold bars home, in turn driving up sales of home safes and the stock prices of those companies, Toshima mused.
There appears to be more potential for Japanese investment in gold, particularly as the government will apply the Y10 million cap to all ordinary bank deposits from April 1, 2003, he said.
"That will be the worst time for Japanese depositors."
In addition, despite the current surge in Japanese investment in gold, that still takes up a tiny drop of the Y5 trillion of the country's total financial assets of Y1.4 trillion yen, indicating the huge portion of funds that could still flow into gold, he said.
Assuming that only 0.1% of the Y263 trillion, currently tied up in term deposits, flows into gold, that would mean Japanese would buy a ballpark figure of 200 tons of gold, he said.
The series of bond debacles over the past few years also "shattered the myth that fixed income paper assets (are) safe," leading the Japanese to move into something more tangible like gold.
Even the disadvantage of holding gold - that it doesn't provide any interest - is no longer a deterrent to investors due to the low Japanese interest rates, Toshima said.
"Basically, the gold buying is expected to continue as it is rooted in the structural problems of the Japanese economy and the debts held by Japanese banks," which are likely to stay so for another year, he said.


Giovanni - Prometheus - here's the links -- Sharefin, 01:59:51 03/22/02 Fri

Revisionist View Of The Great Depression

Revisionist View Of The Great Depression

Also good reading
Whither Gold>

More Articles


Antal E. Fekete's Article -- Giovanni Dioro, 12:31:34 03/21/02 Thu

Prometheus recommended this article, "REVISIONIST VIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION".

I'm guessing he couldn't link it because of the "dash" in gold-eagle

The link to the first part is:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/fekete030602.html

You can get to the 2nd and final part thru link at the bottom.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:49:52 03/21/02 Thu

RBI not to offload gold, moots Gold Exchange

Ruling out chances of depleting its gold reserves now, Reserve Bank on Thursday mooted a 'Gold Exchange' for trading in gold and a self-regulatory agency, as part of efforts to develop a market for the precious metal and integrate it with the financial market.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:44:47 03/21/02 Thu

WGC Daily Report = PDF file

At a conference organised by the World Gold Council in New Delhi, Indian Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Reddy has
said that the Reserve Bank would favour any firm proposal for the establishment of a gold exchange in the country. An
RBI standing committee is already studying the feasibility of starting futures trading. He also confirmed that the RBI
has no intention of selling gold, of which the RBI holds 375.8 tonnes.
The latest report from the Swiss National Bank suggests that gold sales over the latest ten-day reporting period, to
March 20 th , amounted to approximately 9.4 tonnes. This takes cumulative sales under the disposal programme, which is within the auspices of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, to approximately 472.5t.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:42:18 03/21/02 Thu

Russia Finds Gold In Kuril Islands, Still Claimed By Japan

Russian geologists have discovered a gold deposit on Urup island, which is part of the Kuril group of islands, the Gold Producers Union said Wednesday.

The gold content at the deposit is estimated between 45 and 100 metric tons. The union said it was optimistic about further gold discoveries in the Kuril islands.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:41:17 03/21/02 Thu

A glittering gamble

Experts call for the full opening of China's gold exchange

Huang Jinbao withdrew 100,000 renminbi (US$12,100) from his bank account on November 28 last year to invest in gold after China's first gold exchange made its debut in Shanghai.

But he was disappointed after officials told him that the gold exchange had nothing to do with individual customers at present.

Like Huang Jinbao, many of China's individual investors eyeing gold investments have to wait another two to three years before the gold market is completely opened, say experts and officials.

"The total liberalisation of China's gold market is a step- bystep process," says Liu Shan'en, deputy-director of the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Centre.

Following the opening of the national gold exchange in Shanghai in November, regional gold bourses should also be launched to lay a foundation for the opening of the retail market, he says. In addition, a consistent and transparent national gold investment regulation should be established to facilitate gold transactions, he adds.

Currently, there are no unified regulations on gold transactions in China, and different regions operate according to their own understanding, which has led to great confusion.

Besides the regulation, banks and gold enterprises should co- ordinate their efforts and share their experiences in order to prepare for the full opening of the market, Liu says.

All these measures will be finalised in the next two to three years, and the ultimate goal is to liberalise China's gold market for individual investors, says an official with the Gold Management Bureau under the State Economic and Trade Commission.

So far, gold jewellery accounts for 96% of gold consumption in China, which ranks third in the worldwide demand for gold. Its total demand for gold stood at 156 tonnes in the first three quarters last year.

The Chinese tradition of collecting gold as a way to maintain asset value is expected to make the retail market prosperous once it is made available to individual purchasers.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:37:11 03/21/02 Thu

India RBI Favors Forming Gold Exchange

According to Reddy, the Indian gold market is integrating with the international gold market and therefore must be integrated with the financial market in India which means an assured trading and settlement system is needed.

"So the next step forward has to be a gold exchange," he said.

Industry members have said gold jewelry exporters in India would benefit from a gold exchange as an exchange would make the market more transparent.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:35:11 03/21/02 Thu

Newcrest lifts gold inventory to 29 mln oz

Newcrest Mining Ltd said on Wednesday its estimated resources inventory of gold had tripled to 29 million ounces following a study of its Telfer lode in Western Australia.



"The combination of Newcrest's current 10.4 million ounce reserve and the 19 million ounce Telfer project planning inventory trebles the company's total gold mining inventory to approximately 29 million ounces," it said

Newcrest was 3.8 percent, or 18 cents higher at A$5.45 in late morning trading, outpacing gains in the Australian index of gold mining companies, which was 0.3 percent higher.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:33:06 03/21/02 Thu

One billion dollar expansion of WA gold mine

A gold mine in Western Australia is to be re-opened, in a one Billion dollar plan unveiled by Newcrest Mining.

