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THE GOLDEN POT gold news & views - charts & more not so much a forum but rather a news archive

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Charts Online -- Sharefin, 20:43:02 06/02/02 Sun

Gold ratios

XAU/GOLD Ratio

Dow/Gold Ratio

US Dollar/Gold Ratio

Gold Ratios

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Charts Online -- Sharefin, 20:38:11 06/02/02 Sun

Gold is breaking out in many currencies across the globe (silver also).

There have been many stories in the press of late how the falling US Dollar is making gold cheaper in Overseas currencies.
Look at the charts here and you will find the opposite to be true.

Global Gold Currencies

Global Silver Currencies

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Charts Online -- Sharefin, 20:34:53 06/02/02 Sun

Open Interest & Volumes soaring.

Gold Open Interest & Vols

Silver Open Interest & Vols

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Charts Online -- Sharefin, 20:33:16 06/02/02 Sun

Of note is the moves/extensions in the COTs.
This move is building up bigtime for a major shakeout.

Gold COTs

Silver COTs

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Charts Online -- Sharefin, 20:31:38 06/02/02 Sun

Many major moves in the charts over the last week and a lot of the charts are worth looking at.

There's looks to be a phase of volatility entering the markets and hence I would expect lots more major changes going forwards.

Global Sharemarkets look poised to fall downhill.
The Asian sector has topped out on their cycle highs and look ready to sell off.
Coupled with a similar effect throughout Europe and the US this looks like the period going forwards will be very negative.
This period looks similar to the August/September phase last year where markets were plummeting priot to the 9-11 attack.

And to top it off the are warning America to expect another attack of similar or greater magnitude than 9-11.

Global Sharemarket Indices

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Auspec -- Sharefin, 20:18:40 06/02/02 Sun

Who's holding the gold????

And to add insult to injury shift another 15,000 tons from the CBs ledger to the public ledger.

Public holdings dwarf CBs/BBs as far as the real physical goes - paper gold is not counted here.

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An Open Letter to the Fed -- auspec, 14:02:11 06/02/02 Sun

An Open Letter to the FED

Dear Mr. Alan,

This letter is being written in concern to your fiduciary responsibilities with the gold reserves of the U.S.A. First of all, may I commend you on your knowledge and care of these precious entities, they are undoubtedly in the best hands you could possibly find!

As a concerned citizen I must alert you to some of the ongoing rumors and I'm absolutely positive that's all they are, in regards to the integrity of our nation's gold supply. You likely don't spend much time on various hard money internet chat sites, much more important matters at hand, but I must tell you there are some real squirrels out there and they are making the most outlandish claims imaginable regarding the US Treasury and gold. Please pardon me for even mentioning this in your presence, but some of these clowns are wildly stating that the US gold supply is NOT fully intact. I got pretty upset at their frothing, to the point of not even being able to discern exactly how{e} much gold they even believe to be temporarily displaced. We're likely only talking about a couple hundred ounces here out of over 8,000 tons, but I do know how{e} seriously you take your responsibilities and thought you should be made aware. If you were loose and free with our country's {and the world's} finances one would surely hear derogatory nicknames for you such as 'Easy Al', 'Mr. Magoo', or other such tomfoolery.

I have read many of your 1960's essays on the critical importance of gold as a monetary asset and I know fool well that the man that wrote those masterpieces would not be able to sleep if anything were amiss with our nation's booty. Clinton was also pretty good at minding our country's booty so unless Dubya has slipped up we should be pretty centered. Few know, understand, and care about gold issues like whoever wrote those 1960 pieces. I also well remember how{e} most of this gold was acquired during the booming 1930's when the US citizens were greatly in need of tax deductions and poured out their gold unto our nation's treasury for safe-keeping as well as deductibility. We have all heard of the physical properties of malleability and deductability with both silver and gold, but I digress, sorry. Anyway, Mr. Roosevelt initiated this chain of responsibility that has now led into your more than capable hands. I think President Roosevelt, you, and President Nixon have done more to insure our nation's financial integrity than the rest of our great leaders combined! FDR had the insight to bring the nation's gold into central care, RMN was able to keep it away from foreign mongrels, and you, Sir Alan, have kept it at least 99.99999999% pure and secured for all my/our future progeny/taxpayers. I'm sure the historians will be able to place Mr. Clinton into this esteemed clique before the next texts come out, but we'll have to wait for that, won't we? Any truth to the rumor that the mill-house in Nixon had anything to do with his private hoard of precious? Sorry, it's those chat sites that seem to be influencing me, I'm trying to cut down. They obviously serve some purpose, however, or this letter from a very, very slightly, itsy-bitsy concerned citizen wouldn't be forthcoming.

I have digressed again, sorry. As I was saying, these outlandish claims are being made in regards to your beyond-reproach care of our nation's gold cache. Let's discount the rumors right off the top and diss the high end of their claims. If anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, it is you and Larry, o wise ones. So, we're talking considerably less than 200 ounces of gold and probably more than 1 ounce of gold that might possibly have been temporarily misplaced. That is not really a lot of gold, but knowing your conscientious and independent care for this country, it is not to be lightly dismissed either. Have any of these concerns come up in your various Swizz board meetings? I bet some heads are going to roll now if there is an inkle of truth to what I am reporting to you! I promise to continue to monitor these terrorist financial sites and keep you fooly appraised of any more devious proclamations that are found. Are there yet financial rewards for turning in this sort of scum? Not that I would accept it, receiving a response from you or even a southern directed sneeze would more than suffice. I most definitely wouldn't expect to be paid in gold, our treasury not to be compromised.

Where was I? Oh yes, the story goes that some of these puny ounces {probably the most tarnished ones knowing your sterling reputation}, have theoretically ended up being loaned to some of our nation's finest institutions, bankers from what I remember, bullion bankers to be more specific. I certainly don't get it, if one cannot lend a few measly ounces of gold to a BULLION BANK, exactly who would be more qualified to borrow bullion??? I will attempt to splain everything to these various sites {if Homeland security hasn't pulled their franchises yet, heehee} once you and I get to the bottom of this mystery. A copy of this letter is also going to this security agency, any truth to the rumor that they will retroactively pay for information of such sensitive nature? Curiosity only.

You should also be made aware that many traitorous individuals on these sites are denigrating your well crafted, and beautiful I might add, Federal reserve Notes. Such foolishness is beyond the pale. I have yet to meet the person who is not falling all over themselves and most everyone else around, trying to amass a sizeable amount of these legal tenders. When is the last time you walked into a McDonald's or a Chick-Filet and asked for some chicken 'golds', get my drift? There can be absolutely NO doubt that your handiwork has practically repealed the laws of supply and demand with these beauties. Our monetary supremacy, due to your artwork, expands the globe. We crank em, you bank em. What could be more American than that?

By now you are likely bored beyond tears from reading of such claims of gold misplacement, and have every right to be indignant. Let me wrap it up now so you can straighten out this whole mess next week. There could be no way that you would even know who these various 'bullion banks' are as all of your work is certainly done at 'arms length', or at least 'organ' length, so I suggest you get someone to find out exactly who may be involved here and simply ask them to return the few ounces involved. No harm, no foul, depositories back 110% intact. What could be simpler than that?

Thank you for your consideration, Sir! Your place in history is most assured, America first, last and always.

A simple unconcerned citizen,


auspec

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:20:00 06/02/02 Sun

Gold regains its shine as a safe haven in unstable times

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:11:20 06/02/02 Sun

Business of gold booming, especially in Asian nations

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Lenny's Commentary -- Sharefin, 08:09:15 06/02/02 Sun

GENERAL COMMENTS

Another week passes and the bull market in the gold and silver markets continues unabated. For the week, gold was up another $6 or so, sneering at its many detractors who continue their skepticism, while silver rose by 17 cents, vaulting the $5 price level for the first time since early 2001. Platinum also enjoyed a rally of over $8 per ounce.

The gold and silver markets have truly now come into their own, and are moving higher irrespective of external influences and, in my opinion, are now quite momentum driven. They have rallied when the USD has been going up and they have rallied when the USD have been falling. The various churnings of the stock market seem to have little import. Certainly, the market is very aware, and very scared, of a possible war in Asia and we have seen demand rise due to this, and other, influences. But, at the end of the day, it is the investor and speculator who continue to buy and push price levels higher, day after day. In my opinion, I still see a very blue sky ahead with little difficulties.

The risk of sharply lower gold prices is much mitigated by the actions of the gold producers, who are either repurchasing their previously sold forward contracts or who are refusing to sell any more forward. This is providing a comfortable "floor" for gold and all dips in the market seem to be well supported. Please remember that an ounce of gold sold by a gold producer can only be sold once at the end of the day, and the recent lows for the price of gold were most assuredly created by the profligate selling of gold by gold producers in a market environment where demand was rather weak and investor interest flagging. Market supply was sharply accelerated in time by such actions, and now the piper must be paid. At this time, when prices are rallying due to many supportive economic and political factors, many years of production HAS already been sold and can not enter the current market to take advantage of the current price. Supply was accelerated in the past and now cannot match the new demand.

Barclay's Capital, who has been quite bearish and quite wrong on the future for gold for months now, has again come out with new admonishments and cautions. They claim that a "return to $290-$300 per ounce could be no more than a burst away". I must honestly admit that their logic seems eminently flawed as they contend that the delivery of gold by producers into their forward contracts, and buybacks of such gold without new replacement sales must be totally offset against "massive falls in demand from consumers" (emphasis added). Sorry, guys, but I just don't see such a net reduction in demand. Perhaps you might want to look at open interest on the exchange in New York, where over 190,000 contracts are now outstanding, up almost 80% from late last year. Last I checked, an increase of 80,000 to 90,000 contracts equates to over 250 tons of demand, and that is in just one marketplace in the world. While jewelry demand was actually higher in 2001 than in 2000, I will admit that it is likely to fall in 2002 due to the sharp rise in price and the rather weak global economic environment. But, I believe that investor and speculative interest far outweighs such a potential decline.

Several weeks ago, J.P. Morgan Chase told its clients to exit the gold market at about the $305 price level, now it seems that they are singing a different tune quite soon thereafter. To quote "We believe that there is significantly more upside opportunity than downside risk in the gold price in the medium term...". Such actions are praiseworthy; there is nothing wrong with changing your mind. To quote a most important trading aphorism, there is no shame in being wrong, just in staying wrong.

Imports of gold into India are now falling like a bowling ball rolling off a table. Traders report that only 1000 to 1500 bars are being demanded, down from some 5000 bars last week. While some might imagine that this statistic demonstrates a complete withdrawal of interest in gold, there is more to this than meets the eye. Please realize that this statistic relates strictly and solely to IMPORTS into India, not the level of real demand. Think about it. With saber rattling and tensions high in the region, is it not incredibly likely that gold is indeed being bought, and in size, for storage outside India? If a war does indeed occur, I am confident that Indian citizens would greatly desire gold in either London or New York, not in their native land. Anecdotal evidence and conversations with other traders relates to such activities. So, India and Pakistan are probably a source of greater demand at present, not of lessening demand.