The Telfer Mine in the Pilbara operated for more than 20 years before being de-comissioned in mid-2000 because of rising production costs.

Newcrest Mining says that over the next 20 years it intends to take at least 19 million ounces of gold from the mine.

Managing director Tony Palmer says one thousand jobs will be created during construction and 600 to 700 miners will be required when Telfer becomes operational:

"This is a hugely significant operation ... Telfer .... and it transforms Newcrest into one of the big gold mining companies in the world."


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:31:21 03/21/02 Thu

Goldcorp CEO seeks to break mining mold

Chief Executive Rob McEwen is looking for his next big gold property on the World Wide Web, and he is offering $2 million in prizes to anyone who can help find it in a global challenge.

Such unconventional thinking has paid off before.

Two years ago McEwen posted usually confidential data from Goldcorp's main Red Lake mine in Canada on the Web and offered $500,000 to "geological voyeurs" who could target the next 6 million ounces of gold on the property.

McEwen said he got 475,000 hits and tripled Red Lake's reserves and resources to 5 million ounces, thanks to proposals from people in Australia, Canada, the United States and Russia.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:24:29 03/21/02 Thu

Japan's gold imports surge 7-fold

Japanese investors imported 19,754 kilograms (635,000 ounces) of gold in February, up a stunning 662 percent from the same month last year, according to the government's trade report Wednesday.

This month, says Itsuo Toshima, regional director of the World Gold Council, gold buying in Japan "has slowed, although (is) still double to triple year-to-year in March."

Toshima says the recent Tokyo stock market rally has lent "a sense of temporary relief." The Nikkei Average fell 2.3 percent Wednesday. See Asia Markets.

The surge in gold imports "can be attributed to the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetization of government debt, which, if left unchecked, will result in the elimination of deflation and the start of inflation," said Ken Landon, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo.

"Japanese citizens are clearly losing confidence in the monetary policy of the BOJ and are buying gold to protect against a potential meltdown in the value of the yen," he said.


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:21:55 03/21/02 Thu

ORE STRUCK: Gadgets worth weight in gold


Derivatives, gold & Enron -- Sharefin, 07:16:27 03/21/02 Thu

Feinstein rejects changes to energy derivatives bill

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said Monday she would push ahead with legislation to regulate energy and metals derivatives like those traded by Enron Corp in the multi-billion dollar over-the-counter market.

Feinstein, a Democrat, said she rejected a request from Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, to exempt metals derivatives and to drop price-transparency requirements from the measure.

The proposed legislation would give the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulatory oversight of all energy and metals derivatives to better track large trades in the highly secret over-the-counter market and to respond faster to any illegal activity in the market.

The measure, which Feinstein will try to add to a broad energy policy bill before the Senate, was delayed for several days while she unsuccessfully negotiated with Republicans.

Gramm's wife, Wendy, is the former chairman of the CFTC and a member of Enron's board of directors.

Under Feinstein's plan, the Senate would repeal a Congressional exemption that allows firms to buy and sell electricity, natural gas, oil, gasoline and metals in the OTC market without disclosing information on such deals to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The energy OTC market is traded privately among companies and other institutional investors, not on regulated exchanges such as the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The trades that Enron carried out in the OTC market have been blamed for pushing up electricity and natural gas prices in the West last year.

The Feinstein proposal is opposed by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, who have expressed ``serious concerns'' about it.

Greenspan and O'Neill said putting the OTC market under government oversight would cause legal uncertainties over the transactions entered into by the market participants.

Feinstein said she rejected Gramm's request to exempt energy swaps from CFTC anti-fraud authority, to delete all public price transparency requirements, and to drop metals derivatives from the bill. She also refused to exempt all electronic exchanges from requirements that they maintain sufficient capital to carry out their operations.


Barron's Data -- Sharefin, 07:11:47 03/21/02 Thu

Barron's Charts updated


Don't miss this one -- Prometheus, 11:30:50 03/20/02 Wed

Over at Gold Eagle, (link above) there's a must-read essay by Dr. Antal E. Fekete. Won't try to give you a one-liner description, but I do believe he has solid understanding of the elements in place which are making the financial sector an ever-larger component of the GDP. Eventually, they'll have it all. Up to about a quarter of GDP, now. Tricky, and some of the steps were previously "behind the curtain", at least to my feeble eyes.


Accounting for Silver -- Giovanni Dioro, 07:02:23 03/20/02 Wed

I still have a lingering doubt about this accounting for silver at Berkshire Hathaway. My problem is whether Silver is accounted for differently if it sits in storage or if it is leased out.

Notably if it sits in storage, could it be classified as "inventory"? On the other hand if it is leased out for interest (who said precious metals don't pay interest?), then it is recorded as "other investments".

Specifically, there have been rumours that Buffett's silver was leased to Enron with a 3rd party guarantee. Enron sold the silver to finance its activities, went broke, and Buffett went running to the 3rd party (investment bank) reclaiming his silver, so the rumour goes. The 3rd party allegedly scrambled to buy and borrow silver in the market which led to the sky-high lease rates we saw last December.

Therefore if silver sitting in the vault is accounted for as inventory, it would lend credence to the enron rumour above.


Buffett, Silver, & the Balance Sheet -- Giovanni Dioro, 06:39:16 03/20/02 Wed

In my earlier post that remarked on the jump in inventories at Berkshire Hathaway possibly having something to do with silver. I have to take back this theory as it is probably not likely the case.

I have just found in the annual report that under the category "Other Investments", included are investments in commodities, limited partnerships and warrants, which are carriedat fair value in the accompanying Consolidated Balance Sheets.

Thus Silver, being a commodity, is probably included in the Other Investments category.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:15:54 03/19/02 Tue

Curtain comes down on Kebble


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:14:49 03/19/02 Tue

Gold Gains On Declining Yen

"(A major U.S. trading house) were buyers early on and pushed (Apr gold) through $294 but couldn't get it into (buy) stops above there," said Frank McGhee, a dealer at Alliance Financial LLC in Chicago. "When they stopped buying, the market came off. It was supported on all breaks," however.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:13:46 03/19/02 Tue

US remains committed to hedging

South African and Australian gold producers are expected to continue reducing hedging helped by the depreciation in their currencies relative to the US dollar, a development which is making them more profitable. Gold producers in these gold mining centres are also benefiting from the sea-change in gold market fundamentals. But gold producers in the United States are likely to remain committed to hedging. This is according to a report by broker JP Morgan, which was issued today.


Gold -- Sharefin, 18:32:53 03/19/02 Tue

Jan Gold Imports +10.9% From Dec, -41.5% From Yr Ago

U.S. Jan Silver Imports +75.7% From Dec +56.9% From Yr Ago


Gold -- Sharefin, 18:29:29 03/19/02 Tue

Mark Wellesley-Wood: CEO, DRD Interview


Gold -- Sharefin, 18:27:46 03/19/02 Tue

Ashanti reassures investors on debt plan

CSFB spoils Ashanti's party


Gold -- Sharefin, 18:24:13 03/19/02 Tue

Gold major now eyes downstream consolidation


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:58:16 03/19/02 Tue



More Fibo charts


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:55:27 03/19/02 Tue

Taylor On US Economy, Markets & Gold

Gold continued to settle back this week as the manipulators seem to have regained control at least temporarily. Remember that $290 has long been the line in the sand drawn by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, the BIS, Citicorp, The Treasury, and the Fed. In other words, the defendants in Reginald Howe's anti gold price fixing lawsuit which remains an open issue in front of Judge Lindsay in a Boston Federal Court. One would have thought if this lawsuit was as frivolous as the likes of the World Gold Council, Goldfields Mineral Services, CPM group and others have claimed, Judge Lindsay would have found a reason to throw it out of court long ago. The fact is that there are some highly significant Constitutional issues that could impact our freedoms that far transcend the narrower issue of a fixed gold price.

As we closed the books on March 15, 2002, the manipulators have succeeded in pushing the spot price of gold to $289.90. Thus for the first time in quite a few weeks spot gold is now below the 50 day moving average which according to our spread sheet was at $289.94. Spot gold is still above its 200 day moving average which is at $279.10 as of Friday.

We take it as a given that the establishment will pull every trick in the book to continue to slam the gold price. The only question is how much longer can they carry out this dishonest practice? How many more bullets do they have by way of gold reserves with which to sell forward or swap gold to other countries that sell gold. Otherwise, folks might start to worry inflation is on the rise and sell stocks. God forbid gold would give a signal that would make Mr. Greenspan's job of manipulating your behavior more difficult.


Gold -- Sharefin, 17:50:00 03/19/02 Tue

How to Pick A Good Mining Company


Did Buffett increase his Stake in Precious Metals? -- Giovanni Dioro, 08:45:31 03/19/02 Tue

I was reading Buffett's Letter to Shareholders in the latest Berkshire Hathaway annual report. I then tried to look for the silver investment he had.

Now I believe Berkshire has accounted for Silver in the past in the Balance Sheet under "Inventories".

Well during the 2001 year, Inventories INCREASED BY NEARLY BILLION DOLLARS (from 1.275 Billion to 2.213 Billion). This increase may be in respect to an acquisition of a subsidiary that has large inventories, or perhaps Buffett added to his Silver stake.

Berkshire Hathaway Website


Gold -- Sharefin, 05:40:09 03/19/02 Tue

XAU Index

HUI Index


Gold -- Sharefin, 05:17:48 03/19/02 Tue

COMEX gold ends higher, focus on Japan's weak yen

COMEX gold rose on Monday in spillover buying after a sharp fall in the Japanese yen, brought the Japanese investor back into the safety of the precious metal.

``It's not only the Japanese. We're finding very good physical buying all around -- India, the Middle East and so on,'' said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank. ``The physical buyers have become accustomed and accepted the higher prices now.''

``If the Japanese were large buyers of gold as the yen fell in value, then I would believe that prospects are excellent that we will again see a repetition of this event, and perhaps even an acceleration,'' wrote Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in a market report. ``Nothing has substantively changed in the economic fundamentals in Japan.''

Gold prices were little deterred in front of Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting amid predictions that a revived U.S. economy will shift decision makers away from the easing policy that last year helped restore a shine to gold by shrinking the contango and reducing the incentive for producers and speculators to sell.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:59:27 03/18/02 Mon

Gold stocks jump with stronger bullion price

Canadian gold stocks jumped nearly 5 percent on Monday, as bullion surged back up toward the $300 level, while analysts said the current low interest rate environment should sustain recent gold strength.

"Over the long term, there's nothing that's really changed the gold price outlook. It's still a reasonably positive environment for bullion," he added.