Just as an aside, Mr. Ross Norman, of thebulliondesk.com, now estimates that the sale of 395 tons of gold by the British Treasury has cost the nation 500 Million Pound Sterling. Not only did the Treasury sell their gold at the bottom of the market in a method assured to obtain the worst possible price, but the proceeds of this sale were placed mainly in USD, which has subsequently declined. There are many who believe that Central Banks will soon be sellers of gold as prices rally, but I have to believe that they will be forewarned by the embarrassment of the Brits, and will not be so quick to pull the trigger and sell off their national reserves. If one investigates the sales of gold by governmental institutions, one quickly sees that they tend to be sellers at the bottom, and tend to withhold such sales when gold prices are rising.

Silver now has risen over 20 cents from its "breakout" point of $4.80, a formerly massive technical resistance level. We are now over $5.00 and I am targeting an eventual price of about $5.40 to $5.50. This price increase will be based on technical and momentum criteria rather than a substantive shift in the market fundamentals. Which is not to say that the fundamentals are not improving, they are. By the way, silver output in Mexico, the world's largest producer, was down 6.4% in March compared with a year ago.

Another bullish influence on the gold price could be continuing strikes by the National Union of Mineworkers in South Africa. Harmony, a major gold producer, has already seen such work stoppages and a NUM spokesman suggested that actions could be extended to other "cash-flush" mines.

OK. Time for a warning. London is out on holiday for Monday and Tuesday. With the major center for physical trading out, volatility could really increase in the next two days. I would expect some wild and vicious swings as highly leveraged traders move this market around.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:07:21 06/02/02 Sun

Investors turning to gold during tense times

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:00:23 06/02/02 Sun

Money in Court: Paving the Road to Ruin

Presentation on Thursday, May 23, 2002, to a seminar at the Grocers Hall, London, organized by the Association of Mining Analysts and sponsored by Durban Roodepoort Deep on Prospects for Gold - A new era or more toil ahead?

Where does that leave us? What's ahead? Three observations:

Power of the Internet. First, although the case was dismissed, the point was made. Even without pre-trial discovery under court procedures, the GATA army has produced ample evidence. It may never be presented in court, but much of it has been presented on the Internet. Facts speak for themselves. The allegations of the complaint are widely accepted because all the assembled evidence permits no other reasonable conclusion. We may never know all the details, but we do know to a virtual certainty that gold prices have been officially suppressed in a major way since sometime beginning around 1995. What's more, they have been rising steadily since the judge's March 26 decision, hardly a vote of no confidence in the truth of the basic allegations.

Power of Gold. Second, if gold were not permanent, natural money, I would have had antitrust standing just like the copper users and the soybean farmers did. What's more, if gold were the barbarous monetary relic that many like to claim, the G-10 central bankers would not have been so interested in rigging the gold market. Nor would they have tried to have their cake and eat it too by leasing huge amounts of gold for sale into the market rather than selling it outright.

Power of the Constitution. Third, the American Constitution is neither a technical legal document nor simply a declaration of rights. It is a plan of government. But it is not self-executing. Its power rests on the fidelity of the governed to the plan and to the wisdom that it embodies. The proof of Gladstone's statement lies in the results, which have been pretty good when the Constitution is followed, as happens most of the time, but not so good on the few occasions when it has been seriously violated.

The nation's greatest constitutional convulsion -- the battle over slavery -- came in the one area where the plan could not be perfected at the time of its adoption due to irreconcilable sectional differences. More recently, the Vietnam experience demonstrated the folly of sending an army of half a million men, mostly draftees, to fight on the other side of the world without obtaining at least the practical equivalent of what the Constitution expressly requires: a declaration of war by Congress.

At its most fundamental level, the Constitution provides for three branches of government -- legislative, executive, and judicial -- not four. It does not confer a separate banking power -- and certainly not the power to issue unlimited amounts of paper money -- on an independent central bank, let alone one that is effectively exempt from any serious judicial review. Yet in the real world, that is what exists today.

The road ahead is the road we are on -- a road paved by the courts and already taken too far. It is, and it has always been, the royal road to ruin: the well-worn path which, as the framers of the Constitution knew from both history and personal experience, is traveled by all who chose government paper over gold or silver as their standard of value.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:53:34 06/02/02 Sun

Barclays Capital Fears Gold's Bubble May Burst, Price Drop


-- Says Safe-Haven Buying "Misleading"
-- U.S. Dollar Weakness Already Factored Into Price
-- Higher Prices Will Choke Off Consumer Demand - Negate Impact Of Producer Buybacks


"Safe haven? Gold prices are riding on a micro-economic, frothy bubble which is at risk of bursting. They reflect producer maneuvers, are far from safe at current levels and we do not believe they represent a sound conduit for investors here," Barclays said. "When the sums are done the net change in fundamentals could amount to zero and the return towards $290-300 per ounce could be no more than a burst away."

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:50:44 06/02/02 Sun

After the Gold Rush

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:48:01 06/02/02 Sun

The Top Ten Reasons to Invest in Gold

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Gold -- Sharefin, 03:06:41 06/02/02 Sun

Gold dealers doing big business

"The world has changed," said George Cooper of Centennial Precious Metals, a Denver-based company with dozens of customers in the Twin Cities.

"I get calls from New York City, and they wouldn't have talked to me two years ago to save my life. They believed in Wall Street, and now they're basically running scared. Greed feeds the stock market, fear feeds the gold market."

Jim Cook, president of Investment Rarities, a Bloomington-based precious metals company that specializes in gold bullion, said investors are looking for other places to stash their cash.

During the past two weeks, he said, gold sales at his store are up about 500 percent. People are buying bullion in addition to Krugerrands, Canadian Maple Leafs and other gold coins.

Bill Himmelwright of Premium Quality Coin in downtown Minneapolis said that not only is he seeing a 30 to 40 percent increase in the number of customers in his store, people are buying more. The average customer is spending $4,000 to $6,000, compared with $500 to $800 in the past.

Cooper, who normally can all but close up shop in the summer but is now thinking about hiring sales help, is much more optimistic. He thinks that by year's end the price of gold will go up at least a $100 an ounce or more.

"I can hear the fear in their voice that all is not well," he said. "It's nervous buying, driven by fear. People are looking for safety and security, and that's what gold provides."

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Gold -- Sharefin, 02:54:26 06/02/02 Sun

Gold guru sees price above $1,000 ounce

Veteran gold bug Jim Dines says he was once called "a moron" by U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan for predicting that gold would break out above $35 (U.S.) an ounce -- now he's calling for $1,000.
Mr. Dines, who publishes The Dines Letter and prides himself on being ahead of the pack, said he turned bullish on the yellow metal two years ago just before the collapse of the tech-stock bubble and long before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

At that time he advised his subscribers to switch out of dot-com stocks and into gold and other precious metals such as platinum and palladium.

"We are in the very earliest stages of one of the great [gold market] booms that I think is going to be bigger than the Internet," he said.

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Fiat -- Sharefin, 02:35:25 06/02/02 Sun

As dollar drops, economists worry

A recent decline in the value of the dollar has raised alarm bells among some economists, who fear it might signal the beginning of a steep slide that could put the nascent U.S. recovery in jeopardy.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 02:29:15 06/02/02 Sun

Gold Investing 101

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Robert Chapman - Gold Commentary -- Sharefin, 02:21:43 06/02/02 Sun

GOLD & SILVER POTPOURRI

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:08:03 05/31/02 Fri

Stockbrokers Williams De Broe Takes A Close Look At African Gold Producers

Martin Potts clearly does not subscribe to this theory as he has put a BUY note against Ashanti, Durban Deep, Gold Fields and Harmony. Only Anglogold gets a HOLD and this is in part due to its continuing hedge book and in part to its lack of perceived strategy after failing to acquire Normandy. The hedge book, which was put in place to safeguard the revenue stream , now shows a mark-to-market loss approaching US$500 million which is not chicken feed. It also puts a sheet anchor on performance as much of the gold produced in the last quarter was sold, according to Potts, at well below the spot price.

Williams de Broe, unlike the journalist at the FT, takes the view that gold will continue to trend upwards with an average price of US$330/oz in the second half of this year and US$350 next. In so doing it is by no means the most optimistic of London's brokers and it must be depressing news for Bobby Godsell of Anglogold as he faces the prospect of declining output as well as lack of leverage to the gold price.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 19:34:08 05/31/02 Fri

After The Gold Rush

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Gold -- Sharefin, 19:31:17 05/31/02 Fri

Gold and Economic Freedom

This article originally appeared in a newsletter: The Objectivist published in 1966 and was reprinted in Ayn Rand's Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 19:29:17 05/31/02 Fri

Dollar bears ready for golden day

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Financial Sense -- Sharefin, 19:17:29 05/31/02 Fri

The Sum of My Fears

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Silver -- Sharefin, 09:04:30 05/31/02 Fri

Jiangxi's Silver Deposits Account for 15.2 PCT of China's Total

Ranking first in the country, a 17,000 ton silver deposits in East China's Jiangxi Province, accounts for 15.2 per cent of the country's total.
The province's 5,270.5 tons gold reserve accounts for 12.9 per cent of the country's total, ranking second in the country.

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The numbers above sound a bit high.
They would put China's reserves at 111,842 tons of silver and 40,856 tons of gold.

Perhaps someone's suggested that hey should spin their numbers a bit - do an Enron on the numbers.....

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:53:10 05/31/02 Fri

This post just has to be read to be believed.

It sounds like it was written by a dejected Jennifer Cross now realising what a foolish report she wrote a few years back and wishing she hadn't been short gold these last few months.

It lacks an intelligent appraisal and is so full of vitriol & verbage that one wonders what side of the bed the author got out of that morning and why didn't they find something more interesting to do for the day.

One also wonders why such a bee in the bonnet approach to reporting.

And what's more the point is that the article says it stems from a metals research company.
Obviously they have been researching officialodium for the last few years and have little understand of the precious metals markets.

Anyway on to the funny farm...Enjoy......

Virtual Metals Research and Consulting LTD - Market Commentary

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:39:52 05/31/02 Fri

Early COMEX silver jumps to 18-month high over $5/oz

"Gold's up, so silver's up," said a bullion dealer. "It's poor man's gold."

In electronic trade before the New York open outcry session started, active July silver rose to $5.07, its highest since Dec. 7, 2000. August gold hit a contract high at $330.20, at the same time as spot was fixed in London at its strongest in almost five years.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:37:06 05/31/02 Fri

Harmony blinks first

Harmony Gold has struck an eleventh hour agreement with striking union members at its Kalgold opencast operation which has averted a strike by 20,000 workers at its operations next week.

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Silver -- Sharefin, 08:35:40 05/31/02 Fri

Survey sees strong recovery for silver in 2002

Global demand for silver is expected to recover strongly over the rest of 2002, thanks to the global economic recovery, according to the World Silver Survey 2002, which was released on Thursday.