Platinum -- Sharefin, 19:52:43 03/18/02 Mon

Platinum on the rise as jewelry metal of choice

Platinum, the purest precious metal, is adorning the hands of more and more brides as it makes a nationwide comeback, prized for its durability, purity and tradition. And local jewelers say they're seeing young couples jumping on the platinum bandwagon, foregoing typical gold rings in favor of this white metal.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:50:59 03/18/02 Mon

Bullish gold market seen undeterred by neutral Fed

Gold prices held firm under $300 an ounce before Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting, looking immune to predictions that a revived U.S. economy will turn decision makers away from the easing policy that helped shore up the underperforming precious metal over the last year.

Indeed, bullion traders on Monday were more focused on the currency markets than on interest rates. Analysts said it might take a long-term upturn in U.S. yields to squelch cautious bullishness about gold and make it attractive for speculators and mining companies to become proactive sellers again.

Gold bullion traded at a two-year high of $307.50 in early February, the apex of a undulating one-year advance that started shortly after the recession-wary U.S. central bank in January 2001 landed the first of 11 easings that brought U.S. interest rates to their lowest in four decades in December.

"Normally shifts from easing to neutral would be negative for gold. I think gold is trading pretty much independently of Fed activity right now," said Refco Inc analyst James Steel.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:28:31 03/18/02 Mon

S Africa AngloGold's Output To Fall To 5.8 Mln Oz In 2002

AngloGold, South Africa's biggest gold producer, expects its output to slip to 5.81 million ounces in 2002 from 6.98 million oz in 2001, it said in its annual report released Monday.


Anglogold -- Sharefin, 19:26:56 03/18/02 Mon

AngloGold reports 13 percent profit rise

AngloGold said Monday its net profit excluding unrealised hedging activities increased by 13 percent to 286 million dollars in 2001.

He said the company projected gold production of 5.8 million ounces at a total cost of 154 dollars an ounce, and a capital expenditure of 268 million dollars for 2002.


Gold -- Sharefin, 19:25:27 03/18/02 Mon

Al Qaeda Seeking To Finance Further Attacks

Al-Qaeda's money is believed to come from various sources: Saudi-born millionaire Osama bin Laden's personal fortune, donations of seemingly legitimate Islamic humanitarian concerns, and gold trading.


From the front page of the Nikkei News -- Sharefin, 19:22:19 03/18/02 Mon

Spooked savers spark modern-day gold rush

A modern-day gold rush is sweeping the nation. But instead of heading for the hills, a number of wealthy individuals are heading for local precious metal retailers to convert piles of cash into gold bars.

As the date nears when the Japanese government ends its full guarantee of bank deposits, gold is regaining its luster in the eyes of the nation's individual investors.

Many wealthy citizens are changing their asset allocations from bank deposits to other investment tools such as gold, and the move has steadily pushed up prices of the metal.

Precious-metal retailers are thrilled by the bullish mood, but caution still prevails, because recent history teaches us that gold booms in Japan end up with individual investors suffering hidden losses.

Osamu Ikeda, chief of the president's office at the nation's largest precious-metal dealer Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK, first noticed the sea change in investors' sentiment last summer, when the bullish buying by individuals started. Since then, Ikeda has seen a growing number of customers coming into its flagship store in Tokyo, and has convinced himself that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to market gold to Japanese consumers.

Customers generally purchase 5-10kg of gold bars, valued at around 7-14 million yen ($54,300 to $108,500), but some have bought as much as 30-40kg of gold. The quantity of gold sold in February at Tanaka's 144 retail stores, including its agent stores nationwide, increased ninefold from the same month last year.

Tanaka Kikinzoku is not alone. Ace Koeki Co., a major commodity futures broker, launched a sales campaign in its 14 stores nationwide for two months through last December, offering discounted commission fees of 5 yen per gram, in order to rekindle consumers' desire for gold. Ace Koeki sold a total of 700kg of gold bullion in the campaign. "We sold around 50kg of physical gold per month last year, so the total amount sold in the campaign jumped sevenfold," said Nobuyuki Kudo, assistant vice president of the general planning department of the company.

Bullish buying boosted gold imports. Statistics released by the Finance Ministry found that gold imports tripled year on year to 8.17 metric tons in January. That figure is up 110% from last December.

The total trading volume of gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) in February posted around 2.87 million shares, up 360.8% from a year earlier. "Some individual investors aggressively participate in the gold-futures market by shifting money from the stock market," said Norihiko Ishikawa, a spokesperson at TOCOM.

Investment demand for gold in Japan has had an impact on the global gold market. "The topping at $300 per troy ounce early in February in the New York market was caused in part by Japan's growing demand for gold. I saw TOCOM prices for gold futures leading the global market for the first time in nearly 10 years," added Ishikawa. For around two years, gold prices on the New York market hovered below $300 per ounce due mainly to sluggish demand. But the bearish market sentiment turned bullish after Sept. 11. "In addition, the Japanese gold boom is playing a major role in pushing up the price of gold even further," said Koichiro Kamei, managing director at Market Strategy Institute.

The price of gold on international markets has been in a downward trend since it reached $850 per troy ounce in 1980. In the meantime, Japan has experienced 10 gold booms, which were mainly sparked by dips in domestic gold prices accelerated by the appreciation of the yen against the dollar, according to gold analysts. But such booms faded soon after the market stablized, leaving individual investors burned.

However, the retailers insist that this time is different. "The current gold boom appeals to people's common sense, and industry people are aware of this," said Itsuo Toshima, regional director of Japan and South Korea at the World Gold Council, the London-based nonprofit association of gold producers worldwide.

He listed four points that characterize the boom: "The boom has been long-lived, lasting more than half a year since last summer. A wide variety of people, of all ages, have played a major role in investment. Buyers want to stock the metal in their homes, rather than keep it in a bank deposit box. And individuals are buying the metal even in an upward trend of the gold market."