The current rebound in global GDP growth is already starting to lead to higher demand for a wide range of silver-containing products, the survey found, and for the rest of the year the health of the electronics industry would be a particularly important factor.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:34:24 05/31/02 Fri

Gold Surges To Fresh 26-Mo High At $329.75/Oz

Spot gold climbed to a fresh 26-month high at $329.75 a troy ounce Friday morning as the dollar lost further ground against the euro and tensions between India and Pakistan show signs of increasing.

The approach of the long weekend holiday in the U.K. is expected to keep the upside momentum in the market intact for the remainder of the day despite the fact the market is becoming increasingly overbought with dealers reticent
to leave short positions open ahead of the weekend.

A test of $330/oz resistance looks imminent, a level which if broken would see the market target next resistance at $340/oz.

Gold fixed at $326/oz Thursday afternoon.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:32:24 05/31/02 Fri

Coming tidal wave of gold demand

It's a scenario that's taken time to unfold but is now becoming crystal clear.

At its center are gold and the dollar. The scenario is this: The dollar, the once mighty symbol of American might and global dominance, is no longer perceived internationally as being bulletproof - due largely to America's continuing role as the world's leading debtor nation - and, as a result, dollar-holders are beginning to quietly exchange their positions for gold.

It really is a case of the dollar being at the wrong place at the wrong time. The fact is, our troubled world has never been in greater need of a "bulletproof" currency. With emergency flares shooting up over the planet's No. 2 economy, Japan, with America battling hard at a seemingly everlasting war, with Israel tied in a bloody Gordian knot, and with Latin American nations crying, "Uncle!" the absolute last thing the world needs is a currency that's stumbling. But that's exactly what it's getting in the dollar.

And that is precisely why gold has shot past the $318 mark.

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The peak of a golden year of 2002 as the beginning of war -- Wlavio, 05:01:16 05/31/02 Fri


The main peak shall appear during one and a half decades of July. Follows the smaller jump in September. Though there shall be three of them till the end of a year 2002 and six during a year 2003.

What is going to happen in June, July, August and November?
Gold rush is prolonging in summer and goes high up in winter.

Trifles of July- peace with Russia.
Not the maximal growth of gold and hardly the US dollar will fall 4% more.

Trifles of July- the beginning of what war?
Dollar falls and after that begins the war, simpler than in Asia.

How the war ends?
Like usually- fast capitulation and rise of gold and US dollar.

What will cause gold boom in winter?
Sharing of Asia, its frontiers and "the smoke of September 11th on the horizon."

What kind of a silver boom in 2003?
Who made up the biggest growth in a history of silver?
wlavio@strana.de

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Gold -- Sharefin, 01:07:06 05/31/02 Fri

Looks ready for a major move up.
The intraday oscillations will soon equate with EOD oscillations and we'll be jumping $5-$10-$20 in a day.

The volatility looks ready to explode upwards......

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Gold Vibes -- Sharefin, 01:02:01 05/31/02 Fri

If you're trading this gold market then make sure you listed to Tom O'Brien & Bill Murphy, gold & trading goldstocks et al.

This is the file to download and listen to - it'll only bere here for 24 hrs

The audio file is a transcript from Tom O'Brien at Tiger Financial News Network

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Silver -- Sharefin, 22:51:54 05/30/02 Thu

The Smartest Money

While attending the Chicago Natural Resources Conference, the owner of a well-known precious metals web site introduced himself to me. It was a pleasure to meet him in person and put a face to the name. We discussed the conference and some of the companies that were in attendance. Finally, I popped my favorite question. What do you think about silver? Do you think as I do, that it has even more potential than gold? His reply was both profound and accurate. “David,” he said, "The smart money is moving into gold, but the SMARTEST money is moving into silver!"

Naturally, I would agree with this view, but it did give me pause. Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and George Soros have all staked out a silver claim. Smart money? I would venture most would agree. It has been some time since publishing anything for the public at large. My aim is to provide as much fact as possible to the reader and let each determine individually, how silver stacks up to gold or visa versa.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:40:22 05/30/02 Thu

Gold Part I: Rally Indicative of Optimism?

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Gold Squeeze -- Sharefin, 20:31:45 05/30/02 Thu

The Squeeze On Gold

The price of gold and gold stocks is sky-rocketing with Central banks across the world coming in for severe criticism for the way they have sold official gold reserves, although in a disguised form. Maree Howard writes.
One of the biggest financial scandal stories, on the level of Enron, is about to break.

Central banks are said to have lent their gold for about 1% per annum - the cheapest borrowed money on earth. They have not reported these loans as sales meaning their official gold reserves remain constant. But the leased gold is gone.

It has been borrowed by large trading companies called bullion banks. They borrowed at 1%, sold the gold, took the money they earned by selling the gold and invested it at 5% or more.

It was sweet multi-billion dollar deal. But now they are in a squeeze.

They owe billions of dollars of gold bullion to Central banks but to get it back, they must buy gold bullion in the open market, which is now a rising market.

They are losing money, big time.

What has saved them so far is that the Central banks are not demanding repayment. Meanwhile the public doesn't know that the leased gold is gone. The Central banks do no publish these figures.

Then there are the "direct" sales of gold by the Central banks. The most recent sales were made by the Bank of England. It sold off at least half of its gold reserves over a 3-year period ending in March. The man responsible for the decision to sell the gold is Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. He has now come under fire for having made horrendous investment decisions.

The British Independent newspaper published the story on May 26.

In part that paper says "Gordon Brown has "lost" 400 million pounds by ordering the sale of part of Britain's gold reserves by the Bank of England....."

"Figures obtained by the Independent on Sunday also show that his decision to order the Bank of England to part with some of its gold reserves and switch into Euro and yen was also not a good bet for the taxpayer. The value of gold has soared on world markets as investors have switched to gold."

Of course, major Central bankers have a real problem. When the public learns that the Central bank's gold leasing programme has turned into an unannounced gold sales programme, with the bullion banks in cahoots with the Central banks, and the bullion banks can't repay the central banks, heads are going to roll.

A rising price of gold threatens to bankrupt the bullion banks who dare not go into the market to buy gold for fear if what this will do to increase gold's price.

So it's a waiting game. The bullion banks are hoping the price will go down and so are the Central bankers, But, at some point, the Central bankers will have to demand repayment. At that point the gold leasing game will end.

The bullion banks will go bust, the Central banks won't be repaid and the public will find out - once again - that they might not be able to trust Central banking.

Will gold's price fall back below the bottom of $US256? This now seems highly unlikely given the head of steam under which gold is now rising.

Of course, this all depends on whether Central banks go for one last sell-off to again artificially keep the price down.

With the Federal Reserve system expanding credit money in the U.S. to push down short-term interest rates, and with a recession in capital investing still in force, the question is: Where can I make a better rate of return than in gold?

This year, gold has beaten all other investment categories. Gold investors have to search long and hard to find a better rate of return.

Only if they think the price has peaked would they want to sell. But there is little evidence yet that gold's price has peaked. In fact, the scene looks set for a dramatic price increase.

Even the predictable threat of the Bundesbank in early April to sell gold - no amount specified - in 2004 has had no downward effect on gold's price.

Are investors likely to sell now than in the past? No. Because there are no clear cut alternatives. Not selling, of course, reduces the supply of available gold at any price.

One of the biggest buyers of gold traditionally is the Indian father (Patel not Tonto) who has been in the market for a thousand years buying gold for the daughter’s dowry. Why would he now want to sell traditional gold in order to buy conventional rupee "paper-money” investments in such a war scenario which exists on that sub-continent?

Then there is Japan with its increasing demand for gold. And the Central bank of China has been accumulating more gold in recent months than was believed likely.

So the upward pressure on gold's price seems to be from the supply side - i.e. reduced supplies of ready sellers are leading to higher prices.

Gold mining firms burdened with forward contracts set at a lower price see losses ahead when they have to sell a commodity on the back of rising prices. This is really going to hurt those mines that are loaded up with obligations to sell at a fixed price. They will face a profit squeeze and are less likely to add to their positions of forward sales.

I don't expect a gold-rush on Wall Street. They are too conventional and too closely allied to the highest levels of Central banks and bullion banks. Wall Street is the Establishment. In fact, I expect to see a propaganda campaign to try and take the head of steam out of gold and to prop up their ailing financial system.

There is a long-term re-education process head because gold has been under-attack ever since 1914 when European Central banks ceased to redeem their gold certificates and their Government's authorised this massive confiscation of private wealth. The U.S. joined in but it re-established convertibility after the war ended. Europe didn't, except Britain on 1925, at a pre-war price that could not be maintained without deflation - which the economy got. Britain went off the gold standard in 1931 and the U.S. followed in 1933.

As the truth about the one-way direction of the Central banks' gold leasing programmes becomes clearer to the public and they recognise the statistical fraud - that the gold is gone and won't be coming back - the upward pressure on gold's price will accelerate. The chickens are finally coming home to roost!

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Gold -- Sharefin, 18:15:42 05/30/02 Thu

Gold Mines Exposed as Gold Bull Market Enters Overdrive

--WHY gold will go parabolic
--HOW good gold news will be fatally bad news for many (most?) mines -- as the price rises.
--"Hedges" is the wrong word. They aren’t hedges! A pity.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 18:05:37 05/30/02 Thu

Gold rally a dark omen for bonds

The gold rally isn't only sapping strength from the U.S. dollar, but carries a negative message for the bond market as well, according to analysts at BCA Research in Montreal.

"Rising gold prices warn that U.S. bond yields have further upside," the firm said in a note yesterday. An increase in bond yields would mean a drop in the value of bonds, since yields move inversely with bond prices.

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Email chatter -- Sharefin, 18:02:59 05/30/02 Thu

My favorite movie is Trading Places with Eddie Murphy. The producer of that movie was Aaron Russo,
a veteran Café member. He sends The Café some food for thought:

Dear Bill,
I think it is very important that people realize that the war against gold is more then just a profit
motive by Goldman Sachs, Citicorp, and Morgan Chase although it is that as well..... All these
institutions are major shareholders in the private for profit federal reserve system, and they all have
a common purpose in knocking gold down.

The big picture is they are trying to establish a "cashless society" where all "money" is digitized and
computerized so people will believe they have no need for cash. In their plans cash will become ancient history, therefore the need for debit cards and other devices ( implanted chips ) that allow electronic transfers. In this way all transactions can and will be monitored. However it gets worse and even more treacherous, because they will then have the ability to turn off your debit card or other device at their will if you do not behave as they desire. ( If you ever tried to buy something and your credit card was not working, you know what i am talking about ) If you are an independent thinker and you stand up to the slavemasters you will not be capable of buying food or paying your mortgage. This is the very definition of totalitarianism. We will have the New World Order run by the bankers. Gold is the one thing that stands in their way because it is debt free money not made by their system and that is precisely why it is so important for them to denigrate gold while at the same time controlling the marketplace, and controlling the mines by lending them money and forcing them to sell forward. The common man must never be allowed to think of gold as money but rather as jewelry or an ornament.
That is why the price must not be allowed to rise because that gives gold credibility and allows people to get around institutionalized digitized money. This battle we are undertaking is not about profits on a higher gold price but a war for our very souls, our country, our freedom and a future for free thinking individuals who choose not to live in a world run by banking institutions and the wealthy families who control those institutions.