Japanese have become more concerned about volatility of the currency and stock markets in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the U.S., the collapse of U.S. energy company Enron and the Argentine government's possible default on its samurai bonds. According to retailers, individual investors think that even if the gold price drops sharply, the value of gold will never disappear completely.

Another factor behind the buying binge is that individuals want to cope with the new bank-deposit rules. From April 1 this year, the government will guarantee a maximum of 10 million yen plus accrued interest on time deposits.

However, asset-management professionals are taking a wait-and-see stance on gold trading. One asset manager at a major Japanese trust bank said: "We recommend that our customers use investment tools such as foreign currency deposits. As precious metals like gold yield no cash flow, we are less interested in precious metals at this point."


From GATA -- Sharefin, 19:15:02 03/18/02 Mon

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed today on Jim Pupalava's "Financial Sense" Internet broadcast program. You can listen to it here:


From GATA -- Sharefin, 19:10:26 03/18/02 Mon

To: Bill
From: Jim

March 17th, 2002

In the midst of the drama of the gold market it is easy to lose focus. Refocusing is as simple as asking us why does the cartel exist that has so affronted the laws of supply and demand? Why has so much effort and capital been put into massaging the chart formations of gold bullion's price? Was it a simple law of nature that put supply into the market recently at $304.60? No, not a chance! It was selling with the clear intention of preventing a close of the gold bullion's price above the key technical level of $305.

Why all this effort? Why all this risk? Why is there a gold cartel in the first place? The answer is not to prevent gold from functioning as a barometer of true inflation thereby affronting the peace of the equity markets. It is not because gold is threatening to replace the dollar as a currency. No it is not because some large speculative short position is protecting itself. No, it is not to protect the gold producers who have used the gold derivatives to hedge Practically ALL NEW Production ten years forward to obtain non recourse borrowing and off balance sheet loan capital. No, it is for a much greater and potentially dangerous reason. The Gold cartel exists because should the gold market move into a bull phase the basic faulty structure of the gold derivative will cause a collapse in the ability of the derivative transaction to be able to function. The size of the gold derivative nominal value outstanding by reporting entities is larger by orders of magnitude than the amount required to hedge all new gold production tens years forward. It is made obvious by simply arithmetic that the gold derivative so called market has found perverse uses that have absolutely nothing to do with gold other than as a mechanism to create loan capital. It is obvious that the gold producer gave birth to a market that has been used in greater volume by non-gold producers. The gold derivative market is truly "Rosemary's Baby" of the "Spawning" gold producers in seduced by almost free money and off balance sheet financing. Did it ever strike anyone that if you can borrow hundreds of millions of dollars at 5/8 of 1% something might be wrong?

The gold Cartel must succeed since if the gold derivative fails which it is destined to do then all other derivative will come under the scrutiny of the public just like Enron and Arthur Andersen have.

Because of this I respectfully request you consider for publication Harry Schultz's recent Letter to the Chairman.

Quoted from the Harry Schultz Letter, HSL 623 10 March 02

"GOLD SHAREHOLDERS: My motivation in pushing gold mine Chairmen to close out their hedges quickly is to help them realize the danger, as follows: A gold bull market (which will ignite on a 2 day close above $305) will later, freakishly & ironically, bust most investors holding gold shares in gold producers who have hedges of any kind. Gold will, IMO, streak first to $354 (that number produced via derivative extrapolation) where all hedged mines will bankrupt & central banks will sell gold, sending it back to $270-$300 (?) scaring out the bulls. But derivative damage will have been so great & mine output slashed, the price will resume its rise (as it did after a 50% fall in 1974-76 from $200 to 100), til it reaches $1450 or better, drawing in the bulk of the public at prices over $354, $629 & 800. Then when every short has covered, who will buy? Nobody, & the fall thereafter will be so violent as to disqualify gold as a reserve asset, for such volatility. There would go our hopes for a return to the Gold Standard. The result could be gold back to $35 in our lifetime. We must prevent that. Read on.

A mega-derivative squeeze is coming from Hung Fat & Dr. No (ie, 1-2 trillionaire Chinese), which will shred the present day gold cartel to confetti. With them will go all the hedged mines. And their shareholders! Currently, U must note the concentrated g old buying on reactions, very different from the past 2 decades. Gold's bull move will help Hung Fat & Dr. No & traders using our new gold chart service (& following it when stakes are high and unrealized). Before Central Banks fight the $305 & $354 levels, gold producers have the greatest (&LAST) opportunity in the corporate lifetimes to "get the hell out" of every hedge position. They risk class action suits & worse if they don't. There is very little time left to do this.

They'll say they can't get out due to bank contracts to hedge their new production during the lifetime of the loan. That's true. SOLUTION during rallies, pay off the development loans by issuing convertible bonds as Agnico Eagle just did, thus financing their development debt in a traditional way.


GOLDSHAREHOLDERS should send the letter below to the chairman of every gold mine that hedges its gold production forward, in which U own stock. A Chairman is legally responsible to shareholders for managing his management. After receiving this letter the board chairman can never claim to not have known that derivatives carried extreme legal and structural risks. This letter may end derivative hedge book trading in the manner used today. U can print this out from email or ask us to send U a fax copy or photocopy this letter and recopy. Add you name.

We seek to protect the hedging mines against themselves thereby protecting their shareholders, which are our collective selves. We also recognize an obligation to certain developing nations, giving them the opportunity to mine gold, thus protecting them. The ultimate Murphy's Law is to have a gold bull market break the producers (via derivatives) & thereby break the gold bulls. World monetary stability is also involved, about which more another day. Here's the letter:

Dear Mr. Chairman:

In light of the recent accounting & Enron scandals, I require answers to certain questions concerning the condition hedge book as a whole & the specifics of each individual hedge transaction. Your present reporting does not detail these key items that are critical to an investor's ability to calculate the risk factors of investment in your/our company.
1. What percentage of the funds that you have taken into earnings or deferred earnings originating from your hedge transaction in the past five years are free from the necessity of maintaining your present hedge positions?
2. In derivative contracts with derivative dealers does the right of offset exist? That means should the dealer enter insolvency while owing money to us, can we charge that indebtedness against what we may owe the dealer?
3. Have we dealt with a well-known substantive investment or commercial bank, or with a subsidiary of that entity? If the answer is a subsidiary of the investment or commercial bank, in what nation is the subsidiary domiciled? What are the legal/capital/bankruptcy laws of that domicile? This information is necessary to assess real credit risk.
4. Is the subsidiary of the investment or commercial bank entitled to an automatic fund forwarding from the parent to cover the "Trade DEBT" of that subsidiary, if the subsidiary fails? If not, then we would have to cover the failed commitments, as margin calls do not wait for litigation outcome.
5. If we have dealt with a subsidiary of the investment or commercial bank, have you seen the balance sheet of that subsidiary & audited amount of total nominal value of derivatives granted by that entity to others? Without this, no reasonable calculation can be made of our credit risk involved with this dealer.
6. If we have dealt with a substantive investment or commercial bank in hedge derivatives, has the board been appraised of the condition of an audited statement of the nominal value of all derivatives granted by that institution? If we have not, then regardless of the hundreds of millions or billions in capital no meaningful qualification of risk has been made.
7. Can we trade the entire transactions of the hedge book with any dealer we wish or are we obligated to one granting dealer when changes or closure are required or desired? If we can't take our position in totality or leg by leg, to any dealer we have severely limited our liquidity & tied ourselves to the financial condition our counter-party.
8. Assuming we used leased gold contracts as part of our hedging program, do either ourselves or the dealer have the obligation of returning the gold, re-leasing the gold or replacing the gold at the end of the standard term of lease (which is 1 year) required by all central banks? Does the Board realize: no matter what our contract says with the gold bank, the leased gold needs to be re-leased, replaced or covered at the end of each year regardless of the fact that our hedge position goes out to 10 years forward?
9. Regarding the hedge instrument:
a. Was the trade transacted over the counter or on a listed exchange?
b. Is there a regulatory body presiding over the transaction?
c. Are the prices of these instruments in public record anywhere?
d. Was the price of the instrument determined by computer modeling?
e. Is there an open market for each leg of the hedge transaction?
10. Regarding legal considerations:
a. Are you familiar with the legal precedent set in the early 1990s in the Southern District of Manhattan Federal Court whereby the validity of a derivative transaction is determined by the capitalization of a transaction versus the nominal value of the transaction?
b. Are you familiar with the legal precedent concerning the validity of a commodity transaction being determined by the timely & industry standard execution of a margin call?

I require prompt answers to these questions, as without this knowledge no responsible conclusions can be gained concerning the actual risk our company has, regardless of our company's position in the industry or the size of your treasury. If you have not reviewed all the criteria of the individual hedge contr acts, dealer's stability by documentation & freedom to deal for closure by individual leg or by total spread position with any dealer of your choice, I would feel you are not fulfilling your duty to us,

Sincerely yours,


Gold & XAU -- Cobra, 06:38:16 03/18/02 Mon

Friday's close for both Gold and the XAU was Ex-actly on
the 55 day moving average's. This looks to be an ideal time to enter long positions. They both have held well above the peak of wave one too. Very nice ABC's are in place on the charts also.


Lenny's Daily Commentary -- Sharefin, 03:46:18 03/18/02 Mon

GENERAL COMMENTS

The predominant influence on the precious metals last week was strongly Yen related. As the Yen rose in value, the market saw significant selling of gold, perhaps as much as 190 tons, as Japanese investors shed holdings originally purchased as a currency "hedge" (as gold is universally priced in USD), and reentered other traditional markets.

While last week saw substantial rallies in the Yen and in their equity markets, I would guess that it will not last too long. Physical gold demand (as opposed to "paper gold" demand on Tocom) is climbing, with totals in perhaps the 20-ton range for February of this year. To quote Mr. Paul Macarounis of NM Rothschild Australia, "The Japanese want something physical to put their money in. The reasons for buying gold are not going to go away in a hurry".

-------
It seems the Japanese trade paper gold as readily as their markets fall & rise.
But when they buy physical it's to hoard away.
Two seperate mindsets dictated to for far differing reasons.


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:42:53 03/18/02 Mon

Top Gold Miner Hopes Bank Agreement Will Continue

The South African based mining group Gold Fields Ltd said today that it is hopeful that the 1999 agreement limiting sales of gold by Europe's largest central banks will be renewed.
The five year agreement, signed in Washington 29 months ago by fifteen central banks, limits gold sales to 400 tonnes a year and caps gold borrowings at 1999 levels until 2004. The pact has been credited with helping stem a flood of bullion into world markets. After the agreement was made public, gold rocketed, if only briefly.
"We have not heard anything other than that they would renew some form of the Washington agreement, Gold Fields chief executive officer Ian Cockerill said.
Gold Fields is South Africa's second largest gold producer, mining 4.5 million ounces a year. Cockerill said it was not in the best interest of the banks to see gold prices collapse.
"Their indications to us are that they would like to see a price and they would like to see the producers supporting their product," Cockerill told a media briefing.
Analysts have said expiration of the agreement could lead to a wave of gold hitting world markets.