Unfortunately this is not theory or wild speculation on my part but first hand knowledge. The job you are doing is awe inspiring and you are creating a synergy that gives me hope we can win. I just want everyone to know what is really at stake. god bless.... aaron russo

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Gold -- Sharefin, 17:58:53 05/30/02 Thu

AurionGold open to counter offers

After studying his takeover-target response strategy manual for most of the week, besieged AurionGold chief executive Terry Burgess has emerged from his bunker with a teaser: "We are looking at all the options."

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Gold -- Sharefin, 17:57:12 05/30/02 Thu

Harmony hammered by strike

The threat of a company-wide strike by 20,000 Harmony workers sent the company's shares tumbling by more than 10 percent in morning trade today

--
Harmony blinks first

Harmony Gold has struck an eleventh hour agreement with striking union members at its Kalgold opencast operation which has averted a strike by 20,000 workers at its operations next week.

---
SA golds heading for winter of discontent

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) has planted a seed of disquiet among South Africa's cash-flush gold industry suggesting recent labour action at Harmony Gold could be extended to other producers.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 17:44:01 05/30/02 Thu

Interview with Quinton George on Gata donation

Alec, not that strange. First of all remember, it's actually cost many of those clients R150,000. That's the first thing and, granted, they are controversial, and they've perhaps said things that a lot of people haven't enjoyed. But I think the two most significant things that we value about them is that they believe in emerging markets, they believe in gold as money and not as a commodity, they believe in the people that have suffered through a bear market in resources and particularly gold, and I really value that about Bill Murphy. He has been courageous, he's been outspoken, he's certainly been right for the last twelve months. Whether all his allegations are accurate I suppose only time will tell. And also, with Afrikander Lease's movement into the North American market, certainly the type of investors that Afrikander Lease is listing itself for are investors that believe in the future of gold, they believe in fairly dramatic increases in its price - I believe that as well - and there are a lot of people who believe in a lot of the things that Gata stands for. So it is I suppose controversial, but I think as the gold market is emerging a lot of what they are saying certainly looks like it's starting to happen.

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Shell -- Sharefin, 17:41:43 05/30/02 Thu

Yes I've seen a few articles on NUM striking.

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safr strike?--5 major up in gold? -- shell, 11:06:20 05/30/02 Thu

is there a miners strike on now or scheduled in safr?

i count us in wave 5 now in bullion and tse gold index from march 2001 low--comments?

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Gold -- Sharefin, 09:44:42 05/30/02 Thu

THE DAILY RECKONING

SELLERS OF GOLD

At every recorded price, there is an exchange. For
every buyer, there is a seller. Gold has a price. Someone
is selling gold.

Why?

There are several possibilities. (1) He thinks the
price of gold has peaked. (2) He thinks he has a better
use for his capital. (3) It isn't his gold; he's selling
it on behalf of someone else. If "someone else" is the
electorate, then the seller can do what he wants. Voters
have no meaningful understanding of gold. In this respect,
they are a lot like University of Chicago economists.

Who are the major sellers of gold? Gold mining
companies, central banks, gold speculators, and Indians.
(Patel, not Tonto.) Then there are short-term speculators
who sell promises to deliver gold in the future at a fixed
price, but who own no gold. We call them short sellers.

Gold mining companies sell gold because that's their
business. Their gold reserves in the ground are well known
and are factored into the prevailing price. Those mines
that have in effect sold short at a fixed price reap no
profit from a rising price of gold. They already locked in
a price, and this is what they are paid when they deliver.
He who went long -- promised to buy the mine's output at a
fixed price -- is the winner. For over five years,
numerous mines have been selling short, called forward
selling. They won when gold's price went down. Now they
are losing. The amount of gold being sold by mines for
future delivery is now drying up. The market has been
going against short sellers, i.e., forward sellers.

Central banks have been big sellers, although in a
disguised form. They have lent their gold for about 1% per
annum -- the cheapest borrowed money on earth. They have
not reported these loans as sales. Their official gold
reserves remain constant. But the leased gold is gone. It
was borrowed by large trading companies called bullion
banks. They borrowed at 1%, sold the gold, took the money
they earned by selling the gold and invested it at 5% or
more. It was a sweet, multi-billion dollar deal. But now
they are in a squeeze. They owe billions of dollars of
gold bullion to central banks, but to get it back, they
must buy gold bullion in the open market, which is now a
rising market. They are losing money, big time. What has
saved them so far is that the central banks are not
demanding repayment. Meanwhile, the public doesn't know
that the leased gold is gone. The central banks do not
publish these figures.

Then there are direct sales of gold by the central
banks. The most recent sales were made by the Bank of
England. It sold off at least half of its gold reserves
over a 3-year period which ended in March. The man
officially responsible for the decision to sell gold is
Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. He has come
under fire this month for having made horrendous investment
decisions. The INDEPENDENT (May 26) published this story.


Chancellor under attack over sale of gold
reserves

By Colin Brown and Jason Nisse

26 May 2002

Gordon Brown has "lost" over 400m pounds by
ordering the sale of part of Britain's gold
reserves by the Bank of England. . . .

Figures obtained by the Independent on Sunday
also show that his decision to order the Bank of
England to part with some of its gold reserves
and switch into the euro and yen was also not a
good bet for the taxpayer. The value of gold has
soared on the world markets as investors have
switched to gold.

However, figures issued by the Treasury last week
showed that the Bank has lost out to the tune of
$578m. Treasury minister Ruth Kelly said the
Governor of the Bank, Sir Edward George, had sold
395 tonnes of gold as part of the restructuring
of the United Kingdom's foreign currency reserves
since May 1999. The last auction was in March
2002 when the price of gold was $296.50 per
ounce. Gold was trading at $320.5 in London when
the markets closed on Friday.

When the Chancellor announced the policy in 1999,
he said he wanted to diversify our store of
wealth. Germany, Australia, Switzerland were
among the major holders of gold who were also
selling. They agreed in September 1999 to limit
sales to 400 tonnes a year in total until 2004.
Gold prices started rising after 11 September.


No public official relishes the prospect of being made
to look like a dolt. Mr. Brown looks now like a dolt. Sir
Eddie George, who heads the Bank of England, looks no
wiser. Other central bankers now must decide whether it is
a good idea to sell gold. They may wind up looking like
Sir Eddie. ("Sir Eddie" doesn't sound very impressive,
does it?)

Of course, major central bankers have a problem. If
the public ever learns that the central banks' gold leasing
program has turned into an unannounced gold sales program,
with the bullion banks in cahoots with the central banks,
and the bullion banks can't repay the central banks, heads
will roll.

A rising price of gold threatens to bankrupt the
bullion banks, who dare not go into the market to buy gold
for fear of what this will do to gold's price. So, it's a
waiting game. The bullion bankers are hoping for gold to
go down. So are the central bankers. But, at some point,
the central bankers will have to demand repayment. At that
point, the gold leasing game will end. The bullion banks
will go bust, the central banks won't be repaid, and the
public will find out -- once again -- that you should not
trust central banking.

Will that point ever come? Yes. How soon? I think
before the end of this decade. But even if it doesn't, the
public will still win out. If the gold leasing game goes
on, the public will buy back its gold, which was
confiscated from our grandparents or great grandparents.
If gold leasing ceases, the people who have bought gold and
held onto it will earn enormous rates of return on their
investments. Gold-haters will lose; gold bugs will win.
That is the way it should be.

Can gold's price fall to below the bottom of $256?
Anything can happen, but this now seems unlikely, short of
one last sell-off by central banks.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

There has been some increase in demand from Japanese
investors this year. There is at least circumstantial
evidence that the central bank of China has been
accumulating more gold than was believed likely until
recent months. But, so far, the upward pressure on gold's
price seems to be from the supply side. Reduced supplies
of ready sellers are leading to higher prices.

This is understandable. Reduced supplies of gold are
the result more of fear than greed. Gold mining firms
burdened with forward contracts see losses ahead: selling a
commodity whose price is rising, but not for them. Those
competitors who did not indulge in forward sales will
prosper. They will bid up the price of mining equipment
and labor. This will hurt those mines that are loaded up
with obligations to sell at a fixed price. They will face
a profits squeeze. So, they are less likely to add to
their positions of forward sales.

The same fear factor affects Indian families. They
are afraid of war's effect on rupee-based investments. War
also increases demand for gold. So, they could get locked
out of the gold jewelry market. Why sell? Stick with a
traditional dowry.

Short sellers in the commodity futures market worry
about losses. They buy gold futures to close out their
positions. This raises gold's price. So does their
departure from the short side of the market. Not only does
the supply of gold get tighter, the supply of investors
willing to promise to deliver gold gets tighter.

At some point, gold's rising price will attract the
attention of conventional investors. This may be years in
the future. I think it probably is. For two decades, gold
has moved down. Investors have lost confidence in gold.
But cycles do occur. Floors are reached. At some point,
rising demand becomes more significant than contracting
supply.

Traditional market bottoms occur when existing holders
get discouraged and sell. Demand has falls for years. The
market gets a reputation for producing nothing but losses.
Interest by new investors wanes. Only highly
entrepreneurial people are buyers. Existing holders grow
discouraged about ever making a profit. They finally sell
their positions. Capital shifts from older, experienced,
but discouraged holders to new entrepreneurs. This sell-
off is what the gold market experienced in 2001.

I believe there will be rising interest in gold over
the next few years, but that demand, short of nuclear war
in the Indian subcontinent, will be steady rather than
greed-driven. Demand will increase, as more investors are
brought back into the market. I don't expect a gold rush
by Wall Street. Wall Street is too conventional. It is
also allied at the highest levels with central banks and
bullion banks. Wall Street is the Establishment.

There is a long-term re-education process ahead. Gold
has been attacked, steadily, ever since 1914, when European
central banks ceased to redeem their gold certificates, and
their governments authorized this massive confiscation of
private wealth. The United States joined in, but re-
established convertability after the war ended. Europe
didn't, except for England in 1925, at a pre-war price that
could not be maintained without deflation, which the
economy got. Britain went off the gold standard in 1931.
The United States followed in 1933.

The war on gold is a war of the centralized, grasping
State against people with capital. This war is basic to
modern democracy: the substitution of the welfare-warfare
State for limited civil government. The bias against gold
is in the textbooks. It is in the minds of three
generations of bankers, industrialists, and investors. A
reversal of this bias will not come from within the
Establishment. It will be forced on the Establishment.


CONCLUSION

The tide seems to have turned for gold's price. As
the truth about the one-way direction of the central banks'
gold leasing programs becomes clear to a minority of
investors (but very few voters and legislators), gold
holders and entrepreneurs will conclude that gold's
supplies are far more limited than previously imagined.
When they recognize that the overhang of gold is based on a
statistical fraud -- that the gold is gone and will not be
coming back -- the upward pressure on gold's price will
accelerate.