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:39:41 03/18/02 Mon

Gold Mining Consolidation Loses Sparkle

South Africa's Gold Fields said today that the recent bidding frenzy for Australia's Normandy Mining may slow the pace of industry consolidation as potential suitors look harder at the real value of assets.
The US$2 billion plus paid for Normandy in February by Newmont, outbidding AngloGold, was expected to spark a rush on gold miners seeking dramatic increases in mine yields via acquisitions.
The three month bidding war catapulted Normandy shares above A$2 each -- nearly double the price when AngloGold launched the first offer.
Now, said Gold Fields chief executive Ian Cockerill, some mining companies have unrealistic expectations of what their assets are worth, given Normandy's final price tag. "Newmont's acquisition of Normandy has allowed prices to run ahead of themselves somewhat," Cockerill told a media briefing. "Where six months ago, we thought there was very good value for money in Australia, it's become a lot more aggressive in price now," he said


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:38:26 03/18/02 Mon

Australian Gold Cos Not Cheap

Australian gold companies are no longer cheap after U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp.'s (NEM) takeover of the country's largest gold miner, Normandy Mining Ltd. (A.NDY), Cockerill indicated.

"Australia is probably price wise, a bit high-priced," after the Normandy acquisition dramatically raised gold companies' expectations of prices for their assets, he said.


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:37:09 03/18/02 Mon

Gold Up On Demand, Stronger USD/JPY

Spot gold was slightly higher Monday in Asia, again aided by a stronger U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen and by physical demand which buoyed support at $290 a troy ounce, traders said.

At 0612 GMT Monday, the U.S. dollar was stronger against the Japanese yen at Y129.85, compared with Y129.13 in New York Friday.

A stronger dollar against the yen has in recent months boosted gold prices, as that usually prompts Japanese investors to buy gold to hedge against any further declines in the yen, given the backdrop of a weak economy.

Also boosting gold prices Monday is physical demand from Singapore, Hong Kong and possibly China once it dips below $290/oz, traders said.

"It (gold) tested the $289/oz support twice but physical demand still prevails," said a Sydney-based bullion trader.

"Daily studies remain positive, and the recent gains assert that a new low under $288/oz will probably not be seen ahead of a test of $299-$300/oz resistance," it said.


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:30:45 03/18/02 Mon

Mining trust buys into gold

Merrill Lynch World Mining Trust (LSE:MLW) has been aggressively building up its gold holdings, a move that has included, among other things, buying US$2.74 million-worth of the Bank of England's bullion.
"Gold is looking more interesting than it has been for a very long time," Graham Birch, the investment manager, pointed out when Miningweb discussed the Trust's performance ahead of its annual meeting on March 27. "There are now some hints of investment interest appearing - and it's investment demand that powers bull markets for gold."

By the end of last year the Trust, which has a market value of about £200 million, had boosted gold's share of the portfolio to 25 percent of the net asset value, Birch reveals in his annual report. That compares with 16 percent of NAV at the end of 2000.


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:28:46 03/18/02 Mon

Reuters Poll of analysts' Gold price forecasts for 2002 & 2003


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:26:33 03/18/02 Mon

A surprise gold rush

Gold pierced $300 an ounce a couple of weeks ago, the first such occasion since late in 1999. Why would an asset known as an inflation hedge rise in an economic climate in which inflation is close to multi-decade lows and the dollar, the currency in which precious metals are denominated, is trading near multi-year highs?
.
The common answer from analysts is "uncertainty." James Stack, editor of the American investment newsletter InvesTech Market Analyst, suggested another reason: Blame it on Japan - specifically the decision by its government to curtail the amount held in bank deposits that is protected from loss.
.
"The dubious decision to cap bank deposit insurance has savers snapping up the precious yellow stuff," he said.
.
Whatever uncertainty is burdening the rest of the world, there is more of it in Japan, where the economy has been in recession for more than a decade and the banking system, as a result, is extremely feeble.
.
Japan is not the only reason for the rally in gold, just a key one, Stack said.
.
"It's the old, classic supply/demand imbalance in a very inelastic commodity," he said. "Central bank sales have slowed and mining mergers have reduced forward sales from production."


Gold -- Sharefin, 03:24:39 03/18/02 Mon

Fund Manager bulllish on Gold (from Barrons)

I believe gold is in a secular bull market. But you are going to have a lot of volatility. Gold had been an awful area for 20 years because there was a secular bull market for financial assets. Yet looking at supply-demand, there has been a negative situation for eight or nine years. Mine production was growing very slowly and demand was outstripping the supply. It was masked by the industry's forward-selling programs and central-bank selling. There is a favorable primary production profile. What gives me the most optimism is the Japanese public buying gold. The country is lowering its guarantee on savings deposits, so people are moving into gold. Japan has imported a lot of gold over the last six or eight weeks. When people get worried about the financial system, they buy gold.


Thaigold -- Sharefin, 03:19:05 03/18/02 Mon

I'll edit the link in next to the tick-by-tick charts.
That'll save you reposting it all the time.

Thanks kindly.........


@ Nick... @ Dave... TA Charts -- ThaiGold, 01:57:08 03/18/02 Mon

That's fine Nick. I'll try to stop by and post only the link
instead.

Dave: Look for this instead of the TA Charts in the Forum
or just bookmark it now:

http://OS2Eagle.Net/thai-ta.htm


GATA -- Sharefin, 00:08:14 03/18/02 Mon

The King Doesn’t Like Gold, Never Has, Never Will - Unlike Mr. Chang


TA by ThaiGold -- Dave, 00:02:53 03/18/02 Mon

Thai, please do continue to post your TA charts. They are a tantalyzing hint of future spot action and I appreciate having them available on this forum. It saves time also, since I don't need to browse back and forth.


Thai -- Sharefin, 23:55:58 03/17/02 Sun

Just a link would be good.

I had some charts linked into this page but it slows down the load times.
Post those images daily and this forum wouldn't load after a week.


TTA: COMEX TA Page Updated... -- ThaiGold, 21:41:38 03/17/02 Sun

Hello Nick...
Let me know if this is of interest to your Forum readers.
I can post it daily if you like, or they can just goto the link.

TA: Comex Silver:
Current FOREX Ag:
Current SPOT Ag:
TA: Comex Gold:
Current FOREX Au:
Current SPOT Au:

Posted for TA educational purposes only. No advice. FWIW. imho only.
*** BookMark HERE ThaiGold's TA WebPage ***



Dr. John Coleman Reiterates Buy Recommendation on Silver -- Giovanni Dioro, 06:36:00 03/16/02 Sat

In Dr. John Coleman's recent newsletter World in Review, he strongly urges his readers "to BUY SILVER BULLION COINS NOW WHILE IT IS STRILL POSSIBLE."

The former British Intelligence agent says that the dollar will be under pressure with the introduction of the Euro and says, "We very much believe that there is no substitute for individuals to protect themselves than by holding silver and gold, in that order."

He says that the Muslims know this and have the 3.0 gram Silver Dirham and the 4.3 gram Gold Dinar, and that if the arab world got their act together and sold their oil in exchange for only gold or silver they would put the US economy and its currency in serious crisis.

Coleman then questions the possibility that the US may plan a war against Irak and then go after all muslim oil-producing states to head off such a crisis, and he adds that "while it sounds like a wild and far-fetched idea, stranger things have happened.

World in Review first strongly advised buying silver last Spring with Silver wallowing around the $4.10 - $4.20 range, now he reiterates his recommendation in the latest issue of his newsletter World in Review.

He writes, "Thus, WIR (World In Review) once again urges its readers to BUY SILVER BULLION COINS NOW WHILE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE. Why do we say this? Because silver is under unremitting attack by the same forces that have been attacking gold for decades, shorting the market with unlimited printing press fiat dollars backed by the "folly" of owning silver and ridicule heaped upon ridicule. What is the outcome? The above ground supply of silver is almost exhausted and the articially rigged low price guarantees that known untapped deposits will not be mined. The increasing shortage of silver points to a BULL MARKET IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE.

"Our opinion is that it wouold be folly to have large holdings denominated in the number one fiat currency of the world (USD), and only something a little less than folly to hold assets in the number two fiat currency of the world, the Euro.

"We say this of the euro because its notes cannot be redeemed for gold any more than the dollar can be redeemed for gold. That is the bottom line for the euro. It does not measure up to its gold promises advertising. Thus, it will eventually go the way of the dollar, but not in the near or mid-term.

"The Muslim world is waking up to the reality of their position and if their muhabar banking system and gold and silver as mediums of exchange catches on, it will spell big problems for the economies of Western nations. Perhaps the United States already knows this which may account for its failure to adopt a more even-handed policy toward Middle East countries."


Dr. John Coleman is a former British intelligence agent who publishes World in Review, which is an in-depth newsletter which covers behind the scenes news and commentary on the world's events. It is published every 2 months.

Subscriptions are $65/yr US, $75 for Mexico & Canada, $95 outside of North America.

WIR
2533 North Carson St.
Suite J-118
Carson City, Nevada 89706

1-800-942-0821


XGO Analysis -- Sharefin, 20:27:53 03/15/02 Fri

Some Sectors To Watch

AUSTRALIAN GOLD INDEX (XGO)
The gold sector has been one of the most exciting performers in recent months. Having already recorded a large move higher the question remains whether there is more to come. If this is the case then it also points to the idea that the end is nigh for the current stockmarket upcycle since gold is traditionally a late rallier into the end of the cycle. The monthly Gold Index chart goes back to 1985. Note the highlighted area at on the chart that preceded the 1987 rally. Following this massive upswing there has never been another time when the Index looked so promising until in recent years. After hitting a low of 654 in May 2000, the Gold Index started to bottom. I year later it broker the upper range of the bottoming pattern and started to climb. A spike top at 900 was followed by three months of correction until the uptrend swung into action again. The recent high at 1314 saw the later stages of the rally go near vertical, suggesting a correction is in store. It is possible for XGO to come all the way back to the 905 and still be in an uptrend. This level is not only old resistance but also happens to coincide with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from all-time lows to the 1314 highs. However if you check the rally that lead to the 1987 crash you can see that the price action was breathless in its upside speed. The nature of the gold sector is that the upswings can be massive and unchecked. Even in light of the 1993 rally for this index, the current uptrend looks meek. If we are heading towards an end to the current stockmarket bull market, then a fast and furious run in this index would be a case of history repeating itself and should not come as a surprise.

XGO Index


XAU/HUI -- Cyclist, 12:00:44 03/15/02 Fri

supportlines crumbling,move next week down to 57/73 support


Marc Faber looks at gold again -- Prometheus, 11:33:21 03/15/02 Fri

His analysis is remarkable, possibly because he looks from afar (Hong Kong) and analyses our markets without being infected by the