The gold leasing phenomenon could become an
international Enron. I think it will. What one company
got away with temporarily, with the connivance of its
accounting form and the regulatory agencies, will be
regarded someday as a minor event. What the central banks
have done with their accounting systems dwarfs anything in
the history of accounting. The stock market eventually
exposed Enron as a gigantic accounting fraud. There will
be a similar day of reckoning for the central banks.

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 09:40:28 05/30/02 Thu

Larry Kudlow on the Gold Spike

But there's much more to the gold spike than that. "Gold and only gold is real money," said banker J.P. Morgan early in the last century. He was right then and he is still right today.

Over the last 5,000 years or so gold has held its value far better than various substitutes, such as paper currency. And through its long history gold has always communicated a monetary message of inflation (when money value declines) or deflation (when money value rises).

---

Curious… -- SilverDragon, 09:08:39 05/30/02 Thu

Curious…
How many now say…
Get Ready ta ‘ROCKET’!!!

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=XAU.X&time=5m

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:44:27 05/30/02 Thu

COMEX gold cools jets under contract highs

COMEX gold rested under contract highs early Thursday, exhausted from rallying in nine of the last 10 sessions, but traders see nothing on the horizon now to spook the bulls out of the safe-haven metal.

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:34:09 05/30/02 Thu

Gold fever spreads to the Idaho silver fields

The growing investor excitement over gold mining stocks now seems to be spilling over into the Idaho silver fields.

This is probably not surprising. Rallies in gold are often followed by rallies in silver -- “the poor man’s gold”. Since the price of silver has been lagging gold for months, odds of a catch-up move are looking good. Also, prospects are promising for heavier industrial demand as economic recovery accelerates.

And there’s another point too. While the universe of gold stocks is very small, the universe of silver stocks is downright tiny. Even a modest flow of new money into the sector could ratchet prices up quite sharply.

This new investor interest seems still in the early stage. Although prices and trading volumes in a number of these stocks are climbing higher (in some cases a lot higher), shares of many of the smaller juniors haven’t risen too much. That could come in stage two, if the trend continues.

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:29:21 05/30/02 Thu

Forget the explanations, just ride the gold wave

But to trader Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill., the mental exercise of finding reasons for gold's rise is pointless. To him, the rally is fuelled by psychology and momentum.

The market has risen so quickly that it has defied fundamentals and rational analysis.

"The bottom line is, it comes to a point where fundamental analysis is meaningless," he said yesterday.

"It's a monster on its own. Professional traders have the ability to gauge it, and the analysts who have learned their craft at school are left at home."

Mr. Kaplan dismissed the supply-demand argument, pointing to near-zero lease rates as evidence for low demand.

"Gold is running on its own. The gold market is very tiny."

"Just a little money thrown at it makes prices go up quickly, and that's in effect what we're seeing now," Mr. Kaplan said.

How should investors play the rally?

Mr. Kaplan said his only way to forecast the rally's course was to rely on his trader instincts.

"How do I gauge it? I don't know. You walk into a bar, how do you know what girl you like? It just happens. I don't know what to tell you."

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:25:43 05/30/02 Thu

Gold rally pauses but more bulls come to party

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:22:10 05/30/02 Thu

AurionGold Says Investor Reaction Shows Placer Dome Should Sweeten Bid

Terry Burgess, the managing director of Australian gold miner AurionGold Ltd., said Thursday that market reaction to Placer Dome Inc.'s (PDG) hostile takeover offer suggests the Canadian company needs to increase its offer from the original two billion Australian dollars ($1.13 billion).
"You have to be cognizant of what the market and the commentators have been suggesting, and the suggestion that they have is that this offer needs to be increased,"

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:14:38 05/30/02 Thu

To Hedge or Not to Hedge - pdf file

A recent prize winning (International Precious Metals Institute) thesis written by Matthew Callahan, a second year business school student at the Leonard Stern School of Business, substantiates these views. Titled “To Hedge or Not to Hedge”, Callahan states, “gold mining firms that aggressively hedge gold price risk are not maximizing shareholder value. These results provide empirical ammunition to the argument against hedging in the gold mining industry.” He goes on to say that “the reduction of the volatility in cash flows (from hedging) may not translate into a reduction in volatility of the stock price. In any case, it appears that while Barrick’s hedging efforts make the firm’s revenues more predictable and may lower risk, this is counter to any shareholder wealth maximization strategy…”

---

Gold on July -- Wlavio, 06:38:36 05/30/02 Thu


Trifles of July- peace with Russia.
Not the maximal growth of gold and hardly the US dollar will fall 4% more.


Gold- trifles of July
Trifles of July- the beginning of what war?
Dollar falls and after that begins the war, simpler than in Asia.


Rise of gold and US dollar
How the war ends?
Like usually- fast capitulation and rise of gold and US dollar.


Gold boom in winter
What will cause gold boom in winter?
Sharing of Asia, its frontiers and "the smoke of September 11th on the horizon."


Silver boom 2003
What boom of silver in 2003?
Who made up the biggest growth in a history of silver?

---

Gold on July -- Wlavio, 05:20:04 05/30/02 Thu


Trifles of July- peace with Russia.
Not the maximal growth of gold and hardly the US dollar will fall 4% more.

---

Gold rush -- Wlavio, 05:18:51 05/30/02 Thu

What is going to happen in June, July, August and November?
Gold rush is prolonging in summer and goes high up in winter.

---

The peak of a golden year of 2002 as the beginning of war -- Wlavio, 03:42:14 05/30/02 Thu

The main peak shall appear during one and a half decades of July. Follows the smaller jump in September. Though there shall be three of them till the end of a year 2002 and six during a year 2003.

---

PM Charts -- Sharefin, 01:36:24 05/30/02 Thu

Technical Analysis Section

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:34:27 05/30/02 Thu

Gold rush squeezes sterling

GOLD soared to $327 an ounce and the euro hit an eight-month high in what is becoming a substantial shake-out on the currency markets, led by a fall in the dollar. Sterling is holding up in dollar terms but its trade weighted index fell 0.5% on Wednesday and has dropped 7.4% since its peak two years ago.

Gold's rise is tightening the squeeze on banks and traders who have been bearish of the metal. It rose to $325 early on in London and topped $327 in the afternoon, its highest fixing level for five years, before closing at $325.

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:33:13 05/30/02 Thu

Gold hits highest price since October 1997

"I think gold over the past week or so has benefited from the sloppiness in the US dollar primarily," said Michael Dudas of Bear Stearns. "But I think over the past few months it has benefited from the liquidity we have seen pushed into the market place this year, with global central banks lowering interest rates and adding to the money supply, and also from the low opportunity cost for gold."

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:27:19 05/30/02 Thu

Russia gold output accelerates, miners see 170mt in 2002

Gold production in Russia could hit 170mt this year, a sharp rise over last year's 141.5mt, according to Russian goldminers.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 01:22:50 05/30/02 Thu

Gold loses some lustre, but Indians unfazed

Plan to buy jewellery in India, the world's largest gold consumer market? Beware!

Chances are that jewellery labelled "22 carat gold" will have just 18 or 20 carats of the yellow metal.

About 88 percent of samples collected by the state-run Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) in a survey early this year did not meet its quality specifications.

Gold demand in India is about 855 tonnes a year, more than double that of the second-largest market, the United States.

Both men and women wear lavish jewellery and gold ornaments, and gold is an important part of Hindu marriages as parents believe it gives their daughters some financial security.

"I trust my jeweller," said Kamala Rawat, a housewife, echoing a common theme among unwary buyers who have stuck loyally to certain shops for generations.

"Most Indians rarely sell their jewellery, and therefore don't get a chance to find out how pure the ornaments really are," one bullion trader said.

Shops, conscious of customer loyalty, usually buy back ornaments they have sold without checking the quality.

Problems arise only when the ornaments are sold to a different jeweller who insists on quality checks.

India has about 100,000 workshops supplying gold jewellery to nearly 300,000 retail outlets, most of them family-owned, single-shop operations, according to industry estimates.

Gold prices in India, which imports about 70 percent of its requirements, are slightly more than six percent above global rates because of local levies. Indian banks normally import gold on behalf of traders from trading centres like London and Switzerland.

Labour charges add another 10-15 percent to traditional ornaments, favoured by price-conscious buyers.

Hallmarked branded ornaments with new designs are marked up 25 to 40 percent.

---

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:19:30 05/30/02 Thu

SA gold strike could spread - union

South Africa's gold mine workers took the gloss off a superb day's trade for bullion and gold shares as they raised the prospect of an industry-wide strike, which would bring the country's mining sector to a grinding halt.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 01:17:30 05/30/02 Thu

JP Morgan ups gold price forecasts

JP Morgan said on Thursday it had revised its gold price forecasts for this year and 2003 to take into account gold's rally to its highest level in more than two years.

JP Morgan forecast gold would average $305 an ounce in 2002, higher than its previous forecast of $290 an ounce, and $325 an ounce in 2003 rather than $310 an ounce.

"We believe there is more upside opportunity in the gold price rather than downside risk in the medium term due to inevitable reduction in gold supply as mines age,"

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Gold -- Sharefin, 01:13:48 05/30/02 Thu

JP Morgan ups gold price forecasts

JP Morgan said on Thursday it had revised its gold price forecasts for this year and 2003 to take into account gold's rally to its highest level in more than two years.

JP Morgan forecast gold would average $305 an ounce in 2002, higher than its previous forecast of $290 an ounce, and $325 an ounce in 2003 rather than $310 an ounce.

"We believe there is more upside opportunity in the gold price rather than downside risk in the medium term due to inevitable reduction in gold supply as mines age,"

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Gold -- Sharefin, 01:12:45 05/30/02 Thu

Newmont eyes $500m cast-offs float

Newmont Mining Corp is set to take advantage of the firming gold market to divest its unwanted Normandy Mining assets, and could float some marginal mines in Australia and New Zealand.

The float, thought to be worth up to $500 million, is one of the avenues Newmont is understood to be pursuing after consulting several investment banks about its divestment options.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 01:10:38 05/30/02 Thu

Gold industry may face 'dirty gold' fight

What if gold were no longer an object of desire but an object of disgust? What if environmentalists were able to do to the image of the glittering metal what animal rights activists did to the fur coat - paint it as a symbol of cruel and thoughtless vanity, not of brilliant success? Many environmentalists want just that, but it is not yet an idea whose time has come.
At a high-profile mining conference on sustainable development in Toronto this month, which is home to some of the world’s biggest gold miners, several proposals were advanced to put an end to gold extraction.

But the anti-mining calls probably will not come to much.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:43:44 05/29/02 Wed

Goldman sees gold losing its luster

Investors expecting gold stocks and the precious metal to continue to glitter may be in for a surprise, according to one analyst who downgraded several gold miners Wednesday.

"We believe that gold will be more challenged to rise substantially from current $324 levels over the next year due to weakness in physical jewelry demand," Goldman Sachs' analyst Daniel McConvey told clients.

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One wonders that Gold Jewelry Demand won't be replaced with Gold Investor Demand if the US Dollar & markets continue to slump.(:-)))

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:34:23 05/29/02 Wed

Gold stocks' decline accelerates

The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index was down 3.2 percent and the CBOE Gold Index dipped 3 percent. The Amex Gold Bugs Index slid 1.2 percent.

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Lenny's Commentary -- Sharefin, 20:32:29 05/29/02 Wed

GENERAL COMMENTS

About one and a half weeks ago, J.P. Morgan/Chase issued a major sell signal on gold, advising their clients to take profits in their long positions, as they believed the bull run had ended. And here we sit just shortly thereafter with gold some $20 per ounce higher in value. Today, it was Goldman Sach's turn to downgrade some gold mining stocks and to proclaim their disbelief in this continuing move to higher values in gold. And here we sit, after their proclamation, with gold making new highs, the highest since October 16, 1997. I would venture to guess that the Wall Street "boys" just simply cant envision that both investors and speculators are buying, and that the fundamentals of supply, demand, jewelry consumption just aren't the motivating factors to this market as once they were.

But, Dear Readers, the motivating factors for a continued rise in gold still favor higher prices. The USD is falling rapidly now, with the Dollar Index now under 112, down from 121 in February of this year. This obviously scares global investors who seek protection from the depreciating USD. Equity prices are still under assault with the S&P stock index down almost 20% year on year. Add into the pot the growing tensions in the world, and the fact that the global hedge book of the gold producers (who previously sold gold forward) is now in the red by about $5 BILLION USD, and throw in the interest of Western investors who love to buy momentum, stir gently, and you have the recipe for a continuing bull. I trust that, over time, the market will shame Goldman Sachs just as it humiliated J.P.Morgan/Chase.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:30:10 05/29/02 Wed

Gold soars to 5-year highs on global tensions

Gold soared to its highest level in nearly five years on Wednesday as investors scrambled into the ultimate safe haven asset to protect themselves from a possible India-Pakistan war and a slumping dollar.

Gold was set or "fixed" in London at $327.05 a troy ounce, its highest fixing level since October 16, 1997.

The "fix" is a price set by market makers with the London Bullion Market Association in a wood-panelled room at merchant banker and bullion house N.M. Rothschilds. It tracks movements in the 24-hours a day spot market.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:25:05 05/29/02 Wed

Bye bye to Bush's bucks, we're sold on gold

When George W Bush turned up in the White House wearing cowboy boots and with crude oil under his fingernails, he looked like a capitalist red in tooth and claw. You would never have thought that 18 months later, US capitalism and its greatest symbol, the dollar, would be looking so sickly.

Yet that is what has happened. After a decade-long bull run - when it shrugged off the Asian crisis, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management and the bursting of the dotcom bubble - the dollar is sinking like a Texan sunset.

There are many reasons for this. The capital flows which sustained the greenback's hegemony are reversing, as foreign investors find it hard to make a return on overpriced US assets. Suddenly, the chronic US trade deficit is exposed; without those capital flows, it looks like a serious drag on the currency.

It may be bad luck for President Bush, but some of his policy decisions haven't helped. Slapping on steel tariffs shocked America's free-trade friends, and now a Farm Bill which dramatically increases subsidies has done further damage.

Investors fret that this administration talks of free markets but allows protectionism. Its budget is under unexpected strain too, from military spending post-September 11. The US Treasury is now borrowing $1 billion a week, and forecasts run up to $140 billion for this year.

Dollar weakness means euro strength. The euroland economy is struggling, but a 20pc devaluation in three years is a big stimulus to growth, a prospect which should reassure investors as they wait to see whether France and Germany will breach the borrowing rules of the Growth and Stability Pact. It's hardly a recipe for a big bull market in euros, which is why the real beneficiary of the dollar's demise is not a paper currency at all, but gold. After a two-decade bear market it is shining brighter than one of Mr Bush's belt buckles.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:14:41 05/29/02 Wed

Red Gold Rising

A fascinating story about how Red China is using Swiss banks to launder gold just like Nazi Germany did before World War II, and for a similar purpose! What is that common purpose? The answer appears to be to generate laundered money to corrupt the American political system and thus assist their planned imperialism. This AI-TV program created a major stir in Hong Kong, becoming a major story in their press. It has even created a significant effect on the Hong Kong stock market!

In America, however, this story is being suppressed, the most reasonable explanation being the political allegiances of our journalists. See the story they do not want you to find out about. American Investigator follows the money and gold trail, and reveals which politicians in America are benefiting. Filled with info on how both the Nazi and Red Chinese gold operations work. Includes interviews with Wall Street expert Lawrence Kudlow, who sees significant danger to our financial markets in this scandal.

Not only is Red China using money to corrupt American politicians as the Nazis did before World War II, they are also using Wall Street to assist this operation. Famed Nazi-hunter Marty Mendelson is interviewed. He is mainly responsible for the recent scandal over Nazi gold by proving that the Swiss still had $2 billion worth of Nazi gold stolen from Jews. He also tells how he got some of it back to the victims.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:03:07 05/29/02 Wed

Gold bulls see further dollar decline

Gold and silver backers see an accelerating decline in the dollar contributing to further strong gains for their metals.

"It is my view that the demand for dollars will decline. As this demand continues to decline, the flight from the dollar will accelerate, regardless whether or not the Federal Reserve reduces the supply of dollars," says James Turk, editor of Free Market Gold & Money Report in New Hampshire and founder of electronic payment system GoldMoney.

"Gold is the hitching post of the universe, and when the system breaks down they will go into gold," newsletter editor James Dines of The Dines Letter said about traditional investors.

There are caveats. Bill Bonner of the e-mail newsletter Daily Reckoning points out that in the 750 trading days when gold's price went to $875 from $103, 1976 to 1980, the metal set new highs only one day in five, on average. Another newsletter editor, Ian McAvity of Deliberations on World Markets in Toronto, showed in a series of charts that in the final two years of that gold rally, prices of gold mining stocks barely budged and in many cases fell. "The mining companies had had their day in the sun, rising hundreds and hundreds of percent," McAvity says

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Gold -- Sharefin, 18:02:18 05/29/02 Wed

O Brother Homestake, Where Art Thou?

At the end of the day, hedging was nothing more than an devious and complicated way to finance a declining business. Complexity in monetary matters, in the words of John Kenneth Galbraith, ” is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it.” The truth about gold hedging is that it is a short sale, which can be covered in only two ways. First, it can be covered as gold produced by mines is repaid to the bullion dealers, who in turn repay the original central bank lenders. However, this method of repayment takes time, often years. Such a delay might be excruciating in a rapidly rising price trend. What is also interesting about this method of repayment is that it actually reduces the supply of gold because gold earmarked for repayment never hits the market. The second method of repayment is outright purchase of physical gold on the open market. If done in an orderly, measured fashion, open market purchases are probably feasible. However, if all the shorts get the idea at the same time, it would be very difficult to cover because the amount of this short interest is at the very least 4,000 tonnes, or more than 1.5 years of new mine supply.

What is happening in the gold market currently is that the hedged mining companies, after having taken a pasting in the form of share underperformance and vocal criticism from the investment community, are beginning to capitulate. Recently, Durban Roodeport, a South African mining company, recently raised cash through a new share issue. The use of proceeds was to purchase gold on the open market in order to close out its hedge book. Other miners have been quietly writing puts at strike prices below the market, in the hopes that they will become long gold on pullbacks. However, the proliferation of puts only serves to put a floor beneath the market. Several prominent hedgers, including Anglogold, have reduced their hedge books and numerous others have stated that, at the very least, they will not increase their hedge books and are in the process of reviewing their hedge exposure. The intellectual case for hedging appears to be in tatters and there appear to be very few who would advocate it vociferously. The recent rise in the gold price has all the appearance of a slow motion short squeeze, which could well get out of hand if too many rush for the exits.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:43:03 05/29/02 Wed

An "Iraqi War Premium" Could Add $30 An Ounce To Gold

A report from the Commonwealth Bank Of Australia has said that the world gold price could rise by another $30 a troy ounce in the next few months should America continue to build further support to help remove the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq.

“The US appears to be trying to build support to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Action towards that could be expected to add $30/oz to gold,” the bank said.

Over the next few weeks however, technical charts indicate that gold could drop “in a congested manner back to $310/oz,” as its “rally is ready for a pause” after its rise over the last two weeks led to an overbought momentum condition, the bank said.

But the bank expects the rally to resume towards the end of June, adding that “prices will be susceptible to a fast acceleration towards the final objective at $345/oz,” with it peaking in mid-July.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 04:39:21 05/29/02 Wed

Impending Gold Futures Default

The coming default on gold futures contracts by the short sellers and large bullion banks will surprise many (because they don't know what it is and therefore cannot anticipate it), and will most likely act to catapult gold prices into 4, 5, or even 6 figures per ounce.

I have written this article for several audiences. First, for those people new to the gold market, who might be thinking about getting into gold somehow, but are not sure what to buy. Second, I'm writing to those already in the gold market, so that they know what's coming, and so that they don't sell out too soon.

Third, I'm writing for seasoned gold investors and/or a few very wealthy individuals who believe that gold futures contracts represent a sound investment vehicle. There are about 90 of these wealthy people according to Andy Smith, who was quoted in Thom Calandra's CBS Marketwatch report of May 24th, as saying, "Large-account speculators who are "long" gold futures on the COMEX in New York have surpassed 90 in number." (Up from 77.) These 90 people, or funds, or entities, desperately need to get this article into their hands. I don't know who they are, nor do I know how to contact them, but I hope that the publication of this article at gold-eagle.com will help to reach them. Readers, if you know anybody who might be one of these 90 large-account speculators, or if you know anybody who might know somebody who might be one of these 90, please forward this article to them.

If these wealthy people are convinced, and stop playing paper games, and start buying gold bullion instead, the price will really take off, and will cause the default on the futures contracts to happen that much sooner. But if they are not convinced, it won't matter much to the world, because at this point we don't have that long to wait until the default. Yes, even big elephants succumb to the forces of nature and can die during droughts just like any other animal, and the current market forces that are draining away the last bit of liquid (gold) will not be denied.

The point I am making in this article is that investors should avoid buying a gold futures contract, and avoid buying gold call options, because these investment vehicles are paper promises that are prone to default. That's a fact. My opinion is that default on these contracts is both inevitable and increasingly imminent. I believe that those gold industry watchers who have access to key information are saying that when gold crosses $354/oz., that most of those who have written the bulk of the gold contracts of today will be severely hurt financially. Thus, perhaps a default may happen if it is feared that this price level will be surpassed, or soon thereafter.

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Dollar -- Sharefin, 04:17:22 05/29/02 Wed

Volavka
Hi, I think your numbers will be stepping stones.

There's plenty of room below .99 for the dollar.

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Dollar -- volavka, 03:47:54 05/29/02 Wed

Hello nick:
Dollar headed for.99
Gold 650

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Gold & GATA -- Sharefin, 01:08:33 05/29/02 Wed

Bill Murphy of GATA and LeMetropoleCafe.com will be interviewed by Tom O'Brien on Tiger Financial News Network at 5:40 pm May 29 to present an update on the Association of Mining Analysts conference in London that was so ably chaired by AMA chairman, Michael Coulson.

You can hear the interview with Tom, if you wish, at:
TFNN or
or here

This is Bill's second appearance on TFN. Tom is one class act who KNOWS his stuff!!


Listen to the interview:Click Here

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Fiat vs Gold -- Sharefin, 22:08:17 05/28/02 Tue

Implications of a falling dollar

MAJOR DOLLAR TOP IN MAKING... We've stated in recent updates that the U.S. dollar looked toppy to us. Here's why. Chart 1 is a monthly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index showing the uptrend since 1995. Notice that the monthly MACD lines (along the top) have turned bearish.

FALLING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR GOLD... Historically, the primary beneficialy of a falling dollar is the gold market -- and gold shares. There is usually an inverse relationship between the dollar and gold -- as shown in the next two charts (spanning three years). And since gold stocks usually rise faster than the price of bullion -- gold shares remain our favorite play.

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Fiat -- Sharefin, 21:22:03 05/28/02 Tue

The following came in from a spoof magazine World Weekly News and could hardly be described as realistic.
The sad thing is it could one day really happen.

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Weekly World News -- May 28, 2002
Frightened Federal Reserve Board Alan Greenspan Warns President
2nd Great Depression Is Just Days Away!!!!
Written by: Sunsan Ambrosino Weekly World News


A shattering stock market crash, equal to the one that triggered the Great Depression and devastated the country for years, is set to strike America by the First of July!

And the situation is so dire, say White House sources, that President George Bush "literally shook like a leaf" -- and then, a little later, "wiped tears from his eyes" --- when Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and other trusted financial advisors gathered in the Oval Office, warning him to prepare for:

- A stock market collapse that will bankrupt tens of thousands of investors and businesses and throw millions out of work --- in the span of a few hours.

- Unemployment topping 30 percent by the Fourth of July and 40 percent by Labor Day.

- Millions being forced from their foreclosed homes and trailers by September.

- Unchecked violence civil unrest and martial law as have-nots rise up in anger --- and desperation against Fortune 500 fat cats and other rich people who manage to hold on to their wealth despite the collapse.

- Widespread starvation barely held in check by government soup kitchens and charitable handouts.

- Pay cuts of 50 to 75 percent for working Americans as companies struggle to maintain profits and executive salaries while surviving the downturn.

- Rampant disease and epidemics fueled by unsanitary living conditions and lack of medical care in makeshift camps and shanty towns packed gith with the homeless and destitute.

- The rise of the radical political parties on the left and the right with communists and fascists - both promising economic salvation and battling for power in local and national arenas.

- The emergencies of a massive, crime-based underground economy as normally law-abiding middle-class citizens turn to drug-dealing, prostitution and even kidnapping and murder to support themselves and their families.

- The devastation of Social Security and Medicare, which will leave the elderly struggling to survive. Both funds will be overtaxed to the max by the economic collapse and the massive layoffs will slash the incoming revenue that is used to pay current benefits.

- College students, millions of them will be booted from classes because they can no longer pay for books and tuition. Also, federal student loans funds will dry up.

- Teenagers will go on a massive crime rampage to get money for luxuries they can no longer afford - CDs, albums, designer jeans, junk food and drugs.

- Wave of emigrants --- including those from families who have lived in the United States for generations --- leaving the country in search of jobs and new lives in foreign lands.

- The repossession of an estimated 100 million cars, light trucks and SUVs that ordinary Americans have overextended themselves to buy and will no longer be able to pay for.

- So many bank failures not even the FDIC will be able to cover the losses, leaving people with checking and savings accounts dead broke --- and powerless to do anything about it.

- And that's not all. According to former presidential advisor and economist G. William Brandermann, a financially weak and reeling America "will face serious new pressure from enemies in the Middle Easet, here Iraq and Iran are already threatened to slash oil production in order to create shortages and drive up the price of crude"

And we'll be more prone than ever, he warned, "to attacks by terrorists who'll almost certainly seize the opportunity to compound America's financial misery and do what Osama Bin Laden and his evil cronies failed to do in New York and Washington on 9-11 --- deliver the knock-out punch that will lay democracy to waste once and for all."

"We've heard warning about a Second Great Depression in the past, but this time it's not a matter of "if" the bubble is going to burst, it's a matter of "when" the bubble is going to burst --- and the fact is we've got just weeks to prepare for the most devastating economic downturn in history." Declares Braindermann, who has close ties to the Bush White House and charges that "the major media are vastly under-reporting this dire and ominous threat" to our way of life.

"President Bush and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan have been trying to put a good "spin" on the economy," he adds, "saying we're pulling out a 'recession' even as thousands of workers continue to be given pink slips.
"But they know the truth, and from what my sources tell me, Mr. Bush --- who apparently shook like a leaf when Greenspan briefed him and then wiped tears from his eyes when everything sank in and realized just how bad off we really are --- will address the country when the time is right, probably within two weeks.

This is a delicate and terrifying situation. The President needs to tell Americans whats happening, but he can't risk jumping the gun and sparking a public panic. The last thing we need is a run on the banks and citizens going wild in the streets. And if you don't think that can happen, you aren't familiar with the first great depression. Stock brokers and businessmen and even ordinary people behaved in ways that nobody could have predicted.

They jumped out of buildings, for God Sakes --- and they stole from their neighbors, their friends and even their own Mothers just to keep a little food in their bellies. I don't want to be an alarmist, "he continued, but quite frankly, I see worse than that happening now."

This is a different world than the one our parents and grandparents lived in. It's a more impersonal world and people can be meaner. I'm frightened by the prospect of how younger Americans who have never endured hardship will react to hunger, fear, joblessness and want. The President and his advisors are worried sick too. The ones who started calling this "SECOND RATE DEPRESSION," --- Not Me. And they don't use terms like that for the fun of it, that's for sure.

White House spokesman declined to comment on Brandermann's Report, calling it "Premature" and assuring reporters that Bush "has done an excellent job of keeping the American public up to date on the economy and there is no reason to believe that he will not do so in the future."

Privately, however, sources sing a different tune.
As one highly placed Washington insider put it: "What the HELL is Bush supposed to say: 'MY FELLOW AMERICANS, YOU'RE TOAST - KISS YOUR CASH, YOUR JOBS, YOUR HOME, YOUR CAR AND YOUR FOOD GOODBYE?'
"COME ON! HE'S GOT NO CHOICE BUT TO WAIT UNTIL IT HAPPENS, THAN GET ON TV AND TELL PEOPLE TO STAY CALM AND HANG IN THERE UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT CAN GET A HANDLE ON JUST HOW BAD THINGS ARE AND THAN DO WHATEVER THEY CAN TO KEEP THE COUNTRY FROM BLOWING APART AT THE SEAMS."

While the White House monitors the situation and develops a battle plan for the country, the super rich are doing they historically have done when faced with impending financial crisis.

"They're preparing for the absolute worse," says Branderman, who advised President Richard M. Nixon on price controls and other aspects of the economy of the early 1970's. "They're stock piling food and medical supplies, and improving security around their homes, selling stocks and converting cash to GOLD, while paper money still has value.

Should you do the same? I did. Remember: Depressions aren't only severe, they are exceptionally cruel - and they tend to last a long time. Things will get worse before they get better.

"God help you if you aren't prepared."

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Gold -- Sharefin, 21:06:15 05/28/02 Tue

Will gold stocks shine for investors in the second half of 2002?

The Wall Street Transcript has published an in-depth (4,600 words) interview with David Mallalieu, Gold Analyst for Scotia Capital, which he examines the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations. This interview is part of a 18-page Gold Stocks report featuring two leading analyst and two Gold Stocks sector CEO interviews

--
With regard to primary mine supply going forward, although Scotia Capital does not actually model all of the western world's mines, we have modeled a sufficient number - approximately 67% of world supply - to make good forecasts of where supply will be going over the next decade. Our numbers suggest that production will be relatively static in 2002, 2003, and 2004 versus 2001. We should see a decline in production that really begins to accelerate post-2005. You've heard people say that by the end of the decade, primary supply could be only 30% of what we have in 2002. If nothing changes, we believe that would be correct.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:55:00 05/28/02 Tue

Gold soars to new highs on weak dollar, Dow

Gold prices rose to their highest in more than two years in New York Tuesday, topping $325 an ounce as the U.S. dollar and stock market slumped and investors unnerved by saber rattling between India and Pakistan sought safe havens.

"They took out $322.50, there were stops above it, and there just seems to be buying flying in along with the stock market," said a floor broker.

The dollar fell to an eight-month low against the euro at $0.9309, continuing a trend that has helped bolster gold by making bullion more affordable to overseas investors in their local currencies.

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The last line though often raised as a reason is BS.
One only needs to view the POG in global currencies to realise it is a lie.

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Fiat -- Sharefin, 20:42:34 05/28/02 Tue

BILLIONS LOST BY FEDS

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Gold -- Sharefin, 20:38:43 05/28/02 Tue

Gold's Technicals are Very Bullish

Gold has been sensing that something isn't right since 1999. That's when it began to quietly bottom, during the stock euphoria, and it's now outperforming all investment markets… stocks, bonds, the international currencies, the other precious metals and commodities. As more investors take note, they're going to move into gold, pushing it higher.

More important, we think this trend is only getting started. The 20 year old stock era, for instance, is changing to a golden era and gold is poised to rise further than most expect.

We're still in the early stages of the gold advance. Whether or not gold breaks clearly above $325 now or later this year is not as important as knowing the major trend is up and further advances this year are inevitable.

The next major hurdle in the big picture is the prior #3 peak at $325. Since 1980, gold's #1 rises have essentially resisted near the prior #3 peaks (see 1987 and 1995). This means if gold clearly breaks above $325 it'll be entering a new, very strong phase of the bull market.

Gold could then rise to its major 22 year downtrend near the $360 to $380 level. But if broken, gold would then be entering a potentially explosive type of bull market.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:43:51 05/28/02 Tue

Placer's hedging conundrum

A lesser known aspect of the proposed takeover of AurionGold is that suitor, Placer Dome, will inherit the world's second largest hedge book - a fact anti-hedging crusaders won't stomach easily.

As of end-March, AurionGold had hedged 5.4 million ounces, or a massive 86 percent of its reserves, with a mark-to-market value of minus A$327.6 million. This is assuming a spot price at that time of $301.40/oz (A$570.29/oz). AurionGold's foreign exchange book was also out-of-the-money by A$83.7 million at an Aussie dollar exchange rate of $0.5285.

AurionGold and Placer's combined hedge books would cover almost 20 million ounces of gold production of which 8.4 million ounces is in forward sales, 5.9 million ounces in puts bought, and 5.4 million ounces calls sold. That exposure equated to about 40 percent of the two companies' current amalgamated reserves base (of approximately 50.6 million ounces).

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:13:53 05/28/02 Tue

Holding the rising trend

For many, it will seem like wishful thinking, but the recovery in the gold price is looking steadily less like an aberration. It has held above US300/oz for almost two months; this week it reached 316, its highest in more than 27 months.

There have been numerous retreats and rallies since the price turned at below 260 in early April last year. But there has been no sharp and unsustainable spike, as happened in October 1999 when gold soared from about $255 to more than 320 in a few weeks and then fell back into a steady decline over the following year. This time there is a rising trend which remains intact.

None of this, of course, amounts to much when it comes to predicting where the gold price will go from here. But it continues to look positive, particularly for those who bought gold shares in anticipation of higher bullion prices.

It seems a long time since gold was considered an attractive or prudent hedge against weakness in leading currencies and financial markets, or against global political risk, but that is what appears to be happening now.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:10:46 05/28/02 Tue

For investors, what glitters is still gold

WHAT is it about gold? It's a wellknown but unspoken fact that a significant number of gold investors are hopelessly eccentric. For these investors, the investment case for gold is, has been, and always will be positive, no matter what the underlying dynamics of the market and industry are.

It has to be something about the ethos of gold. The connotations of luck, sudden riches, and its long history of accumulated associations of adventure and prosperity which touches the dreamer that resides suppressed in everyone. It's a form of joyous madness.

What a contrast to the nature of the business itself. Gritty, dangerous, particularly in SA with its history of appalling work practices and tough remuneration levels.

But for the gold bulls, the investment case for gold is so fundamentally sound that the reason for a depressed gold price can only be the result of a conspiracy. And who better to pin this charge onto but a consortium of international banks.

Hence, a group of gold investors went so far as to try to take the US government to court for suppressing the gold price.

It is therefore a rich irony that the man most responsible for the latest rise in gold from the 22-year low it hit last April when it was $255/oz is none other than US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:07:37 05/28/02 Tue

China raises gold prices at weekly fixing

China's central People's Bank of China raised domestic buy and sell prices of 99.99 percent pure gold by 0.78 percent at its regular weekly fixing on Monday.

In unscheduled move, the central bank raised gold prices twice last week following a gold rally on international markets.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 08:04:48 05/28/02 Tue

Japanese gold bullion to be sold for England’s security

The remote Japanese town hosting England’s squad may have to dip in to its treasured gold bullion to help meet security costs if Sven-Goran Erikkson’s men get through the first round.

"We think we have enough budget to fund the camp through the first round of the tournament," a spokeswoman for the Tsuna Town government told AFP. "But if the English team does well and keeps winning in the knock-out round, our budget might fall about 19 million yen ($150,794) short.

"As one possible way of covering the expected shortfall, the Mayor has said he was considering selling the town’s gold bullion," she said.

In 1989, Tsuna, with 17,000 residents on the islet of Awaji off Kobe, bought the 62.696 kilogram piece of gold bullion with a 100 million yen special government grant to make it a tourist attraction. The previous year, the Japanese government distributed 100 million yen each to 3,268 municipalities across the nation, including Tsuna, to help revitalise their economy. Tsuna officials claimed the gold bullion, which the town allows visitors to touch, has been a core of the town’s tourism, attracting more than 3.2 million tourists to the town some 500 kilometres southwest of Tokyo. Tsuna is accessible by boat or the world’s longestsuspension bridge.

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Is nothing sacred from the English demand.......
Why won't they accept fiat?

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Silver -- Sharefin, 08:01:16 05/28/02 Tue

Silver matches highest fix since October, 1999

SILVER - Silver fixed at 482.00 cents an ounce from previous 477.00 cents to match May 22, fix which was its highest since October, 1999.

GOLD - Fixed in the London morning session at $321.40/oz, up from previous fix of $320.05 an ounce to hit its highest fix since October 14, 1999.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:35:48 05/28/02 Tue

COMEX gold retains safety bid in early trade

Floor brokers said they expected the focus of the week to be rollovers before June delivery notices start on Friday.

"I'm expecting a correction soon. This week we'll be concentrating on June-August, that's about it," said one, referring to the switch.

Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial players as of last Tuesday had increased their net long position to 46,914 contracts from 37,839. This marks a new extreme in a market that has not leaned this far to the bull side in about seven years.

"By Thursday or Friday we would guess that this total was even higher," wrote analyst Timothy Evans of IFR/Pegasus in a market commentary. "In the near term this flow into the market supports the uptrend in prices. But at the same time it increases the risk of eventual long liquidation."

"Gold is holding here. There really is no big selling around," said a chief dealer. "The people with long positions seem content to just hold them for the time being. With the dollar doing what it's doing there is no pressure for people to liquidate."

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:31:37 05/28/02 Tue

Gold rises as Pakistan warns on war

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:29:44 05/28/02 Tue

CFTC Commitments: Gold, Silver Longs Extend Exposure

The Commitment of Traders report indicted that large speculators were long 75,332 contracts and short 28,418 contracts as of May 21, compared to long 70,071 contracts and short 32,232 contracts as of May 14.

Sources said the increase in net long exposure to May 21 was not surprising given the resilience displayed by June gold futures in the days leading up to the report.

Dealers at the time said the strength was due to fresh fund buying and short covering; claims borne out in the CFTC data.

In the days following May 21 sources expected further fund buying to have occurred, extending the net long position further. They said that while that steady speculative long accumulation will continue to push prices higher, the risk of long liquidation also increases.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:24:33 05/28/02 Tue

CFTC Commitments: Gold, Silver Longs Extend Exposure

The Commitment of Traders report indicted that large speculators were long 75,332 contracts and short 28,418 contracts as of May 21, compared to long 70,071 contracts and short 32,232 contracts as of May 14.

Sources said the increase in net long exposure to May 21 was not surprising given the resilience displayed by June gold futures in the days leading up to the report.

Dealers at the time said the strength was due to fresh fund buying and short covering; claims borne out in the CFTC data.

In the days following May 21 sources expected further fund buying to have occurred, extending the net long position further. They said that while that steady speculative long accumulation will continue to push prices higher, the risk of long liquidation also increases.

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Silver -- Sharefin, 07:20:04 05/28/02 Tue

Silver Standard Provides Excellent Leverage To Rising Price Of Silver.

Silver is on the move behind gold and last week it topped US$4.84/oz which is a seventeen month high. This advance coincided with publication of the World Silver Survey 2002 which is assembled for the Silver Institute by the respected Gold Fields Mineral Services, so carries plenty of weight. The key conclusion is that demand for silver from industry, photography, jewellery and coins is set to rise this year as a result of the rebound in the global gross domestic product. Commodity funds are starting to anticipate this move and they are largely responsible for the strength of the silver price at the moment.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:17:04 05/28/02 Tue

Placer Dome Could Be Vulnerable to Bid Itself Following Acquisition of AurionGold.

It is a sad day for Australia as its gold industry will now largely be in the hands of North America and South Africa companies. The next generation of producers, excluding Newcrest with its horrendous hedge book, are Croesus, St Barbara, Equigold and Troy which are well behind in terms of size, though all have ambitions. Croesus, post the successful acquisition of the assets of Central Norseman Gold, is moving up to production running at a rate of 320,000ozs/year by the end of 2002; St Barbara is expecting to be well over 200,000 ozs/year when the high grade Paulsen's orebody is developed; and Equigold should top the 160,000 oz/year mark when Kirkalocla comes on stream next year. Troy is well behind all three of these, but intends to fast-track production at its Brazilian project.

Both Placer and AurionGold have plenty of hedging but Placer's chief executive Jay Taylor has said that his intention is "to reduce the size of AurionGold's book to bring it more in conformity with Placer's policy, which is to have a modest amount of hedging, and leave most of the upside to our shareholders". Quite what this means is anyone's guess as AurionGold had already planned to reduce its forward sales exposure to 60 percent from 86 percent of its total reserves over the next two years by delivering gold into its hedge book and by increasing its reserves. Placer is being rather more conservative with a reduction from 8.6 million ounces to 8 million ounces by the end of the year. This will be carried out by delivering gold into the hedges, rather than opting for a quick disposal, so little benefit will be felt by the gold price - a strategy which commodities analysts expect will do little to influence bullion prices.

As Bernard Swanepoel, the great anti-hedger remarked as he signed the document agreeing to sell his stake to Placer at a healthy profit to Harmony, "Placer Dome is the logical owner of AurionGold". Indeed it is, in that the two companies are already involved in joint ventures at the Granny Smith and Porgera gold mines, but other thoughts may have crossed his mind. Who else would pay around US$180 per ounce for gold reserves still in the ground and still not offer shareholders much in the way of leverage to the gold price? Only Placer Dome would seem to be the answer.

The question now is how long Placer Dome itself will remain independent. It will have production of 3.8 million ounces and will be the 5th largest gold producer in the world and the 2nd largest in Australia The enlarged Placer will also have interests in 17 operating mines on 4 continents, and significant land positions in world class gold mining regions within Western Australia (including the Kalgoorlie and Laverton regions), Nevada, Ontario and Witwatersrand.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:15:27 05/28/02 Tue

Gold Up On Tocom Arbitrage; Uptrend Intact

With very good support seen for gold at $320/oz, the Hong Kong-based trader said the technical and fundamental indicators for gold continue to look good.

Analysts and traders still expect the precious metal to continue to stride towards $350/oz should it succeed in clearing resistance levels at $330/oz and $340/oz.

But in the immediate term, it will trade in a range of $320-$323/oz before attempting another break on the upside.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:12:18 05/28/02 Tue

Gold Up On Tocom Arbitrage; Uptrend Intact

Spot gold was higher Tuesday late in Asia after Japanese traders bought on the physical market to arbitrage against their sales on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, traders said.

The buying helped push gold back over $321 a troy ounce, after it spent much of Asian trading hours languishing in the $320-$321/oz range.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:10:58 05/28/02 Tue

When fear strikes, go for gold

Gold is among the safest haven for your funds in times of uncertainty. In war like situations, the yellow metal provides the perfect hedge against risk as well as inflation.

Although cash is the king in such times, gold offers an opportunity for gains. Gold is better than cash in as local currencies can lose value rapidly in the event of a war and the resultant inflation. Gold, however, retains its value.

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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:03:47 05/28/02 Tue

Gold leap sparks rush to unwind bets

APPREHENSION is building up in the gold market about the big bets taken by some banks that the bullion price would stay low. Instead, gold has soared from $278 to $320 an ounce. Traders think it will soon reach $325, the highest since autumn 1999.

This has caused a scramble to unwind bets against the price. Many of these are by big mining companies that 'hedged' their future production. One of the biggest players, Ghana's Ashanti, has been struggling for years after running up hefty losses on hedging. More recently, other gold companies, such as South Africa's Durban Deep, raised new equity to help unwind their selling bets.

The miners have future gold production coming through to offset any selling commitments. US investment banks, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, were active in the gold market. US commercial banks have held big derivative positions. If any of these banks took big